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12/8/2025 Event - Repeat of Last Week?

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A couple of the CAMS for viewing pleasure


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jackendrickwx said:
Sure there could be some issues at onset within the model of boundary layer dry air, but not literal stationary pockets of zero precip. That doesn’t make sense. I would think it should be pretty closed to fully filled in like the 3k, and would imagine it’ll correct
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i agree, this is a weird model artifact, don't sweat it
weather bubba said:
Chris Michaels is relatively new to the area and North Carolina as a meteorologist at WRAL so all I'll say is that he may be in for a surprise come Monday if these model trends keep swinging our way. Greg Fishel got burned when he said that Raleigh would not get an inch of snow when a system like this came our way one time. He was a man of his word and did his next broadcast standing in the fountain at WRAL.
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chris lived in nc, is a state grad, a smart met and is as well versed as anybody in north carolina snow culture
RBR71 said:
RGEM another @Ross special
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could be your storm, my storm, our storm, this is absolutely not baked in like the last storm was

high leverage event. a little more digging would do a lot of good. paying attention to what's going on upstream will be helpful. on the other end, the failure mode is slight ticks with less digging/more progressive storm. self obvious, since two days this wasn't a storm. but cold, dry air will be streaming in. cold air advection causes sinking. virga is still on the table
 
Ross said:
i agree, this is a weird model artifact, don't sweat it

chris lived in nc, is a state grad, a smart met and is as well versed as anybody in north carolina snow culture

could be your storm, my storm, our storm, this is absolutely not baked in like the last storm was

high leverage event. a little more digging would do a lot of good. paying attention to what's going on upstream will be helpful. on the other end, the failure mode is slight ticks with less digging/more progressive storm. self obvious, since two days this wasn't a storm. but cold, dry air will be streaming in. cold air advection causes sinking. virga is still on the table
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I think I’m most worried abt the existence of precip and marginal BL temps away from the VA border. if you do get precip to get going it still may be rate dependent for many in NC with temps 33-36 at the sfc, and hard to imagine precip will be heavy enough everywhere to verify something like what the NAM shows
 
jackendrickwx said:
I think I’m most worried abt the existence of precip and marginal BL temps away from the VA border. if you do get precip to get going it still may be rate dependent for many in NC with temps 33-36 at the sfc, and hard to imagine precip will be heavy enough everywhere to verify something like what the NAM shows
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Yep and as noted previously, flow to fast to really allow this to dig but so much, limiting those heavier rates needed. On the other hand, it wouldn't take much for it to drive those rates up some, personally I'd like to see a little taller ridge out west to help carve out the trough. I've shared some pretty maps but deep down I'm not sold on them just yet
 
Every model tonight improved for northern half of NC and Va. Let's see if tomorrow's 12z suite takes it away lol. Haven't stayed up for the euro in a long time but glad I did. ( although I'd still feel better if it was further south)

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jrips27 said:
Best euro run yet for many of you in NC/VA.

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Shift that north a county or 2 in NC, and give a bit more heavier axis is the high country and SW VA and I think that’s much more likely at this point. Even when things are driven by dynamic cooling, if it’s 50/50 going into the storm for this side of the apps, it’s probably a Virginia and high country storm.
 
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I know we’re more focused on the short term models, but the GFS ticked colder. Probably doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things because this can fluctuate with the amount of moisture that will be available or thrown into the system. It really depends on how much interaction (if any) we have with the coastal low.


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I was hoping the good trends from yesterday would keep trending in our favor. 6z seems to have reversed our momentum. Here’s the overnight discussion from the National Weather Service in Raleigh:

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

* Chance of precipitation areawide Mon, likely mixing with then
changing to a period of all snow before ending, especially across
the N and W.

* Precip amounts should generally be under a quarter inch liquid
equivalent, suggesting that any snow accumulation would be mostly
under an inch given the initial rain/snow mix, but stay tuned.

Forcing for ascent focused in the mid and upper levels should
continue to ramp up early Mon as the aforementioned trough
approaches, but the incoming PW values will likely be just near
normal and falling further late in the day as the mid-upper levels
start to dry out. But forecast soundings show at least a few hours
in which the column is saturated or nearly so throughout the mixed
phase region aloft down to the surface, occurring in conjunction
with peak mid level DPVA from late morning through late afternoon W
to E. The incoming Arctic front is expected to push SSE through
central NC in the afternoon, so the coldest air may be chasing the
better moisture to some degree during the morning hours,
particularly if the higher terrain manages to delay the coldest and
most dense air for a few hours. But we`re still likely to see an
atypical temp trend with surface temps falling in the afternoon, and
confidence is increasing that we`ll see at least a couple of hours
of predominant light wet snow over all but the far S and SE CWA Mon
afternoon as the low levels cool, with accumulations potentially
limited by the initial rain/snow mix, the surface temps sitting near
or slightly above freezing for much of the day, and the modest PW
values. Model agreement is good in showing a thermal pattern
supporting patchy light rain chances at onset, followed by good
chance to likely pops for a light rain/snow mix, then changing to
mostly light snow before ending in the late afternoon or very early
evening, with no reasonable chance of any icing or freezing precip.
Total accumulation should range from a trace along and N of a line
from the Triad to near Goldsboro, ranging to one half to just under
one inch near the VA border. Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid
40s early, with readings falling through the 30s in the afternoon.
Cold lows Mon night in the mid teens to low 20s will lead to minimum
wind chills in the teens in most places overnight into Tue morning.
While any lingering precip on the ground will begin to dry out
overnight, we`ll be lacking a strong wind to aid in the drying
process, and there is a good chance in a flash freeze with areas of
black ice developing, which would cause travel concerns late Mon
night into early Tue. -GIH
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
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I know we’re more focused on the short term models, but the GFS ticked colder. Probably doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things because this can fluctuate with the amount of moisture that will be available or thrown into the system. It really depends on how much interaction (if any) we have with the coastal low.


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GFS might be overdoing it with the moisture.


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packfan98 said:
Well, the Futurecast model didn’t work out so well last week. Fingers crossed it gets a win tomorrow. Regardless, there’s going to be some travel issues with black ice overnight into Tuesday morning I think.
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Yeah RAH has this:

......"Cold lows Mon night in the mid teens to low 20s will lead to minimum
wind chills in the teens in most places overnight into Tue morning.
While any lingering precip on the ground will begin to dry out
overnight, we`ll be lacking a strong wind to aid in the drying
process, and there is a good chance in a flash freeze with areas of
black ice developing, which would cause travel concerns late Mon
night into early Tue."
 
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The difference between what the GFS and Euro are showing as far as totals for tomorrow's event appears to be the coastal enhancement that the GFS shows. The Euro has none so to speak. The GFS has stuck to its guns for the last few runs while the Euro and other models other than the NAM have slightly moved towards the GFS. Soundings show a mostly snow event for the GFS while the Euro has a rain/snow transition as the event takes place. For once, GFS, please be right.screenshot-1765107958060.png
 
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packfan98 said:
6z Euro is definitely juicier. Looks almost like the same footprint as Friday’s system. I’m guessing the American models will correct a little more north to come to consensus.
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Definitely juicier but also shifted slightly north, warning shots. It did have a little coastal action though noted with slight enhanced accums near coast. Maybe this will trend better, but may only help my area out, sorry not sorry 😁. Hopefully thermals are better and that rn/sn line comes back south 🙏
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