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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Brick Tamland said:
Go ahead. It's been laid out with examples why some are looking at the FV3 and seeing if it does as good with this system inside 6 days as it was with the other. It is really the only other storm we have had so far that is even worth mentioning as far as how the models did inside 6 days. We all know all the models have done bad at one time or another outside 7 days, so that's really not a point. I just don't get why some are all over folks for looking at the FV3 and thinking it might be right again. It's really only the second threat we have had to see how it does anyway. It feels like some folks just want to crush others' hopes. If you don't think it's right, then no need in seeing if there is a threat for next week and move along.
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Stop attacking me. It’s hypocritical of you to complain of not allowing attacks and that’s seemingly all you do. I haven’t responded to any of your posts and have no intentions to. If you like the FV then that’s great. We will see how it works out in the next day or so.
 
Kylo said:
Stop attacking me. It’s hypocritical of you to complain of not allowing attacks and that’s seemingly all you do. I haven’t responded to any of your posts and have no intentions to. If you like the FV then that’s great. We will see how it works out in the next day or so.
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An attack? My reply was no more of an attack than your post that I replied to.
 
Rain Cold said:
"I just don't get why some are all over folks for looking at the FV3 and thinking it might be right again."

This is a straw man argument. Nobody is all over anybody for looking at the FV3 and thinking that it might be right again. It very well could be. But there is a quite a difference between being all over somebody and questioning the validity of a 6 day forecast from a model that has only been tested 1 time.
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There have been a few other light icing/CAD events in Western NC this year but I didn't follow them that closely. From what I remember though it wasn't overly cold with them and was in line with what other modeling indicated. The biggest question with this storm is if the HP position/strength is correct AND if the thermals are. It's so much different from the Euro but the regular GFS isn't that far off, it just has less of a cold push.

It will definitely be a great test for the FV3, the runs today are critical IMO. If it holds it then I would expect other models to fold, if it starts backing off then that will be a sign it's out to lunch.
 
Kylo said:
Again...piss off. Stop replying to me and trying to instigate stuff. Your such a hypocrite.
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Really? I am not trying to start anything. Your post to me sounded like you had an attitude that anyone who trusted the FV3 is an idiot and you could go back and pick apart the examples that snowlover laid out for the December storm if you wanted to. If you don't think it's a threat, then fine, let those who do keep seeing what happens. But your post made it seem like those that are following it are idiots.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Really? I am not trying to start anything. Your post to me sounded like you had an attitude that anyone who trusted the FV3 is an idiot and you could go back and pick apart the examples that snowlover laid out for the December storm if you wanted to.
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You are right...FV rocks. Now can we end this, I promise to never disparage the FV again.
 
Question to the mods... IF the FV3 hangs onto this threat today can I be the one to start the thread? If nothing else it will be useful to archive how it performs with things like temps, dewpoints, p-type, 5h look, etc for future storms.
 
Sorry. Maybe that is not the tone he meant, but that is how it seemed to me with that post.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe NC gets back to back storms. Also another one showing up for the 22nd. I think we get one before the end of the month, though. The signals are growing stronger and stronger.
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My call earlier this month was for WNC to cash in before the end of the month with a significant storm. It would be nice to put others in play. Last 10 days of Feb seems like the window. Looks as promising as any other time this winter. I think we need a hit while the SER is pushing out bc once we/ if we get all troughey again it’s going to be difficult imo
 
snowlover91 said:
Question to the mods... IF the FV3 hangs onto this threat today can I be the one to start the thread? If nothing else it will be useful to archive how it performs with things like temps, dewpoints, p-type, 5h look, etc for future storms.
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I'm good with this from an archival stand point, sure.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
snowlover91 said:
I'm not sure what people are talking about with the FV3 busting horribly. Every storm I've tracked on it inside 6 days it's been quite reliable and very good. If people are referring to the anafrontal snow bust, well all models busted horribly on that one. I can't think of any threats that the FV3 has consistently shown for my area inside 6 days, the only threat it's shown here was the early December storm. Now outside 6-7 days it can have some wild solutions but inside 6 days I think it's a very good model. I just showed a good example in the February thread of how it matches up best with current observations vs other models from 6 days ago.
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On the weathernerds website, soundings were suspect.. and the precipitation type/accumulation maps were horrible back in December. It had areas getting creamed with Wintry weather were it didn't make sense.

I'm not 100% sure if the modeling maps were just being generated wrong, or what.. but definitely be careful with the weathernerds soundings and verify the longitude-latitude.. something may be wrong there.

A few of us cross verified each other and something was wrong on all our ends. Clicking around the CAE area had us as heavy snow, sleet, and zr for the event.. and of course, that was not even close.
 
Shawn said:
On the weathernerds website, soundings were suspect.. and the precipitation type/accumulation maps were horrible back in December. It had areas getting creamed with Wintry weather were it didn't make sense.

