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12/8/2025 Event - Repeat of Last Week?

hky1894 said:
Stronger wave on 17z hrrr vs 12z
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That may actually help the trough dig a little bit more. Something to kind of keep an eye on as we move forward. Rooting for all the NC winter weather fans
 
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Tsappfrog20 said:
Winter Weather Advisory Just Issued for the Triangle Area!!


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Here’s the wording:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations ranging from around
half inch across the Triad and Triangle regions and up to 2 inches
near the NC/VA border. In addition, lingering moisture could
result in black ice late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

* WHERE...Northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
Black ice could impact Tuesday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are expected to fall rapidly
Monday evening, reaching the mid/upper teens Tuesday morning.
 
packfan98 said:
Here’s the wording:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations ranging from around
half inch across the Triad and Triangle regions and up to 2 inches
near the NC/VA border. In addition, lingering moisture could
result in black ice late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

* WHERE...Northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
Black ice could impact Tuesday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are expected to fall rapidly
Monday evening, reaching the mid/upper teens Tuesday morning.
Click to expand...

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I have a Statistics exam at 7:30 pm on Monday that I have not started studying for... will I ever study for it? The weather is too darn interesting.

I do think the potential for black ice is concerning, given there's not much wind. Perhaps my final will get rescheduled.
 
packfan98 said:
The cold temperatures overnight is going to cause a mess for any area that gets significant precipitation, snow or not. This is definitely going to make this event a higher impact than last week for most. I’m afraid folks will be caught off guard.
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Yes, and we are in December and so sun angle won’t be a much of an issue as it is for our late season storms. I’d have to think soil temps are running pretty low, too, though I’ll need to check that.

I guess it’s time to renew my WB subscription…
 
Official forecast 1-2" now and winter storm watches just across the state line, about 50 miles away. Still leaning towards 1" or less, sitting on the southern side of the snow "footprint" more time than not disappoints.
 
NAM coming in drier for NC as well. Hope it's a hiccup and dry bias of the NAM, but hate to see this along with the HRRR coming drier too.
 
National Weather Service GSP AFD Official Guidance

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SFC HIGH
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 3,500
FEET IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 3.5 INCHES
ABOVE 3,500 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THUS, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY COUNTY AS WELL
AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FT IN YANCEY AND MITCHELL COUNTIES FROM 1
AM MONDAY TO 1 AM TUESDAY. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN MITCHELL AND
YANCEY COUNTIES COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3,500 FT IN THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO 1.5
INCHES. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS IN THE SMOKIES ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER
COULD SEE TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SO MAINLY A COLD
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY BLOW DOWN THE VALLEYS AN/OR SOME WET-BULBING MAY OCCUR EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS (MAINLY IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40) WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME BRIEF SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
RAIN AT TIMES. IT'S NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WET-BULBING
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AS
SOME OF THE CAMS AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
WITH THE COLD AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IF WET-BULBING DOES OCCUR SO OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN AN INCH). WITH CLOUD COVER
LINGERING THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY, LOWS WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO BOTH CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP, ENDING UP ~10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
 
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