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12/8/2025 Event - Repeat of Last Week?

Man I hope the GFS is right!!!
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C-Money said:
Can the amount of precip on the NAM be trusted?
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If the front is quick enough to most favorably overlap with the DPVa aloft it can happen & my hunch is it probably will keep trending this way.

The front is actually trending quicker on the NAM

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Some of that is probably due to the models initializing the snow cover that’s still on the ground over south-central VA this morning.

Even if a lot of that melts later today, we’re going to be spending energy melting that instead of warming the surface up this afternoon, which will keep surface temps down and help accelerate the Arctic front down into NC tomorrow

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Tsappfrog20 said:
Man I hope the GFS is right!!!
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Yeah, just hard to trust it with all the mets discounting it and calling it a trash model. I think all the local TV mets here just look at the Euro for their forecasts. I don't even think they trust the short range models. I think they would rather bust calling for too little snow than the other way around.
 
weather bubba said:
Chris Michaels is relatively new to the area and North Carolina as a meteorologist at WRAL so all I'll say is that he may be in for a surprise come Monday if these model trends keep swinging our way. Greg Fishel got burned when he said that Raleigh would not get an inch of snow when a system like this came our way one time. He was a man of his word and did his next broadcast standing in the fountain at WRAL.
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Chris went to NC State and attended high school in the area.
 
So what do we trust 24 hours out? The GFS and the majority of short range models showing a good 1 to 2 inches of snow for the majority of NC that gets snow, or the Euro that only has a dusting to 1 inch at most at the VA border for NC?
 
LukeBarrette said:
The inverted trough feature may drop 8+ on someone
HRDPS has it aswell
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Someone go to Boone and check it out. Models don’t normally resolve these inverted troughs well so the fact that all of them are showing it means the snowfall could be pretty damn dynamic
 
Model trends have been looking more promising this morning and early afternoon. I honestly didn't think the first event would amount to much outside of Virginia but I am cautiously optimistic that things might work more in our favor this time. We have snowpack above us, cold air coming in and a possible coastal low to work with. Let's hope the cold front speeds up and the low pressure explodes when it gets off the coast.
 
NCwx1992 said:
Am curious to see which Mets buy into the coastal enhancement potential vs not. Looks like Allan is a nay on that
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Since the GFS is the model that is bringing the coastal enhancement, Allan is being conservative probably due to the GFS forecasting track record and the fact that it is showing the most coastal enhancement. I think he is in wait and see mode as many of us are and he will adjust this map accordingly as model trends dictate. I have always liked Allan's input when it comes to weather events.
 
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