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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

I new when Webber’s meter inched to a 3, we were toast! Mines at 1/16th, for rest of winter
 
Jon said:
I don’t think it’s the website problem itself. The FV3 counts all frozen precipitation as snow. It’s up to websites to adjust that output post-processing with an additional algorithm to realistic outcomes if they’d like. You can see on the NOAA site on the snow depth change that the fake snow is a problem with the FV3 and not TT. TT adds **includes sleet** at the top of the snowfall image to keep people in check.


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The above isn’t sctuslly true, the precipitation would not be sleet or ZR on the FV3 but actually just plain rain if you look at the 850 temps. What’s really happening here is anywhere on the model where the surface temp is 32F or below wintry precipitation is assumed to have fallen.
 
When was the last time RDU went all of January and February without a single snowflake? It's possible the only snow we have seen all winter was from the early December storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The above isn’t sctuslly true, the precipitation would not be sleet or ZR on the FV3 but actually just plain rain if you look at the 850 temps. What’s really happening here is anywhere on the model where the surface temp is 32F or below wintry precipitation is assumed to have fallen.
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I was saying what TT does to try to mitigate the issue. I saw Ryan Maues tweets about the cold bias and 2m issue on the FV3. Mostly just saying the model itself is wrong, not the algorithm on TT.


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KBHM_2019021400_eps_min_max_15-600x300.png

Works now. Thanks. EPS says no winter for you at least through the end of Fab Feb for B'ham
 
Jon said:
I was saying what TT does to try to mitigate the issue. I saw Ryan Maues tweets about the cold bias and 2m issue on the FV3. Mostly just saying the model itself is wrong, not the algorithm on TT.


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I know that lol I'm saying though that what TT does actually isn't assuming that what's on those snow maps is sleet/ZR like you mentioned earlier, it's completely different from other NWP models & an even crappier assumption!
 
Contest!

When will I85 areas get their next snow?

I’m going with January 2021. I think next year is a strong Niño and only WNC will see see snow in the Carolinas. Everyone else in the Carolinas gets shut out. Trace for Raleigh to Greensboro. We are entering a new age of suck. Embrace it
 
Webberweather53 said:
I know that lol I'm saying though that what TT does actually isn't assuming that what's on those snow maps is sleet/ZR like you mentioned earlier, it's completely different from other NWP models & an even crappier assumption!
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Oh ok. Yeah. I’m hoping we get rid of fantasy snow outputs for good eventually. I’m not sure how hard it can be, and I know snowfall algorithms have pros and cons, so it’s usually hard to pick just one and go with it. I look at several in bufkit when it’s time to forecast...wish the model sites would use a strict algorithm.


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wait til February they said

I'm so glad its half over after today :rolleyes:

Much warmer than average temperatures can be expected today as
breezy southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies allow for
efficient warming throughout the day. In fact, if the high
temperature reaches 80 degrees at DFW airport, this would tie for
the second warmest Valentine`s Day on record.
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The thing I hate most about winter is the constant cloud cover. All I ask for is to see the sun at least 3 days a week.
 
We should really just stop trying to predict Winter in Fall or at all. I don't think we know enough to do it. Maybe by the year 2,500 they will be able to somewhat accurately predict Seasons a season out. Lol
 
Robert West said:
We should really just stop trying to predict Winter in Fall or at all. I don't think we know enough to do it. Maybe by the year 2,500 they will be able to somewhat accurately predict Seasons a season out. Lol
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It's quite silly isn't it ? All of these people with all of their incredible knowledge and tools at their disposal, and for what ? If seasonal forecasts are going to be so inaccurate, what's the point ?
 
