• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Gfs takes the orange code x west towards the keys this run
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_46.png
 
accu35 said:
Gfs takes the orange code x west towards the keys this run
Click to expand...

This is invest 99L fwiw (is there even a thread on it? and lol I'm not going to be making the thread this time).

Which, I'm not gonna look at the model right this minute but I think the area that deserves a good look at is now that isn't invested is now in the Bahamas. There's some good convection. Maybe….please let this happen, we get it to get on the move and get in the southeast and give us some widespread rain as a weak storm, but that whole area just looks messy (including Jerry), so its a mystery right now.

Edit: hmm I suppose that what the GFS is showing is indeed 99L because it'd probably happen sooner if it were any of what we see in the Carribean or the Bahamas.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This is invest 99L fwiw (is there even a thread on it? and lol I'm not going to be making the thread this time).

Which, I'm not gonna look at the model right this minute but I think the area that deserves a good look at is now that isn't invested is now in the Bahamas. There's some good convection. Maybe….please let this happen, we get it to get on the move and get in the southeast and give us some widespread rain as a weak storm, but that whole area just looks messy (including Jerry), so its a mystery right now.

Edit: hmm I suppose that what the GFS is showing is indeed 99L because it'd probably happen sooner if it were any of what we see in the Carribean or the Bahamas.
Click to expand...
I'm on vacation having a little fun, lol. If you go to the Ex-Invest 96L page, I posted of few images on there as I been following it since yesterday. Yes, we need that to push up whatever it becomes
 
SCWXGuy said:
Great pattern. No one should want a hurricane. Get out and enjoy the beautiful sunshine lower humidity and if you're concerned about periods without rain I highly recommend an irrigation system ?
Click to expand...
What a terrible post. Good luck irrigating when mandatory water rationing starts. And I bet will be complaining when food prices skyrocket.
 
SCWXGuy said:
Great pattern. No one should want a hurricane. Get out and enjoy the beautiful sunshine lower humidity and if you're concerned about periods without rain I highly recommend an irrigation system ?
Click to expand...
Its been beautiful every day for weeks now without a drop of rain for many in the southeast. Irrigation system may work for your back yard, but does not benefit everyone else. We dont want a Hurricane we just need a weak system for relief.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Meanwhile as we're going to be watching to see if Karen regenerates, the GFS shows that in a little over a week, we might have to start watching the Gulf for a homegrown...
Click to expand...
Needa watch that CAG that models have been picking up on, good example on the 18z GFS FD1F6271-3165-417D-AD74-51E52B0057B2.jpeg
 
And it ends up doing nothing looks like. Maybe it'll spin back up into the coast, but right now on the GFS its floundering in the GoM with pressure hovering around 1003mb
 
Its the idea of it being there this far out. I have to think that past truncation anyway that some of the details like the possible intensification can't be hammered out.

Same idea has been there really for a few runs now (just haven't commented as there's not much to talk about right now). The CAG could end up spawning some possible mischief in a week to a little over.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Its the idea of it being there this far out. I have to think that past truncation anyway that some of the details like the possible intensification can't be hammered out.

Same idea has been there really for a few runs now (just haven't commented as there's not much to talk about right now). The CAG could end up spawning some possible mischief in a week to a little over.
Click to expand...
Or a few days
 
Regarding even later into the future (days 12-16), the 12Z GEFS has lots of W Car. action with actual TC genesis down to 1003 or lower for ~2/3 of the members 10/8-12 with 40% of the ~21 members getting down to 999 or lower. This is the easily the strongest signal of any GEFS run so in that area for that timeframe, especially as regards 999 mb or stronger TCs.

Edit: OTOH, the 12Z EPS is not at all excited about 10/8-12 in the W Caribbean.
 
Last edited:
FWIW this is what the new farmer's almanac says
Code: 
12th-15th.
Hurricane threat for the Carolinas might make for a memorable Columbus Day. Generally fair skies elsewhere.
Granted that it also says the SE should have heavy showers this week. SMH
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top