I'm not 100% sure if the modeling maps were just being generated wrong, or what.. but definitely be careful with the weathernerds soundings and verify the longitude-latitude.. something may be wrong there.
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Yeah a lot of the FV3 snow maps from TT and weathernerds have been suspect. It seems whatever algorithms the sites use are a bit off and didn't reflect what the model was actually showing. I believe the Pivotal maps are the only snow maps that match up pretty well with what the FV3 forecasts.
 
metwannabe said:
I'm good with this from an archival stand point, sure.

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Cool thanks! I'll wait until 00z tonight and see if it still has it, today is the point where the FV3 will either back off or double down on it's solution. If it's still showing it 00z tonight I'll start the thread!
 
metwannabe said:
I'm good with this from an archival stand point, sure.

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From a logical standpoint I disagree and say no. It makes no sense to create a thread of a storm one model alone has. Get support from any other semi reliable model and it's fine. Support being defined as 2 or more data sets agreeing.
 
ForsythSnow said:
From a logical standpoint I disagree and say no. It makes no sense to create a thread of a storm one model alone has. Get support from any other semi reliable model and it's fine. Support being defined as 2 or more data sets agreeing.
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This is a weather forum looking for winter weather in the South, we don't use logic....:cool:
 
ForsythSnow said:
From a logical standpoint I disagree and say no. It makes no sense to create a thread of a storm one model alone has. Get support from any other semi reliable model and it's fine. Support being defined as 2 or more data sets agreeing.
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Brick Tamland said:
They all take easy classes to stay eligible. Classes that are offered to every student. There is no way most of them could stay in school if they didn't with the demands on their time and how often they are away from school. It is the same at every school with any type of athletic program. Don't kid yourself. A lot of these kids would not even be able to get into schools like UNC, State, and Duke. So you really think they could do the same work as every other student? My nephew is at ECU, and has a class where all he does is watch movies and then writes a paper on the movie, and he's not even an athlete.
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I don't dispute most of what you say. However, the difference is, UNC went above and beyond the typical "easy" class by creating an entire curriculum of no-show classes (something no other school does to my knowledge); and then in order to stay within the letter of the law they ensured that some of the general student population were also enrolled (never mind that such classes were skewed heavily in the direction of athletes). It was so fraudulent that they were sanctioned heavily by their accreditation commission. Neither State nor Duke has been penalized as such. Bottom line, UNC cheated to gain/maintain an unfair advantage over their competitors. So don't kid yourself.
 
Poimen said:
I don't dispute most of what you say. However, the difference is, UNC went above and beyond the typical "easy" class by creating an entire curriculum of no-show classes (something no other school does to my knowledge); and then in order to stay within the letter of the law they ensured that some of the general student population were also enrolled (never mind that such classes were skewed heavily in the direction of athletes). It was so fraudulent that they were sanctioned heavily by their accreditation commission. Neither State nor Duke has been penalized as such. Bottom line, UNC cheated to gain/maintain an unfair advantage over their competitors. So don't kid yourself.
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Brick Tamland said:
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No doesn't have to be a bad thing. It will save from more disappointment like this year already has brought to many. I'm only recommending this to help. But if you really insist then if it falls apart it probably would have been better not created in my opinion. And remember that last word. Opinion. You don't have to follow my word on whether to create one or not.
metwannabe said:
I always have to go back and double check what I typed when @Jimmy Hypocracy likes my post.... Lol
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Lol is his like a curse now?
 
ForsythSnow said:
No doesn't have to be a bad thing. It will save from more disappointment like this year already has brought to many. I'm only recommending this to help. But if you really insist then if it falls apart it probably would have been better not created in my opinion. And remember that last word. Opinion. You don't have to follow my word on whether to create one or not.

Lol is his like a curse now?
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Why does it really matter if that happens?
 
The FV3 being god thing will never end from some people if the FV3 wins again here. I think I'm going to post the dis gun be gud gif for tonight on this.
 
I would normally throw the FV3 out, like any other model..

It's just.. I haven't tracked enough with it to know if it's whacko or not. What if it really is able to nail something like it's currently showing up to 300 hrs + out.. it had kinda the same look as this current 12z bomb for the carolinas and ga... to begin with.. and it backed off.. now witn 192 hrs, its back.

I am torn.

Outside wanting the ice storm here, I want it to be right. I want a model that can sniff out something vs the Euro.. i'm tired of "King Euro" and everyone getting down b/c its empty.
 
At the very least, while I'm continuing to not really look at models as much, with the H5 look, its kinda been Euro suite/FV3 vs GFS/others on if we have winter chances or if 95% of us need to hang it up. So even if the FV3 loses here on a winter storm, I'd like for it to be right on the colder solutions.

Seriously, it's been a very mixed bag on the FV3. Some are calling it a complete joke, including the cranky guy and others have said it can pick up things better. I still lean towards what I've said in that if you're loving it over one storm, who knows if it's just the blind squirrel finding a nut or real yet?
 
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