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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

GeorgiaGirl said:
I wasn't calling no development, just said after I looked at that map for a while that I no longer think the other storm is 96L.

But whichever one it is, it needs to be watched if future 97L doesn't absorb it and it stays weak enough to be a Caribbean cruiser and get to the Gulf of Mexico bath tub. If so, all bets are off.

Beware the I storm might not be real this time, but who knows about the future...
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I'm sorry, didn't mean to confuse you
 
Still looks active. Does pattern favor fish storms...

A05F4BE9-F5DE-4EFA-A551-9DFEAF408D86.png



73EF7C60-3DB5-46A5-879D-78EAF324F3F7.png
 
A wave following TD 10 that is W of the C Verdes may eventually wreak havoc in the western basin assuming the last 2 Euro ensemble runs have a clue. This is what lead to a TC located north of the Mona Passage on day 10 of the Euro, which is then in a dangerous position with the WAR/SER then rebuilding. Here is a 12Z Euro hour 312 ens map. The hurricanes (red circles) over E Maine (not visible on this map), offshore the SE US, on the GA/FL border, just NE of Cuba, and the couple over the NW Caribbean are all from this followup wave rather than from TD 10 and suggest any potential impact would likely be between 9/28 and the first few days of Oct:
70879ECE-B9B3-4220-9343-BE1CA17AA953.png
 
I like Caribbean storms they can signal pattern changes for us better I think vs any other tropical event off Africa.
 
Man the season is really getting active now and we still got October left.


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BHS1975 said:
Man the season is really getting active now and we still got October left.


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Yep and the wave east of Jerry might be one to watch, after that I bet we have to start paying close attention to genesis in and around the Caribbean and the GOM. Don't think we're out of the woods by a long shot for the season

1568810741939.png
 
Caribbean is usually just noise bias a month or too early...until the euro shows it that is. I think GFS has a known bias maybe CMC too.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and the wave east of Jerry might be one to watch, after that I bet we have to start paying close attention to genesis in and around the Caribbean and the GOM. Don't think we're out of the woods by a long shot for the season

View attachment 23682
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The 0z EPS continuing to strengthen the WAR with no weakness showing up means things will get very active soon as well.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and the wave east of Jerry might be one to watch, after that I bet we have to start paying close attention to genesis in and around the Caribbean and the GOM. Don't think we're out of the woods by a long shot for the season

View attachment 23682
Click to expand...

Speaking of the wave following Jerry: The 0Z CMC has it become a TC before crossing Hispaniola. It then weakens but later restrengthens in the FL Straits.
 
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