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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

SWVAwxfan said:
What a terrible post. Good luck irrigating when mandatory water rationing starts. And I bet will be complaining when food prices skyrocket.
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I think he lives in Charleston, like myself and weather has not been that hot or as dry as more inland. Weather has been great here compared to mid summer humidity.
 
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GaWx said:
Regarding even later into the future (days 12-16), the 12Z GEFS has lots of W Car. action with actual TC genesis down to 1003 or lower for ~2/3 of the members 10/8-12 with 40% of the ~21 members getting down to 999 or lower. This is the easily the strongest signal of any GEFS run so in that area for that timeframe, especially as regards 999 mb or stronger TCs.

Edit: OTOH, the 12Z EPS is not at all excited about 10/8-12 in the W Caribbean.
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As active was the 12Z GEFS in the extreme long range, the 18Z run was even a bit more active. I counted ~50% of the 21 members with 999 or lower SLP vs ~40% the prior run. I'd like to see the EPS give a signal for then before I put much weight on this. Sometimes, the GEFS in that area in Oct. will have run after run showing a lot of activity to only later drop it. So, it could very well be a false signal for all we know. We'll see.

Edit: From best I can tell, this activity is set off by a wave moving from just off S America at hour 204 (10/5) that subsequently moves through the LAs and then Caribbean as at least a wave and even an actual TC in 3 cases of the 21.
 
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Plus you guys got a lot of help from Dorian. The inland areas are in desperate need of rain. Shows it well on the latest drought moniter.
 
GaWx said:
As active was the 12Z GEFS in the extreme long range, the 18Z run was even a bit more active. I counted ~50% of the 21 members with 999 or lower SLP vs ~40% the prior run. I'd like to see the EPS give a signal for then before I put much weight on this. Sometimes, the GEFS in that area in Oct. will have run after run showing a lot of activity to only later drop it. So, it could very well be a false signal for all we know. We'll see.

Edit: From best I can tell, this activity is set off by a wave moving from just off S America at hour 204 (10/5) that subsequently moves through the LAs and then Caribbean as at least a wave and even an actual TC in 3 cases of the 21.
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When or if we get snow this year, are you gonna go in detailed who's gonna get screwed or not LOL? You rock man.
 
GaWx said:
As active was the 12Z GEFS in the extreme long range, the 18Z run was even a bit more active. I counted ~50% of the 21 members with 999 or lower SLP vs ~40% the prior run. I'd like to see the EPS give a signal for then before I put much weight on this. Sometimes, the GEFS in that area in Oct. will have run after run showing a lot of activity to only later drop it. So, it could very well be a false signal for all we know. We'll see.

Edit: From best I can tell, this activity is set off by a wave moving from just off S America at hour 204 (10/5) that subsequently moves through the LAs and then Caribbean as at least a wave and even an actual TC in 3 cases of the 21.
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The 12Z EPS is still another EPS that says that the last couple of days of GEFS runs are likely out to lunch with their W Caribbean TC 10/8+. It has very little activity then. This tells me that the GEFS runs could very well be tracking a phantom, something it is known for there in October.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS is still another EPS that says that the last couple of days of GEFS runs are likely out to lunch with their W Caribbean TC 10/8+. It has very little activity then. This tells me that the GEFS runs could very well be tracking a phantom, something it is known for there in October.
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So long as we can avoid a close in (Kate for example), or a homegrown, we're golden ...
 
A major cane in that area would definitely hit someone


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
It’s that time, CAG TCs and canes, models have a signal something is gonna develop from it soon
 
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