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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

SD said:
I'm not sure this board would make it that long. By Valentine's day the board may collapse like a black hole

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Nah by then we would have thrown some members in a black hole to save ourselves. At least there is some promising look ahead. Better than looking dead in the eyes of a torching SER.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Your statement may hold true for the upper south, but i think the areas in the DEEP south probably should start worrying around Jan 31 if there's nothing on the horizon then.
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I wouldn’t say that because In the end we have a good pattern shaping up so I would say even if you live in the “deep south” you still have a chance. And nothing is set and stone so everyone in the south has just a good of chance as each other in terms of winter weather. We all just need to remember to be patient or this winter will end up killing us.
 
Webberweather53 said:
What would the blog do if this ever happened again.

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For the first one, I'd say there would be all these posts about not getting another flake the remainder of winter, and the last 2 would be mass hysteria and pictures of flowers and snow. Of course all who would say we would have nothing all winter would quietly back into the shadows of their denying posts they probably would've made. There would be some epic meltdowns in the areas that are on the gradient edges for sure.
 
Ethan80963 said:
I wouldn’t say that because In the end we have a good pattern shaping up so I would say even if you live in the “deep south” you still have a chance. And nothing is set and stone so everyone in the south has just a good of chance as each other in terms of winter weather. We all just need to remember to be patient or this winter will end up killing us.
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I've lived in the deep south all my life except for the last year and I always consider Valentine's Day the cutoff for winter, even in a cold winter. After Feb 14, there has to be some kind of crazy fluke in order to get snow like 1993, 2009, etc. So unless something crazy happens, the deep south has 4 weeks left.
 
SD said:
I'm not sure this board would make it that long. By Valentine's day the board may collapse like a black hole

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Webberweather53 said:
If we get deep into the 3rd week of February, we haven't scored or aren't about to score, & I don't see at least a good pattern leading us thru early March, then I can understand being impatient...
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LOL 3rd week of February??? I’ve had like 4 lows below freezing since Christmas. Couple that with the blockbuster great white buffalo cold and snow almost every major Met was forecasting and there is little time left for patience. If everyone’s head doesn’t explode by the 3rd week in February then they are either hopeless snow goobers or they’re just getting their guidance from to the wrong people
 
It would be cool to get some convective snow showers to form in the foothills/mountains then sag southeastward, it happened in January 2013 not 2015, in 30 minutes I got a inch of snow and the clouds had a summertime look to it, congested cumulus and even some tiny anvils, really rare but that upper level system did cause some sbcape and when those bands hit you your temps dropped from the mid 40s to the low 30s
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I've lived in the deep south all my life except for the last year and I always consider Valentine's Day the cutoff for winter, even in a cold winter. After Feb 14, there has to be some kind of crazy fluke in order to get snow like 1993, 2009, etc. So unless something crazy happens, the deep south has 4 weeks left.
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Ok well cut what I said about the Deep South they have a slightly smaller chance but I wouldn’t say they have a 0% chance after Valentine’s Day
 
Ethan80963 said:
Ok well cut what I said about the Deep South they have a slightly smaller chance but I wouldn’t say they have a 0% chance after Valentine’s Day
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It's crazy how climo dramatically goes downhill along I-20 after Valentine's Day. First 2 weeks of Feb have had some great storms but after that it gets significantly less likely.
 
Going wayyyyy out on a limb here ... it's gonna snow ...
Relax folks ...
Hell, even going further out on that limb as I saw it off at the trunk ... it's gonna snow and stick for 3 days in Gainesville (not GA, either) ...
So, unbutton ... ;)
 
Rain Cold said:
It would be awesome to see that kind of snow around those dates in this day and age. I don't know if that would even be possible now, given where we are climate-wise.
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I don't either but last year clearly tried to make it happen, it snowed as far south as Fayetteville at the beginning of the 2nd week of April.
April 7-8 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
Rain Cold said:
It would be awesome to see that kind of snow around those dates in this day and age. I don't know if that would even be possible now, given where we are climate-wise.
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This modern, relatively unknown gem in mid Apr 1989 clearly suggests it still can. In areas w/ much worse climo than RDU a week & a half later in the spring 4-5" of snow fell in the tidewater region. Most people who don't study winter storms this closely will often underestimate the window of legitimate internal variability possible in a given climate.
April 10-11 1989 NC Snowmap.png
 
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