• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Tarheel1 said:
If I ever learn how to post GIFs , y’all will be in trouble
Click to expand...
You see the option for "Add GIF" next to "Attach Files" under the posting window? If not, it might be turned off. :)
 
Rain Cold said:
You see the option for "Add GIF" next to "Attach Files" under the posting window? If not, it might be turned off. :)
Click to expand...
Can you do it from mobile?
 
Lots of energy flying around = no storm, but wishcasting!
There’s also a lot of torch floating around!
 
Tarheel1 said:
It would be better! I would only get snow once every 20 years!, wait, I can get that here! :(
Click to expand...
Find your gif. Right click. Copy. Click on the little picture icon above the posting box. A window will pop up. There's a little icon in there that looks like a chain. Click it. Paste. Click insert. Wait for the gif to appear in your reply. Hit Post reply. Boom.
 
As bad as I hate to say it,but James Spann's conservative take on model whatching has worked out good for him lately. He has been pretty much been dead on with his forecast here locally. More often than not, in the deep south, sckeptisims it how we should look at winter storms on model runs. Sure you might miss one every once in awhile but for the most part it is the best course of action.
 
Tagat said:
As bad as I hate to say it,but James Spann's conservative take on model whatching has worked out good for him lately. He has been pretty much been dead on with his forecast here locally. More often than not, in the deep south, sckeptisims it how we should look at winter storms on model runs. Sure you might miss one every once in awhile but for the most part it is the best course of action.
Click to expand...

Correct, just think if he has posted all the clown maps the past month, people would be killing him right now. Safe to say snow in the Deep South is hard you literally have to have everything fall in place and that doesn’t happen every year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SnowNiner said:
Wow, lol. Lesson learned. SE winter seasonal forecasts simply have no real forecasting value. Just fun speculation.

View attachment 12776
Click to expand...
I think if you just blindly go +2 - +4 on the temps and a blanket normal to below normal on snowfall, you'll be right for most of the area a large majority of the time. It's really that simple. At least until we get into a different decadal regime, assuming we ever do.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think if you just blindly go +2 - +4 on the temps and a blanket normal to below normal on snowfall, you'll be right for most of the area a large majority of the time. It's really that simple. At least until we get into a different decadal regime, assuming we ever do.
Click to expand...

It's amazing considering all the things that "were on our side" this year and we're still way above normal. Next year or the year after, how could anyone actually issue a below normal seasonal forecast for the SE anymore? It just doesn't seem like it's ever going to happen. If any year was going to go below, it was this one, and it's not. Just wants to be warm for some reason that no one can seem to pinpoint why.
 
olhausen said:
I was like a kid on Christmas. Before this storm my biggest storm was around 6 inches of snow. I had been waiting for the big one since I moved here in 2006 and I knew this was the one when we flipped to snow so early that morning. Originally we weren’t suppose to flip to snow until 4 or 5 pm and were only forecasted to get 3-6 inches. The night before though the models started bringing the cold much earlier and this was the result.
Click to expand...
How much did you end up getting? Looks like about 20" on your table.
 
SnowNiner said:
It's amazing considering all the things that "were on our side" this year and we're still way above normal. Next year or the year after, how could anyone actually issue a below normal seasonal forecast for the SE anymore? It just doesn't seem like it's ever going to happen. If any year was going to go below, it was this one, and it's not. Just wants to be warm for some reason that no one can seem to pinpoint why.
Click to expand...
I think a lot of it is due to the lack of blocking. Something is forcing that, though. I don't know what. Could be the change in the climate is driving tropical forcing into a state that is unfavorable to blocking. Or, it could be that the stratosphere is acting to preclude blocking. Or the ocean currents or something. You read a lot of different smart people who have different ideas about these things. I don't know that anyone really knows the answer or even if it's possible to know, given the complexities of the interrelationships of various environmental systems. It doesn't mean we shouldn't continue to explore and test ideas, but when it comes to forecasting seasonally, you have to give tremendous weight to the bias in recent years. That's my opinion, and others may disagree.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think a lot of it is due to the lack of blocking. Something is forcing that, though. I don't know what. Could be the change in the climate is driving tropical forcing into a state that is unfavorable to blocking. Or, it could be that the stratosphere is acting to preclude blocking. Or the ocean currents or something. You read a lot of different smart people who have different ideas about these things. I don't know that anyone really knows the answer or even if it's possible to know, given the complexities of the interrelationships of various environmental systems. It doesn't mean we shouldn't continue to explore and test ideas, but when it comes to forecasting seasonally, you have to give tremendous weight to the bias in recent years. That's my opinion, and others may disagree.
Click to expand...

Yep I agree. Persistence forecasting. Our best case scenario for many years has been periods of of -EPO/+PNA. We get bouts of it then we warm. Those are our winters until whatever it is that's causing us to not get blocking changes.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yep I agree. Persistence forecasting. Our best case scenario for many years has been periods of of -EPO/+PNA. We get bouts of it then we warm. Those are our winters until whatever it is that's causing us to not get blocking changes.
Click to expand...
The -EPO/+PNA junk works well west and north of a line from Rocky Mount to just south of Raleigh, to just east of Charlotte. South and east of there, we get stale breadcrumbs, with little green splotches of mold on them.
 
But all the models promised me +PNA, -AO, and -NAO!??? What happened??? I guess I didn’t have my MJO working!
 
The icon is about to throw out a banger...... 3,2,1
 
Should I tell everyone in the storm thread they’re tracking a cloud canopy or just let it go?
 
I'll be completely honest with y'all, whine in here all you want, heck I don't care if you make predictions of how horrible the rest of the winter is going to be because you saw a carpenter ant shake hands with a wooly worm, but I'd be careful about taking shots at those of us still monitoring/posting/following a specific storm threat. Some of those comments are borderline..... just my opinion and a friendly request to refrain from that please. Thank you
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top