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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower during that period. It can't get much quieter than that. During the 6-10 it shows more than what the 11-15 shows but it isn't what I would call anything close to busy looking. So, fingers are crossed that maybe October will be quiet for the first time in a good number of years. We certainly don't need another Matthew or Michael.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower during that period. It can't get much quieter than that. During the 6-10 it shows more than what the 11-15 shows but it isn't what I would call anything close to busy looking. So, fingers are crossed that maybe October will be quiet for the first time in a good number of years. We certainly don't need another Matthew or Michael.
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And the Gulf hasn’t been tapped yet.


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18z GFS looks horrible. A major into Cuba afterwards is questionable
gfs_mslpa_atl_65.png
 
I want this thing to bring the southeast a good soaking rain. Best case scenario is a weak storm that brings beneficial rains


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GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower during that period. It can't get much quieter than that. During the 6-10 it shows more than what the 11-15 shows but it isn't what I would call anything close to busy looking. So, fingers are crossed that maybe October will be quiet for the first time in a good number of years. We certainly don't need another Matthew or Michael.
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or Kate ... ;)
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower during that period. It can't get much quieter than that. During the 6-10 it shows more than what the 11-15 shows but it isn't what I would call anything close to busy looking. So, fingers are crossed that maybe October will be quiet for the first time in a good number of years. We certainly don't need another Matthew or Michael.
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See: cool down next weekend!
Euro is horrible! GFS is king!
 
Tarheel1 said:
See: cool down next weekend!
Euro is horrible! GFS is king!
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I wouldn't say the Euro lost entirely though on that. At first the cooldown outside of North Carolina was set for Friday. It ended up locking in on a day later (at least as of right now) and being CAD influenced (so west of Georgia and the Carolinas isn't going to get full relief).

Doesn't mean I'm not going to look forward to it though. I'm in the areas that will benefit and it wouldn't surprise me if 83/82 on my NWS forecast is too high from past experience. :}

To keep it on topic, the Euro has struggled with genesis this year I believe. So, who knows about this. We're just going to have to watch the CAG and possibly another African wave. Hopefully we can get a weak storm that gives us all drought relief.
 
Euro and EPS hinting at GOM trouble this weekend. That is like super best case. Something weak gets pulled up infront of the huge trough the Euro shows.
 
GFS tries to pop a system around hr 264 and is more progressive with the system at the end gets it closer to the US at a 949 mb entering the GOM going N-NNE
 
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