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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

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18z GFS.....way more to it than at 12z. Is it the beginning of a development trend, or GFS acting like GFS?!?
Has similarities to 12z CMC....

gfs_mslpa_watl_fh60-102.gif
 
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GaWx

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The 18Z Euro, which ends the run 100 miles S of C LA moving NE (at hour 90), is the strongest run of any Euro yet with 998 mb. This compares to the 1002 of the 12Z, and the 1004 of the 6Z and 0Z. Also, it has trended somewhat east of the 12Z, which was east of the 0Z. Based on this and other models, the east trend of the track as well as strengthening of the storm may not be over.
 

deltadog03

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The 18Z Euro, which ends the run 100 miles S of C LA moving NE (at hour 90), is the strongest run of any Euro yet with 998 mb. This compares to the 1002 of the 12Z, and the 1004 of the 6Z and 0Z. Also, it has trended somewhat east of the 12Z, which was east of the 0Z. Based on this and other models, the east trend of the track as well as strengthening of the storm may not be over.
I wouldn’t be surprised if someone see’s severe weather with this. Euro has some stronger 850 winds too
 

GaWx

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The 18Z EPS is consistent with the 18Z Euro operational in being much more active and further east based on the individual members as well as the mean sfc low position/precip/500 mb pattern. The majority of the 51 members (impossible to count) easily get to 1003 or stronger. The number of sub 999 is ~15 (30%), which compares to only 5 on the 12Z, 4 on the 6Z, and 3 on the 0Z.

This is by far the most active of any EPS yet. This is looking more and more like it will be a very big wx maker for much of the SE US this weekend and the largest effect from a tropical cyclone so far this season for many. Stay tuned.

Most of the members, especially the stronger ones, are ENE of the operational.
 
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deltadog03

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The 18Z EPS is consistent with the 18Z Euro operational in being much more active and further east based on the individual members as well as the mean sfc low position/precip/500 mb pattern. The majority of the 51 members (impossible to count) easily get to 1003 or stronger. The number of sub 999 is ~15 (30%), which compares to only 5 on the 12Z, 4 on the 6Z, and 3 on the 0Z.

This is by far the most active of any EPS yet. This is looking more and more like it will be a very big wx maker for much of the SE US this weekend and the largest effect from a tropical cyclone so far this season for many. Stay tuned.

Most of the members, especially the stronger ones, are ENE of the operational.
Interesting
 

deltadog03

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12z euro had some 40-50 mph 2m wind gusts (from what I could tell on freebie site) coming through AL and into GA
 

GaWx

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1. The new 0Z Euro is slightly weaker at 1000 vs the 998 of the 18Z. Also, the track of the center is even further E vs prior runs with it going from far SE LA ENE to Mobile through S-central Ga through SE SC to Wilmington, NC. 1-4" of much needed rainfall covers all around the track and also further SE.

2. 0Z UKMET: similar track/strength to its 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 22.4N 95.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2019 48 22.4N 95.8W 1005 30
1200UTC 18.10.2019 60 23.8N 93.5W 1004 26
0000UTC 19.10.2019 72 26.8N 90.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 19.10.2019 84 28.3N 89.1W 999 34
0000UTC 20.10.2019 96 30.3N 86.8W 999 30
1200UTC 20.10.2019 108 32.6N 83.3W 1003 30
0000UTC 21.10.2019 120 34.3N 79.5W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.10.2019 132 37.0N 76.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 22.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING
 

metwannabe

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1. The new 0Z Euro is slightly weaker at 1000 vs the 998 of the 18Z. Also, the track of the center is even further E vs prior runs with it going from far SE LA ENE to Mobile through S-central Ga through SE SC to Wilmington, NC. 1-4" of much needed rainfall covers all around the track and also further SE.

2. 0Z UKMET: similar track/strength to its 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 22.4N 95.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2019 48 22.4N 95.8W 1005 30
1200UTC 18.10.2019 60 23.8N 93.5W 1004 26
0000UTC 19.10.2019 72 26.8N 90.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 19.10.2019 84 28.3N 89.1W 999 34
0000UTC 20.10.2019 96 30.3N 86.8W 999 30
1200UTC 20.10.2019 108 32.6N 83.3W 1003 30
0000UTC 21.10.2019 120 34.3N 79.5W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.10.2019 132 37.0N 76.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 22.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING
Why don't you fire up a separate thread Larry.

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why am I having Michael flashbacks :p

two_atl_5d0 (1).png

A broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. Regardless of development, this system
could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
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GaWx

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18Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially S 2/3 of GA, SE corner of AL, SE half of SC, and E 1/3 of NC.

This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!
 
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12Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially S 2/3 of GA, SE corner of AL, SE half of SC, and E 1/3 of NC.

This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!
I'm hopeful.....but....we have had far too many that started out minimal and blew up along the way.
 
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12Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially S 2/3 of GA, SE corner of AL, SE half of SC, and E 1/3 of NC.

This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!
SE trend is not your friend!
 
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12Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially S 2/3 of GA, SE corner of AL, SE half of SC, and E 1/3 of NC.

This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!
I will pass on this, its deer season, the club I am on in eastern Beaufort Co is dry, very dry for the first time in like 5 seasons. There are places I can hunt that we havent been able to get into for several seasons....there are also little to no mosquitos....
 

BirdManDoomW

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Looks like the tweet was deleted I thought a plane was checking out the Texas convection that moved into the Gulf. Anyway, GFS has some development near the end of this week, but likely no threat to us. 0ADB0FB1-E7F9-48DD-AF86-8E1AC8ED9C95.jpeg
 

BirdManDoomW

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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 23 OCTOBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z OCTOBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-148

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE INVEST NEAR
24.0N 95.5W FOR 25/1730Z
 
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