B
Brick Tamland
Guest
wouldn't this be something, especially if dorian ends up hitting this area
It seems once we have a legit threat in the tropics in September it just breeds more threats.
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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
- Thread starter CyclonicFury
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
It seems once we have a legit threat in the tropics in September it just breeds more threats.
Unbelievable!!!! I know it's not likely correct with the models forecasting tropical cyclone locations 14 1/2-15 days out but you never know. As if Dorian was not devastating enough the Bahama's. The 9/4 00Z GFS stalls another hurricane for about 30 hours from hour 354-378 within about a 100 mile radius of where Dorian stalled 
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Brent
Member
Unbelievable!!!! I know it's not likely correct with the models forecasting tropical cyclone locations 14 1/2-15 days out but you never know. As if Dorian was not devastating enough the Bahama's. The 9/4 00Z GFS stalls another hurricane for about 30 hours from hour 354-378 within about a 100 mile radius of where Dorian stalled
Yeah i was just gonna post that i mean thats just cruel
if you look at the initialization vs 384 on the wide shot you can hardly tell them apart
btw the Euro has nothing at all but then again this is the same Euro that had nothing from Dorian for the longest too
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BHS1975
Member
6z gfs lost it.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
EURO and CMC have a interesting storm. Better hope EURO is right with it escaping north.
The Euro isn’t OTS. In fact that is a very nasty look considering the big ridge we can’t get rid of in the long range.
The Euro isn’t OTS. In fact that is a very nasty look considering the big ridge we can’t get rid of in the long range.
I disagree. That’s OTS based on the position as well as based on the 0Z EPS, which had a good number of members with a TC near there which then all went easily OTS.
It hopefully will end up as a moot point as the 12Z Euro dropped it. Even many posters here are tired out from Dorian and have had enough. I’m exhausted. The SE has had a very rough 4 seasons in a row. Enough already. Hopefully this is the only threat this season and we can finally have some peace and quiet.
pcbjr
Member
BHS1975
Member
Looks like another long tracker on the GFS.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The 12Z GFS also has it.
Just fyi, this is 94L and we have a thread for it already
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/invest-94l.616/
Fwiw, the 12Z EPS has a fairly strong signal for what I think is the wave FOLLOWING 94L with very roughly 50% of the ~51 members having a TC genesis though most don't form til the vicinity of the Antilles or Bahamas days 11-14. Most of these then recurve between the US east coast and Bermuda. Regardless of the suggested track, this may very well eventually be an additional threat in the western basin. We'll see.
This wave is currently still over Africa and it will reach the ocean in a couple of days.
12Z EPS TC centers at hour 360:
This wave is currently still over Africa and it will reach the ocean in a couple of days.
12Z EPS TC centers at hour 360:
pcbjr
Member
Interesting, but until something forms, awfully difficult to look into the crystal ball ...
The key is that models are not crystal balls but instead are tools. Anyone who treats them as crystal balls is misusing them. But using them as the tools that they are is different. Some of these tools are better than others, too. In addition, a tool is only as good as the tool user.
Hopefully, nothing forms from this or from 94L and we have limited threats the rest of the season. The good news is that there's a decent chance that Dorian will turn out to be the worst SE threat of the season, by far, since it was a humdinger. That would be more than fine with me. Many seasons have one storm that sticks way out for the SE. Maybe that will be Dorian. Storms like Andrew, Hugo, Camille, and Betsy were by far THE storms of the season for the SE. The peak is within a few days and then it is downhill, thank goodness.
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pcbjr
Member
Wasn't suggesting otherwise, Larry, and agree 110% ...
GFS expands on what ensembles have been hinting at for several days. However this Isn’t 94L which falls apart east of the Bahamas around when this forms. Gfs forms a monster. If this were to go past 384 this would most likely be a Carolina Hit.
Note this is the 00z EPS not 12z
Note this is the 00z EPS not 12z