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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

I honestly think winter forecasting in this day and age is worth very little more than a dart throw from a long way away in a variable 50 mph wind. It's a good exercise to go through, but at the end of the day, much of it is based on history, and I think it's entirely within the realm of possibility that the climate is so different now, the responses and reactions of the atmosphere are different, at least some. Probably the most accurate method is persistence forecasting. I know that's not really forecasting, but if you just go above normal temps for the winter and no blocking, you'd get really close every time.
 
Rain Cold said:
I honestly think winter forecasting in this day and age is worth very little more than a dart throw from a long way away in a variable 50 mph wind. It's a good exercise to go through, but at the end of the day, much of it is based on history, and I think it's entirely within the realm of possibility that the climate is so different now, the responses and reactions of the atmosphere are different, at least some. Probably the most accurate method is persistence forecasting. I know that's not really forecasting, but if you just go above normal temps for the winter and no blocking, you'd get really close every time.
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I mean essentially yea if you forecasted ENSO-related climate anomalies skewed heavily by AGW/interannual persistence you'd be close to the answer most times!
 
Snowgeorgia said:
I understand all of that too, and like you said I kinda just get over it, but I’ve noticed for a while it just gets worse. I’ve ignored it over and over but finally just had to State my opinion. It just irritates me to see the same people from talkweather change so much and be so rude. (Not saying names)
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I'm very pro banter and have said so, that said I haven't seen anybody be rude at all about moving posts. To be honest as well, some would have already been banned by now on TW and for good reason, so they are giving lots of leeway.
 
To tell y'all the truth, I'm pretty unexcited about that early week system. I had terms to where I can't put the groundhogzilla as my avi unless it's a total swing and a miss, but that looks like a good Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee/maybe NW Georgia thing, then no dice east. It'd unfortunately be fitting given the complaining that was going on.

Can that get worked on to where it's a solid storm for Lafayette? I feel the wambulance sirens going off, as I know it'd just be token flakes here.

And yeah. #startthethread on that fantasy land thing in the FV3. Major ice.
 
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Ok spring let’s get a move on. If these winter threats aren’t going to pan out I’d like to move on to spring so I can not waste my time on “snow storms” lol
 
January might not produce anything here after all the hype with the pattern.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That may be very true for most areas. You had something this winter so be glad for that at least. Not even a dusting here yet.
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Just think it is funny how this pattern we are in was so hyped up for winter storms, but we had the big storm in December when the pattern wasn't hyped as much.
 
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