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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Webberweather53 said:
1926-27 was blowtorch warm here but we scored 2 big dogs the only 2 times it got cold that year so it's the epitome of what Brick is saying. It's the only winter on record that produced multiple one foot snowstorms in GSO.
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And of course this one...my favorite all time event, even over 1/00.

Hopefully Brick doesn't read this. Yes, it can be warm but we still need a good pattern, even if transient, to score.

cd56.105.166.135.28.8.24.41.prcp.png
 
To the others that nailed the forecast, hats off to you. We never waiverd. Even when the Globals showed 4” lollipops yesterday. Solid forecasting guys and gals
 
if you would have told me a week ago the first part of feb would be in the seventies I would have said no way! I'm so depressed.
 
Figured I'd offer my 2 cents and some change opinion here about school closures after reading about that, in my cases.

They've become much more trigger happy than I remember from before I graduated HS. There are good reasons though most likely that I don't remember other cases (the case of tropical storms hitting us with significant weather didn't happen too much). School got cancelled and I'm pretty sure the city shut down for both Irma and Michael for at least one day, and then last year I had a snow day from school for moderate snow that didn't stick. I'm pretty sure the local schools that are below college just had a delay though and went on as scheduled. I think school also got cancelled for Matthew in the area, but I'm less certain there.

Outside Irma those cancellations were just for one day though I believe. The local schools turned into shelters for the coast for Irma. That was a very good deed by the city.

It's probably not a bad idea to cancel schools for tropical storm weather, just in my case they didn't cancel for severe weather before I graduated HS and I'm doubtful I had any Irma's or Michael's back then.
 
We've become so reliant on models that we have forgotten how to use knowledge, training, and experience. Probably get flamed for that, but it's largely the truth.
 
They need to use that meteorology degree instead of relying on some inconsistent models. Webber on here constantly fills us in with knowledge, where as he doesnt have to use the models verbatim.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
They need to use that meteorology degree instead of relying on some inconsistent models. Webber on here constantly fills us in with knowledge, where as he doesnt have to use the models verbatim.
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Webber has said it and I've said it many times... models are TOOLS and nothing more. Taking their output verbatim and accepting it is never a good idea. There is great skill required in knowing each model's strengths and weaknesses and how to use it in forecasting an event. Globals are great for general 5h setup and system track but lack the skill to handle things like a warm nose, cold chasing moisture, and other tricky setups we deal with here in the south. For whatever reason it seems to me the NWS seems to ignore the RGEM and 3km NAM when those are the two best models for thermal profiles inside 48 hours... Perhaps they do use them but their forecasts often seem to be more of a blend between the GFS and Euro output which just isn't a good idea imo.

One of the best examples of that I can remember was a storm we had January one or two years ago... the globals were forecasting a quick change from rain to snow as cold HP was building in. Meanwhile the NAM came in range and showed a significant warm nose that would be a problem during the entire storm. Our local NWS offices relied heavily on the GFS/Euro ideas and busted tremendously when areas like Wake county had basically nothing due to the warm nose. Had they given the mesoscale models priority over the globals they would have had a forecast that aligned quite nicely with verification. I've seen many other examples over the years of similar types of forecasting issues like this when it comes to winter weather here in the south.
 
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