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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Webberweather53 said:
You guys would have been absolutely stunned by how good the tex-mex was in Tucson on my way out of Phoenix, they also served authentic spanish rice down there too. I personally hate refried beans the way they're cooked in the SE US, but the food was just so damn good I absolutely destroyed it there and really had to sit & reminisce in my car for like 10 mins a while after. 10/10 for Nana's kitchen if you ever go down that way.
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Reminisce..... that's what you call it. Ok

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
It’s gonna be ok! Robert says so, possibly!??C8E12636-3ACA-4162-97CC-8768CCB85E63.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
You guys would have been absolutely stunned by how good the tex-mex was in Tucson on my way out of Phoenix, they also served authentic spanish rice down there too. I personally hate refried beans the way they're cooked in the SE US, but the food was just so damn good I absolutely destroyed it there and really had to sit & reminisce in my car for like 10 mins a while after. 10/10 for Nana's kitchen if you ever go down that way.
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Speaking of which I meant to share a few pics from that trip here, man it was unreal all of these are unedited and were taken w/ a cellphone.

Colorado river below, right before you get to the Grand Canyon
Jan 2019 Phoenix, AZ roadtrip pics.jpg


Phoenix Jan 2019 roadtrip pic 2.jpg


Coolest thing ever was to see a cactus lying in the snow.

January 2019 Phoenix Roadtrip pic.jpg
 
Tenacious-NAO, deathly cold, roof collapsing snows! LMFAO
 
Webberweather53 said:
You guys would have been absolutely stunned by how good the tex-mex was in Tucson on my way out of Phoenix, they also served authentic spanish rice down there too. I personally hate refried beans the way they're cooked in the SE US, but the food was just so damn good I absolutely destroyed it there and really had to sit & reminisce in my car for like 10 mins a while after. 10/10 for Nana's kitchen if you ever go down that way.
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I was in Chicago just after Thanksgiving and drove to Little Mexico (on the southwest side of the city) for some authentic Mexican dishes. There is a little place called El Cortez. It was the best Mexican food I have ever eaten. Also had some drink made with rice milk. Can't recall off the top of my head what it was called, but it was very good!
 
When the whammy thread has moved on from complaining about winter to talking food... yep winter is
7bee5f5e18f184c90769d1edde3c404f.gif


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Eventually, you’ve complained about 36 different ways this winter sucks, and there’s nothing left!?? Everybody loves food! Maybe there should be a food thread where everybody posts pictures of what they are eating and favorite restaurants!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Eventually, you’ve complained about 36 different ways this winter sucks, and there’s nothing left!?? Everybody loves food! Maybe there should be a food thread where everybody posts pictures of what they are eating and favorite restaurants!?
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Or a beer thread so I can keep a tab on what this winter has done to me ☹️
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think our eruption came in the form of an MJO crapfest and a Niño that never fully materialized
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The big elephant in the room that JB & others don't want to acknowledge is the influence from background warming of the climate especially when we've loaded the dice towards warm winter after warm winter year after year with increasing frequency. Every time it warms up it's near record warm like what might be coming in early Feb, a cold pattern shows up like we're seeing now, it's modest & transient... It's also pretty obvious that the long-term snow averages for many here are dropping like a rock minus a few exceptions in already climatologically favored areas.

Sigh.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The big elephant in the room that JB & others don't want to acknowledge is the influence from background warming of the climate especially when we've loaded the dice towards warm winter after warm winter year after year with increasing frequency. Every time it warms up it's near record warm like what might be coming in early Feb, a cold pattern shows up like we're seeing now, it's modest & transient... It's also pretty obvious that the long-term snow averages for many here are dropping like a rock minus a few exceptions in already climatologically favored areas.

Sigh.
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The frustrating thing is that it can and does still get cold. It just hasn’t had any staying power
 
Webberweather53 said:
The big elephant in the room that JB & others don't want to acknowledge is the influence from background warming of the climate especially when we've loaded the dice towards warm winter after warm winter year after year with increasing frequency. Every time it warms up it's near record warm like what might be coming in early Feb, a cold pattern shows up like we're seeing now, it's modest & transient... It's also pretty obvious that the long-term snow averages for many here are dropping like a rock minus a few exceptions in already climatologically favored areas.

Sigh.
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What's amazing is the large-scale forcing this year really wasn't that favorable for warmth overall and we're seeing it to a significant degree anyway...
Just wait until natural forcing is actually conducive again, we'll roast and end up record or near record warm (again) for individual months or perhaps an entire winter even.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
 
Webberweather53 said:
What's amazing is the large-scale forcing this year really wasn't that favorable for warmth overall and we're seeing it to a significant degree anyway...
Just wait until natural forcing is actually conducive again, we'll roast and end up record or near record warm (again) for individual months or perhaps an entire winter even.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
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Oh its always easier to get warmth and it never fails

Isnt it ironic how that works
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The frustrating thing is that it can and does still get cold. It just hasn’t had any staying power
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Yep, that's essentially what happens collectively over a very long stretch of time when the climate warms (obviously a several year period isn't "climate" quite to the degree of a 30-40 year period + trend). We have to be underneath the influence of a longwave trough in the seasonal means to even have a snowball's chance in hell to be normal or below for a month or seasonal period, if the pattern naturally favors ridging or a torch (take Dec 2015 for ex or Feb 2017, etc.) it ends up being virtually record warm, that's not happening by chance.
 
