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12/8/2025 Event - Repeat of Last Week?

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A couple of the CAMS for viewing pleasure


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jackendrickwx said:
Sure there could be some issues at onset within the model of boundary layer dry air, but not literal stationary pockets of zero precip. That doesn’t make sense. I would think it should be pretty closed to fully filled in like the 3k, and would imagine it’ll correct
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i agree, this is a weird model artifact, don't sweat it
weather bubba said:
Chris Michaels is relatively new to the area and North Carolina as a meteorologist at WRAL so all I'll say is that he may be in for a surprise come Monday if these model trends keep swinging our way. Greg Fishel got burned when he said that Raleigh would not get an inch of snow when a system like this came our way one time. He was a man of his word and did his next broadcast standing in the fountain at WRAL.
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chris lived in nc, is a state grad, a smart met and is as well versed as anybody in north carolina snow culture
RBR71 said:
RGEM another @Ross special
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could be your storm, my storm, our storm, this is absolutely not baked in like the last storm was

high leverage event. a little more digging would do a lot of good. paying attention to what's going on upstream will be helpful. on the other end, the failure mode is slight ticks with less digging/more progressive storm. self obvious, since two days this wasn't a storm. but cold, dry air will be streaming in. cold air advection causes sinking. virga is still on the table
 
Ross said:
i agree, this is a weird model artifact, don't sweat it

chris lived in nc, is a state grad, a smart met and is as well versed as anybody in north carolina snow culture

could be your storm, my storm, our storm, this is absolutely not baked in like the last storm was

high leverage event. a little more digging would do a lot of good. paying attention to what's going on upstream will be helpful. on the other end, the failure mode is slight ticks with less digging/more progressive storm. self obvious, since two days this wasn't a storm. but cold, dry air will be streaming in. cold air advection causes sinking. virga is still on the table
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I think I’m most worried abt the existence of precip and marginal BL temps away from the VA border. if you do get precip to get going it still may be rate dependent for many in NC with temps 33-36 at the sfc, and hard to imagine precip will be heavy enough everywhere to verify something like what the NAM shows
 
jackendrickwx said:
I think I’m most worried abt the existence of precip and marginal BL temps away from the VA border. if you do get precip to get going it still may be rate dependent for many in NC with temps 33-36 at the sfc, and hard to imagine precip will be heavy enough everywhere to verify something like what the NAM shows
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Yep and as noted previously, flow to fast to really allow this to dig but so much, limiting those heavier rates needed. On the other hand, it wouldn't take much for it to drive those rates up some, personally I'd like to see a little taller ridge out west to help carve out the trough. I've shared some pretty maps but deep down I'm not sold on them just yet
 
Every model tonight improved for northern half of NC and Va. Let's see if tomorrow's 12z suite takes it away lol. Haven't stayed up for the euro in a long time but glad I did. ( although I'd still feel better if it was further south)

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