Just wait until Mahvelous March!

tenor.gif
 
Robert West said:
We should really just stop trying to predict Winter in Fall or at all. I don't think we know enough to do it. Maybe by the year 2,500 they will be able to somewhat accurately predict Seasons a season out. Lol
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I usually don’t let myself get sucked in because I’ve had good winters that were supposed to be bad and bad ones that were supposed to be good like this one. Unfortunately because 3 out 4 winters before this one were excellent I kind of forgot I lived in the south. I let the hype get to me and expected a blockbuster winter this season. If this winter continues as is it will make it 2 of the last 3 the most horrible winters I’ve experienced. If nothing else it at least taught me the reminder to not buy into the hype weather good or bad.
 
olhausen said:
I usually don’t let myself get sucked in because I’ve had good winters that were supposed to be bad and bad ones that were supposed to be good like this one. Unfortunately because 3 out 4 winters before this one were excellent I kind of forgot I lived in the south. I let the hype get to me and expected a blockbuster winter this season. If this winter continues as is it will make it 2 of the last 3 the most horrible winters I’ve experienced. If nothing else it at least taught me the reminder to not buy into the hype weather good or bad.
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The problem is you and everyone else will once again buy into the hype again next season. People have a tendency to forget.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
The problem is you and everyone else will once again buy into the hype again next season. People have a tendency to forget.
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No I won’t as I haven’t for about 5 years until this season. There’s a reason I’m usually the one telling people not to give up on winter when January is just beginning and things don’t look great. This year was a good reminder and I can assure you I won’t listen to the hype weather good or bad again. The more winters I’ve experienced here the more knowledgeable I get about my particular area as does everyone else about theirs. The only reason I bought into the hype is because of how good my winters have been since the 2014/2015 season. Everyone has multiple years where winters are better or worse and mine have been great so it was easier to buy into the great winter hype. There was also the fact that the last El Niño gave me my biggest single snow storm ever. If anything the next few winters people will most likely not buy into a good winter forecast after this disaster of a winter.
 
olhausen said:
I usually don’t let myself get sucked in because I’ve had good winters that were supposed to be bad and bad ones that were supposed to be good like this one. Unfortunately because 3 out 4 winters before this one were excellent I kind of forgot I lived in the south. I let the hype get to me and expected a blockbuster winter this season. If this winter continues as is it will make it 2 of the last 3 the most horrible winters I’ve experienced. If nothing else it at least taught me the reminder to not buy into the hype weather good or bad.
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I get better with it every year, especially being in a 5 year drought of no winter weather down here. I was over this Winter very early this year and sorta had a bad feeling early on back in January. Lots of gullible people will continue to fall for it though but I just don't know how after this fail of a Winter.
 
Robert West said:
I get better with it every year, especially being in a 5 year drought of no winter weather down here. I was over this Winter very early this year and sorta had a bad feeling early on back in January. Lots of gullible people will continue to fall for it though but I just don't know how after this fail of a Winter.
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Pretty much this

Hasnt really snowed here in 4 years why start now
 
I new when Webber’s meter inched to a 3, we were toast! Mines at 1/16th, for rest of winter
 
This winter has sucked so bad, my petunias didn’t even die completely! That’s so rare, because they are so sensitive to cold!!
 
Brent said:
Pretty much this

Hasnt really snowed here in 4 years why start now
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I would never guess your area would be without snow this long. I would imagine when you do get something it may be significant.
 
GaStorm said:
I would never guess your area would be without snow this long. I would imagine when you do get something it may be significant.
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there have been long streaks here before(the 90s especially) but this is one of the longest of course the early part of the decade was so snowy I guess its a trade off(20 inches in 09-10) and then 10-11 was also quite snowy mostly the week the Super Bowl was here(maybe a curse? lol)

the last snowy streak here was a week at the end of February/early March 2015 with about 7 inches, most coming in the last storm on March 5th with 4 inches reported, and that's the last time the airport had more than a dusting
 
Brent said:
there have been long streaks here before(the 90s especially) but this is one of the longest of course the early part of the decade was so snowy I guess its a trade off(20 inches in 09-10) and then 10-11 was also quite snowy mostly the week the Super Bowl was here(maybe a curse? lol)

the last snowy streak here was a week at the end of February/early March 2015 with about 7 inches, most coming in the last storm on March 5th with 4 inches reported, and that's the last time the airport had more than a dusting
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That's crazy. Hopefully things will shift back to at least seeing some kind of wintry weather every other year. Our pattern has been one major storm every 3 years and not much in between. Very frustrating.
 
GaStorm said:
That's crazy. Hopefully things will shift back to at least seeing some kind of wintry weather every other year. Our pattern has been one major storm every 3 years and not much in between. Very frustrating.
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yeah ts just been more annoying this winter because everyone said it was gonna be our year and we've had nothing to show for it
 
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