I would like to compare this years 500 mb features with those that produced cold and snow years ago and see what it is we’ve been lacking..? -AO and -NAO just seem so hard to come by. Western and AK ridging are still pretty common. We’re definately missing something though
 
Even looking at the record cold up north it moderates pretty quick Chicago may go above freezing by Saturday
 
One would think a solar minimum would eventually do its job so we can get a little bit of heat content removed from the ocean. Funny how we can lock in a -NAO in April like it’s nothing but can’t get it when it matters?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I would like to compare this years 500 mb features with those that produced cold and snow years ago and see what it is we’ve been lacking..? -AO and -NAO just seem so hard to come by. Western and AK ridging are still pretty common. We’re definately missing something though
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The increased frequency of -EPOs in the 2010s (especially from 2012-13 & beyond) is a question the research community I actively participate in is digging into and I can speak for those who are working to solve this that it's still unknown atm. NAO/AO is believed by many of my colleagues and the community at large to have a significant component that's tied to multidecadal natural variability but there's a large contingency like myself that thinks we're pushing the system to favor +NAOs as the climate warms, in which one part involves the Hadley Cells expanding which pushes the storm tracks and relatively warmer subtropical highs poleward. The mid-latitude jet also strengthens at the height of the tropopause even as the surface meridional temperature gradient decreases as the arctic warms disproportinately faster than the tropics.

More intense Rossby Waves in the northern hemisphere due to the existence of the Himalayas masks any long-term trend attributable to the background climate but the isolation of the southern vortex allows these tendencies to manifest and show up in the data more easily. The two main competing schools of thought on what controls the southern vortex's variability are that it's either the aforementioned influence from the background climate or ozone destruction from CFCs earlier in the 20th century have predisposed the Antarctic vortex to remain intense well into the early-mid 21st century as it tries to steadily recover. Other factors are likely contributing but there's no denying we've been observing a statistically significant positive, upward trend in the antarctic oscillation and intensity of the southern vortex over the course of the reliable record.

The northern vortex has also become more positive in the last few decades (i.e. more +AO/NAO since the satellite era began), but like I said earlier, because the Northern Hemisphere has huge mountain ranges, especially the Himalayas, which significantly amp up the intensity of the longwave troughs and ridges here, it's likely masking any underlying trend that would be due to CFCs, a warming background climate, other lurking variables or all of the above.

I'd definitely be willing to wager we'd see a much bigger trend towards +NAO/+AOs in recent years and decades if it wasn't for the existence of the Himalayas.

Anyway lol didn't mean to rant but thought a few tidbits of information like this would be useful to some here.

Seasonally averaged southern annular mode (SAM) (essentially the equivalent of the AO but in the southern hemisphere)
Marshall-SAM-F2.png
 
Epic rain coming on the NAM... weenies jumping everywhere
 
Webberweather53 said:
The increased frequency of -EPOs in the 2010s (especially from 2012-13 & beyond) is a question the research community I actively participate in is digging into and I can speak for those who are working to solve this that it's still unknown atm. NAO/AO is believed by many of my colleagues and the community at large to have a significant component that's tied to multidecadal natural variability but there's a large contingency like myself that thinks we're pushing the system to favor +NAOs as the climate warms, in which one part involves the Hadley Cells expanding which pushes the storm tracks and relatively warmer subtropical highs poleward. The mid-latitude jet also strengthens at the height of the tropopause even as the surface meridional temperature gradient decreases as the arctic warms disproportinately faster than the tropics.

More intense Rossby Waves in the northern hemisphere due to the existence of the Himalayas masks any long-term trend attributable to the background climate but the isolation of the southern vortex allows these tendencies to manifest and show up in the data more easily. The two main competing schools of thought on what controls the southern vortex's variability are that it's either the aforementioned influence from the background climate or ozone destruction from CFCs earlier in the 20th century have predisposed the Antarctic vortex to remain intense well into the early-mid 21st century as it tries to steadily recover. Other factors are likely contributing but there's no denying we've been observing a statistically significant positive, upward trend in the antarctic oscillation and intensity of the southern vortex over the course of the reliable record.

The northern vortex has also become more positive in the last few decades (i.e. more +AO/NAO since the satellite era began), but like I said earlier, because the Northern Hemisphere has huge mountain ranges, especially the Himalayas, which significantly amp up the intensity of the longwave troughs and ridges here, it's likely masking any underlying trend that would be due to CFCs, a warming background climate, other lurking variables or all of the above.

I'd definitely be willing to wager we'd see a much bigger trend towards +NAO/+AOs in recent years and decades if it wasn't for the existence of the Himalayas.

Anyway lol didn't mean to rant but thought a few tidbits of information like this would be useful to some here.

Seasonally averaged southern annular mode (SAM) (essentially the equivalent of the AO but in the southern hemisphere)
View attachment 13926
Click to expand...

Here's what the NAO looks like in the past few centuries, luckily thanks to so many countries in Europe being global superpowers during the 17th, 18th, & 19th centuries and the proximity of the epicenters of the NAO to Europe, we actually have a very long period of record from actual surface stations!

There's a lot of year-year variability but also pretty noticeable multidecadal trends and the NAO has been more positive since the 1990s.
naots2_3.gif
 
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