• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

SD said:
Inject the 2nd half of Jan 00 in my veins. Crazy that 2 week period actually could have been more epic if the 23rd system and the 30th didn't mix/change to zr
Click to expand...

98 99 had winter storm in December and jan 00 had one around same time date as December 98. I know commodity weather has their opinions, but what is actually a good match if their is one?
 
Mr. Golf said:
98 99 had winter storm in December and jan 00 had one around same time date as December 98. I know commodity weather has their opinions, but what is actually a good match if their is one?
Click to expand...
I'd have to look into it I don't remember what the qbo/ssts were like for any of those. I'd strongly lean toward the warmer years though just based off what we are seeing so far. Unless something changes drastically at least the first half of December looks warm to me. Maybe we try to flip in the mid month to Christmas time frame but I wouldn't be surprised to see that pushed to near or into January
 
SD said:
I'd have to look into it I don't remember what the qbo/ssts were like for any of those. I'd strongly lean toward the warmer years though just based off what we are seeing so far. Unless something changes drastically at least the first half of December looks warm to me. Maybe we try to flip in the mid month to Christmas time frame but I wouldn't be surprised to see that pushed to near or into January
Click to expand...

It's going to be a very long winter if we have persistent toughing in the GOA.
 
I am going to choose to believe the 12z euro over the 18z GFS for the extended range.
I have no science
Edit: wrong thread
 
Last edited:
What's interesting to me is HM was interested in the 120E standing wave getting ignited but it dont look like it will have anything exciting with that except warm weather continuing. ?
 
SD said:
Inject the 2nd half of Jan 00 in my veins. Crazy that 2 week period actually could have been more epic if the 23rd system and the 30th didn't mix/change to zr
Click to expand...

The chance of anything close to that happening again are about zero at this point.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Mr. Golf said:
What's interesting to me is HM was interested in the 120E standing wave getting ignited but it dont look like it will have anything exciting with that except warm weather continuing. ?
Click to expand...
Nothing works for cold around here anymore. We could get a phase 8 MJO, -EPO, -NAO and +PNA and still manage to torch somehow.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Honestly we cash that blend in ASAP. But lets please not repeat 98. Hint it was hot.

View attachment 52389
Click to expand...
I remember December ‘98 was especially early on. It was my senior year at App St and Boone had a number of days in the upper 60s and low 70s the first couple weeks of the month. The pattern did change just in time for Christmas when I was at home in Concord... there was an ice storm on 12/23–24 and then on the back side of that it turned to light snow overnight Christmas Eve and we woke up to a 1/2 inch of snow on Christmas morning... it’s easy to remember because that was only time I’ve woken up to see the ground snow covered on Christmas morning
 
Bham 99 said:
Green in December?
Click to expand...
Yep! Memories off a bit so not quite first days of December but last days of November which is still nuts .
November 15 2018
aUaDFSW.jpg

November 28 2018
qO79WLU.jpg


December 3 2018

BrbmJ5y.jpg


December 11 2018

jozmRXA.jpg
 
I had a full on winter outlook typed but I accidentally deleted it and I'm too lazy to type it all out again so here is the short and sweet version of it.

Temps: -1 degrees to +3 degrees, honestly depends on how dominant the NS is and if the SER can be beaten back long enough. I'm confident this winter will be colder than previous winters though, even if it is above average overall.

Precip: Equal Chances, if we have more a cold/dry pattern then we could be below average overall but if we have a warm and possibly wet and stormy pattern then we could be above average.

Snowfall: The mountains should do very well due to not only being traditionally climo favored but I foresee lots of NW flow snow. Other areas we could have the classic 85 split, for example the Lake Norman area of Mecklenburg county could very well be above average in snowfall while Charlotte proper is officially below average. Same goes for other areas in NC, SC, GA, etc.

Best Window for Cold/Snow: Unless everything goes to poop, December is looking good and it could extend into early January. February is a wildcard though, and interestingly enough March and even early April could be in play again as we have seen in recent winters.
 
I personally would have BN chances across the entire Northern portion of the U.S down from about the Oregon/Cali border through Northern Nebraska and Iowa to Upstate NY and New England.
 
About a decade or so ago it was thought lack of Arctic sea ice caused more HL blocking. I think the last few years have proven that theory wrong. Record low ice and record strong PV has been whats happening.
 
Brad P brought up an interesting point in his forecast that while this winter might( tbh probably most likely will) be above average overall, we could still end up above average for snow due to low sea ice causing large troughs that bring cold air and result in one or two big storms.

 
SimeonNC said:
Brad P brought up an interesting point in his forecast that while this winter might( tbh probably most likely will) be above average overall, we could still end up above average for snow due to low sea ice causing large troughs that bring cold air and result in one or two big storms.

Click to expand...

My man brad! Best met out there
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
About a decade or so ago it was thought lack of Arctic sea ice caused more HL blocking. I think the last few years have proven that theory wrong. Record low ice and record strong PV has been whats happening.
Click to expand...
Wonder how much snowpack helps, could be the high snowpack keeping it strong! Is the PV a bit displaced to perhaps over Siberia or Greenland instead of over the arctic?
 
SimeonNC said:
Brad P brought up an interesting point in his forecast that while this winter might( tbh probably most likely will) be above average overall, we could still end up above average for snow due to low sea ice causing large troughs that bring cold air and result in one or two big storms.

Click to expand...

Its certainly possible. But we need EPO or NAO help to send it this way instead of Seattle.
 
Lickwx said:
Wonder how much snowpack helps, could be the high snowpack keeping it strong! Is the PV a bit displaced to perhaps over Siberia or Greenland instead of over the arctic?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure its certainly possible. I think where the problem lies is once Dec rolls around and the PV is beast mode the snow up there stops. It literally is a frozen desert up there. Snowfall is important to build glaciers and thicken ice. Even record cold temps up there only freeze the ocean so deep and it still melts in summer. A warm Arctic is still plenty cold enough and warmer equals more snow up there which helps ice buildup. Also blocking there makes us happy down here.
 
It is just me or does Charlotte even warrant a winter forecast? They average so few..and I believe if one storm can thump your average then you really shouldn’t make a snow forecast. Wilkes included. I understand temperature forecasts tho and I believe most bust the hardest on those even into parts of Florida.
 
WRAL is expected to release their snow forecast tonight for RDU. I think they'll go conservative with about 2-4"
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top