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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

I swear the models have gotten worse, Euro included. When I first got into this in 2013 at least it felt like they had a clue and we gave them a little respect. Now they spit out some trash and we don't even give it consideration lol.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I swear the models have gotten worse, Euro included. When I first got into this in 2013 at least it felt like they had a clue and we gave them a little respect. Now they spit out some trash and we don't even give it consideration lol.
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One forecast error, leads to another error, then another, next thing you know the compounding effect of the errors ruin the entire global forecast the further in time it goes.

Maybe increasing the model resolution has something to do with it.
 
Shawn said:
Can we please not upgrade the GFS with that horrible FV3?
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Is it worth it to shut down the govt forever? Something to consider since the FV3 would then never become operational. I happen to know that Trump hates the FV3 and loves the old GFS. That was the real reason for the shutdown. The wall was just cover.
 
GaWx said:
Is it worth it to shut down the govt forever? Something to consider since the FV3 would then never become operational. I happen to know that Trump hates the FV3 and loves the old GFS. That was the real reason for the shutdown. The wall was just cover.
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That’s deep
 
I'm glad I didn't get involved in looking at what garbage GFS was showing yesterday here in bama with those snow totals... This winter is beyond horrible SMH
 
At least I don't have to worry about coming back from the cliff because I can bet y'all that were not getting any snow for the remainder of the winter here
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I swear the models have gotten worse, Euro included. When I first got into this in 2013 at least it felt like they had a clue and we gave them a little respect. Now they spit out some trash and we don't even give it consideration lol.
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I think they have become worse, too. And I think it's because our weather just doesn't act like it used to. It's basing things on data written for the past, and those analogs, indicies, and patterns just don't seem to work out like they used to.
 
I wonder if the models are getting worse or if we just look at 12 day storms that never materialize and think the models are bad because of it?
 
Rain Cold said:
I wonder if the models are getting worse or if we just look at 12 day storms that never materialize and think the models are bad because of it?
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We've had storms about 7 days out on the FV3 not materialize the last three weeks. And the ensembles have been just as bad.
 
Brick Tamland said:
We've had storms about 7 days out on the FV3 not materialize the last three weeks. And the ensembles have been just as bad.
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This kind of thing has been going on the whole entire length of time I’ve watched models. I think our expectations may be slightly out of whack.
 
It hasn't been this quite here in a long time.

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Brick Tamland said:
We've had storms about 7 days out on the FV3 not materialize the last three weeks. And the ensembles have been just as bad.
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The FV3 is the reason for this “the models are bad” bias. It’s not plural, most of the blame is 110% on the FV3. Just because it nailed the dynamics of one storm, doesn’t mean it should be trusted for any of the following systems or patterns.

The FV3 is fun to look at for folks because of the parade of fantasy storms on the Op runs. You don’t see the Euro dumping fantasy snow in the SE for a reason....it’s substantially better than the FV3 and I feel like the dreadful negative bias for 500mb heights is to blame.



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