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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

I swear the models have gotten worse, Euro included. When I first got into this in 2013 at least it felt like they had a clue and we gave them a little respect. Now they spit out some trash and we don't even give it consideration lol.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I swear the models have gotten worse, Euro included. When I first got into this in 2013 at least it felt like they had a clue and we gave them a little respect. Now they spit out some trash and we don't even give it consideration lol.
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One forecast error, leads to another error, then another, next thing you know the compounding effect of the errors ruin the entire global forecast the further in time it goes.

Maybe increasing the model resolution has something to do with it.
 
Shawn said:
Can we please not upgrade the GFS with that horrible FV3?
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Is it worth it to shut down the govt forever? Something to consider since the FV3 would then never become operational. I happen to know that Trump hates the FV3 and loves the old GFS. That was the real reason for the shutdown. The wall was just cover.
 
GaWx said:
Is it worth it to shut down the govt forever? Something to consider since the FV3 would then never become operational. I happen to know that Trump hates the FV3 and loves the old GFS. That was the real reason for the shutdown. The wall was just cover.
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That’s deep
 
I'm glad I didn't get involved in looking at what garbage GFS was showing yesterday here in bama with those snow totals... This winter is beyond horrible SMH
 
At least I don't have to worry about coming back from the cliff because I can bet y'all that were not getting any snow for the remainder of the winter here
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I swear the models have gotten worse, Euro included. When I first got into this in 2013 at least it felt like they had a clue and we gave them a little respect. Now they spit out some trash and we don't even give it consideration lol.
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I think they have become worse, too. And I think it's because our weather just doesn't act like it used to. It's basing things on data written for the past, and those analogs, indicies, and patterns just don't seem to work out like they used to.
 
I wonder if the models are getting worse or if we just look at 12 day storms that never materialize and think the models are bad because of it?
 
Rain Cold said:
I wonder if the models are getting worse or if we just look at 12 day storms that never materialize and think the models are bad because of it?
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We've had storms about 7 days out on the FV3 not materialize the last three weeks. And the ensembles have been just as bad.
 
Brick Tamland said:
We've had storms about 7 days out on the FV3 not materialize the last three weeks. And the ensembles have been just as bad.
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This kind of thing has been going on the whole entire length of time I’ve watched models. I think our expectations may be slightly out of whack.
 
It hasn't been this quite here in a long time.

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Brick Tamland said:
We've had storms about 7 days out on the FV3 not materialize the last three weeks. And the ensembles have been just as bad.
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The FV3 is the reason for this “the models are bad” bias. It’s not plural, most of the blame is 110% on the FV3. Just because it nailed the dynamics of one storm, doesn’t mean it should be trusted for any of the following systems or patterns.

The FV3 is fun to look at for folks because of the parade of fantasy storms on the Op runs. You don’t see the Euro dumping fantasy snow in the SE for a reason....it’s substantially better than the FV3 and I feel like the dreadful negative bias for 500mb heights is to blame.



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I hate to say it but I know of three L's the Euro has taken specifically for this winter right off the back as well (and maybe even another one or two), but for me, they're L's because I don't have the self control to not look beyond 192 or look at just 500 mb maps, I look at both those maps and the surface maps. I've gotten to the point where I don't take beyond 240 very seriously but that might be as far as I can go.

I hope the next upgrade doesn't end up seemingly being a downgrade for the Euro as the upgrade the Euro got fairly recently hasn't really been one.
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
I wonder what will ppl do if that snow map was to ever verify
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As fun as it would be at first, it would be a disaster. If you had 30+ inches of heavy wet snow fall, it would be the winter storm equivalent to 4/27. While everything would shut down, the damage to trees and the powergrid would be staggering. The 9-12 inch snow last year whipped us in East AL, I couldn't imagine the damage three times that amount would bring.
 
Arcc said:
As fun as it would be at first, it would be a disaster. If you had 30+ inches of heavy wet snow fall, it would be the winter storm equivalent to 4/27. While everything would shut down, the damage to trees and the powergrid would be staggering. The 9-12 inch snow last year whipped us in East AL, I couldn't imagine the damage three times that amount would bring.
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I agree but it definitely would put an end to this miserable of a winter
 
Starting to think the delayed release of the FV3 had nothing to do with the gov't shutdown and everything to do with it sucks.....

edit: And saying it sucks is probably a little too extreme, but it sure seems to be showing a severe CAD cold bias and that sucks.
 
metwannabe said:
Starting to think the delayed release of the FV3 had nothing to do with the gov't shutdown and everything to do with it sucks.....

edit: And saying it sucks is probably a little too extreme, but it sure seems to be showing a severe CAD cold bias and that sucks.
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one can only hope...
 
Honestly, does anyone really want snow in the spring ? Once March is here, I think pretty much everyone is fed up with winter and ready to move on to some warmer weather.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Honestly, does anyone really want snow in the spring ? Once March is here, I think pretty much everyone is fed up with winter and ready to move on to some warmer weather.
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For people who actually live in the Southeast the answer is yes
 
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