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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Yeah, this is starting to get frustrating and discouraging. All this talk about a great pattern setting up starting next week, but no winter storms to show for it so far on the op runs. I am not going to buy the ensembles if the ops runs don't start showing something with the next couple of days. All they have now is rain.

I swear whenever we have all this talk about a great pattern coming it rarely produces anything worthwhile, and we do better when we just get lucky with timing like the early December storm when we're coming out of a pattern of temps close to 70 just a week before. Everyone talks about it getting cold and chances for a parade of storms, and all it ever ends up being is rain.
 
We should just cancel winter. It’s over. January 15 & winter is over. ?. Should created a thread so all the negative weenies can go in there and drink their sorrows together.
 
Matthew70 said:
We should just cancel winter. It’s over. January 15 & winter is over. ?
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Not at all. Just seems whenever a great pattern is hyped up, we can't actually get much from it. Everything is 10 days or more away now, and keeps getting moved back. Guess we just have to wait until the end of the month now and February. Doesn't look like much between the 20th and the end of the month like folks thought it would be just a few days ago.
 
It’s not moving back. The cold air is on its way. For Mby here in mid south it is here this weekend. Seems everything is still on track.
 
Matthew70 said:
It’s not moving back. The cold air is on its way. For Mby here in mid south it is here this weekend. Seems everything is still on track.
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The actual storm threats are moving back. Nothing is really showing up until the end of the month now. We were looking at multiple threats the week of the 20th and now they are gone.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The actual storm threats are moving back. Nothing is really showing up until the end of the month now. We were looking at multiple threats the week of the 20th and now they are gone.
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It is an op run. It’s the GFS at that. Which really is not good past day 5. This weekend storm is just now really where I would pay attention to the ops. Look to the Euro & Ukie before the Gfs both of them. They barley beat the Gem is verification scores. Pay attention to ensembles first. Especially 5 days or more.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The actual storm threats are moving back. Nothing is really showing up until the end of the month now. We were looking at multiple threats the week of the 20th and now they are gone.
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If things change on the ensembles then you can dismiss the threats. Until then I wouldn't dismiss anything.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Rain after rain after rain 12z GFS! Jimmy just tie your failboat to the back porch, all the rain will set it asail!
Cold without snow is pointless, ooooooooooh single digits, maybe can blow some ice bubbles! Pattern coming up is loaded, with rain in between coldshots! Amazing times ahead! :(
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Did I make it in time to join the 12z dumpster party?
 
Man I’m not going to lie, I kind of like the new Brick. Life isn’t all gumdrops and rainbows. Sometimes you have to call a dumpster fire out for what it is: a dumpster fire
 
Matthew70 said:
It is an op run. It’s the GFS at that. Which really is not good past day 5. This weekend storm is just now really where I would pay attention to the ops. Look to the Euro & Ukie before the Gfs both of them. They barley beat the Gem is verification scores. Pay attention to ensembles first. Especially 5 days or more.
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But are any of the other models models showing anything inside 10 days, either?
 
Brick Tamland said:
Yeah, this is starting to get frustrating and discouraging. All this talk about a great pattern setting up starting next week, but no winter storms to show for it so far on the op runs. I am not going to buy the ensembles if the ops runs don't start showing something with the next couple of days. All they have now is rain.

I swear whenever we have all this talk about a great pattern coming it rarely produces anything worthwhile, and we do better when we just get lucky with timing like the early December storm when we're coming out of a pattern of temps close to 70 just a week before. Everyone talks about it getting cold and chances for a parade of storms, and all it ever ends up being is rain.
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Great pattens produce more times than not. The issue is these GEFS day 12+ fantasy patterns rarely verify. We are about to spend 2 weeks in MJO hell.

CD084D37-6569-4B2F-950B-4E16AFCBED20.gif
 
Kylo said:
No
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So, there we are. I really don't think getti g into these really cold patterns for an extended time gives us any better chances at winter storms. Give me 70 one week and a sharp drop in temps the next that lasts a few days and just cold enough for snow. These supposedly great patterns with an extended period of really cold air just don't seem to produce storms here for whatever reason.
 
Brick Tamland said:
So, there we are. I really don't think getti g into these really cold patterns for an extended time gives us any better chances at winter storms. Give me 70 one week and a sharp drop in temps the next that lasts a few days and just cold enough for snow. These supposedly great patterns with an extended period of really cold air just don't seem to produce storms here for whatever reason.
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You're creating a fake argument. When was the last time we were in a really great snowstorm pattern? Let's talk specifics.
 
Oh brick, I think you actually get it, but in a different way. The way most of us would word it is that our chances are better when we're going into or out of a pattern. Being in the 70s and it suddenly getting cold is the layman way of saying it. It's actually true that we rarely see snow when we're in the ice box. 1/28/14 deals are special and don't happen often (don't actually remember who got it in NC back then right off the back).

On another note, I hope the MJO is not going to just stall again, because if it does it could even be a month before we have another shot. Better take a quick two week trip.
 
Kylo said:
Great pattens produce more times than not. The issue is these GEFS day 12+ fantasy patterns rarely verify. We are about to spend 2 weeks in MJO hell.

View attachment 11218
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It’s going to be in low amplitude. Usually means less influence. Also the -AO -EPO & -NAO should hopefully override & Drive the pattern.
 
I can't handle so much negativity, I will stay on the January blog and not banter until spring. This is banter, so everyone has there on intake, but why all negative comments every damn time I come in here, it getting old very fast, maybe for once if there's any positive through the bad times than maybe things will change for the better.
 
Well it’s too bad all of our moisture will be wedged between arctic fronts but for who ever it was that won the snow machine at least you will have some snow..and you may be able to run it all day and night at some point
 
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