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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Rain Cold said:
There is no way there's going to be cold front snow down here.
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The problem we have east of the mountains is the energy usually either cuts north and the mountains also dry things out (NW flow) or if the precip is there the low level cold is delayed some by the mountains and by the time it gets here the precip is gone. Usually these frontal passages like this can work out well for areas west of the apps but not east of them... only way we have something of interest is if we get a low to pop to the south sort of like the CMC shows.
 
Brick.

We are not in a good pattern for winter storms right now. It was thought during the back end of the winter we'd go into one, but does this actually look like a pattern conducive for snow in the south:

1548184024795.png

Thought so. It was thought that we'd get into a pattern that is better for winter storms in January (which would have a trough in the east), but because of the MJO delay, we threw away the first half of January.
 
Snow holed again on the Euro. Let's just move on to freakin Spring. I am over this.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Brick.

We are not in a good pattern for winter storms right now. It was thought during the back end of the winter we'd go into one, but does this actually look like a pattern conducive for snow in the south:

View attachment 12604

Thought so. It was thought that we'd get into a pattern that is better for winter storms in January (which would have a trough in the east), but because of the MJO delay, we threw away the first half of January.
Click to expand...
If you tilt your head and pretend the SW is the SE, yes
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Brick.

We are not in a good pattern for winter storms right now. It was thought during the back end of the winter we'd go into one, but does this actually look like a pattern conducive for snow in the south:

View attachment 12604

Thought so. It was thought that we'd get into a pattern that is better for winter storms in January (which would have a trough in the east), but because of the MJO delay, we threw away the first half of January.
Click to expand...

There was plenty of hype about going into a good pattern for winter storms here entering this week.
 
I'm not sure how many different ways I can say "dont model chase". The atmosphere is chaotic and the model runs are all over the place in regards to a potential system.

The idea is to split the difference and notice that there's a stronger push of cold, that the models are notorious for overdoing that is sending the initial system to Cuba. I am almost positive we will see a correction North (how, far, IDK!) soon enough as we get closer.
 
Shawn said:
I'm not sure how many different ways I can say "dont model chase". The atmosphere is chaotic and the model runs are all over the place in regards to a potential system.

The idea is to split the difference and notice that there's a stronger push of cold, that the models are notorious for overdoing that is sending the initial system to Cuba. I am almost positive we will see a correction North (how, far, IDK!) soon enough as we get closer.
Click to expand...
As long as the first system actually ends up to our north to drag down more cold air and setup blocking, we will have more chances as shown on the Euro.
 
packfan98 said:
As long as the first system actually ends up to our north to drag down more cold air and setup blocking, we will have more chances as shown on the Euro.
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I'm still feeling excited for the whole period as we head into Feb. regardless of what the snow maps and storm signal is showing right now. I'd like to remind everyone that we don't need temperatures in the teens to get Winter weather, and sometimes, it really can "be too cold" to snow down here. (supressing precipitation out)

Seeing some imagery of warmer temperatures is not necassarily a bad thing. In fact, a lot of nicer Winter storms come during a temperature change.
 
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