LickWx
Member
Yep! Memories off a bit so not quite first days of December but last days of November which is still nuts .
November 15 2018
November 28 2018
December 3 2018
December 11 2018
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts
- Thread starter Fountainguy97
- Start date
November 15 2018
November 28 2018
December 3 2018
December 11 2018
SimeonNC
Member
I had a full on winter outlook typed but I accidentally deleted it and I'm too lazy to type it all out again so here is the short and sweet version of it.
Temps: -1 degrees to +3 degrees, honestly depends on how dominant the NS is and if the SER can be beaten back long enough. I'm confident this winter will be colder than previous winters though, even if it is above average overall.
Precip: Equal Chances, if we have more a cold/dry pattern then we could be below average overall but if we have a warm and possibly wet and stormy pattern then we could be above average.
Snowfall: The mountains should do very well due to not only being traditionally climo favored but I foresee lots of NW flow snow. Other areas we could have the classic 85 split, for example the Lake Norman area of Mecklenburg county could very well be above average in snowfall while Charlotte proper is officially below average. Same goes for other areas in NC, SC, GA, etc.
Best Window for Cold/Snow: Unless everything goes to poop, December is looking good and it could extend into early January. February is a wildcard though, and interestingly enough March and even early April could be in play again as we have seen in recent winters.
Temps: -1 degrees to +3 degrees, honestly depends on how dominant the NS is and if the SER can be beaten back long enough. I'm confident this winter will be colder than previous winters though, even if it is above average overall.
Precip: Equal Chances, if we have more a cold/dry pattern then we could be below average overall but if we have a warm and possibly wet and stormy pattern then we could be above average.
Snowfall: The mountains should do very well due to not only being traditionally climo favored but I foresee lots of NW flow snow. Other areas we could have the classic 85 split, for example the Lake Norman area of Mecklenburg county could very well be above average in snowfall while Charlotte proper is officially below average. Same goes for other areas in NC, SC, GA, etc.
Best Window for Cold/Snow: Unless everything goes to poop, December is looking good and it could extend into early January. February is a wildcard though, and interestingly enough March and even early April could be in play again as we have seen in recent winters.
BHS1975
Member
Fountainguy97
Member
One thing is certain. We are a complete 180 in November compared to the last 2 Novembers and honestly many others in the 2010s.
At this point I'm 100% happy with seeing a break in the monotony of recent OND patterns.
At this point I'm 100% happy with seeing a break in the monotony of recent OND patterns.
This is encouraging! My gut feeling is for a change to cold literally, the same time we changed to warm the last two winters.
NoSnowATL
Member
SimeonNC
Member
SimeonNC
Member
I personally would have BN chances across the entire Northern portion of the U.S down from about the Oregon/Cali border through Northern Nebraska and Iowa to Upstate NY and New England.
SimeonNC
Member
The snowpack in Canada is looking really healthy, should help with any future cold shots that may come down
Smdh
About a decade or so ago it was thought lack of Arctic sea ice caused more HL blocking. I think the last few years have proven that theory wrong. Record low ice and record strong PV has been whats happening.
SimeonNC
Member
Brad P brought up an interesting point in his forecast that while this winter might( tbh probably most likely will) be above average overall, we could still end up above average for snow due to low sea ice causing large troughs that bring cold air and result in one or two big storms.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
My man brad! Best met out there
LickWx
Member
Wonder how much snowpack helps, could be the high snowpack keeping it strong! Is the PV a bit displaced to perhaps over Siberia or Greenland instead of over the arctic?
Its certainly possible. But we need EPO or NAO help to send it this way instead of Seattle.
SimeonNC
Member
He even says that his below average snowfall forecast is the one he has the least confidence on.
I'm not sure its certainly possible. I think where the problem lies is once Dec rolls around and the PV is beast mode the snow up there stops. It literally is a frozen desert up there. Snowfall is important to build glaciers and thicken ice. Even record cold temps up there only freeze the ocean so deep and it still melts in summer. A warm Arctic is still plenty cold enough and warmer equals more snow up there which helps ice buildup. Also blocking there makes us happy down here.
It is just me or does Charlotte even warrant a winter forecast? They average so few..and I believe if one storm can thump your average then you really shouldn’t make a snow forecast. Wilkes included. I understand temperature forecasts tho and I believe most bust the hardest on those even into parts of Florida.
WRAL is expected to release their snow forecast tonight for RDU. I think they'll go conservative with about 2-4"