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Pattern 12/15-19 Coastal!!!!!

It looks like major threats will be flooding rains in coastal areas and possible prolonged high wind threat, even well inland. Minor concerns around cool temperatures creating hazards, especially if power is lost. Need to keep an eye on where temps go after the storm. Quickly dropping temps below freezing at night with no power is undesirable. Severe looks to be confined to Florida, depending on how far north the surface low tracks.
 
Coastal Erosion would be very problematic. Have to see how this pup tracks. It actually moves at a snails pace starting tommorow OK/TX panhandles before finally making it to the Gulf by Saturday. Probably get some good snow off to Brett's west.
 
Shaggy said:
The consensus at this stage is impressive. Ukie, cmc are the strongest sub 975mb but even gfs and euro are down 990ish
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With a high pressure moving off the northeast coast, the pressure gradient is set up to bring some very strong on shore winds… quite possibly 60mph+. Coastal flooding is going to definitely be a concern
 
Still think GFS is to far inland. All other ops been off the coast as it comes out of GOM. GFS correcting more east each run.
Heres the 12 z Can and 12z euro

Canadian
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Euro

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Looks like maybe a classic feedback issue with GFS. we shall see.
 
If this potential cyclone ends up taking a more inland track, the severe weather potential would be through the roof given that kind of wind energy....

Irregardless, quite a potential of a major storm system... probably need to monitor for potential sting jets or gravity wave formation within the dry slot.
 
Hot off the World Famous 6z GFS: Stalls our storm, then once it starts moving a 1047 is able to supply come CAD and whala. GETS Cutoff for days

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prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png
 
12z GFS is a little to the west with this and the 12z Euro came way west. It has a 982MB low over GSO at hour 114 and it still there at 984MB 6 hours later. This gives me a little more confidence that this is going to be a major system for most of NC and SC along with parts of GA.
 
12z Euro goes from 990 around MYR to 982 in between RDU and GSO in 6 hours

Looks like a fairly mature comma head, of course we get slotted and there is no cold air anywhere in the eastern US.
 
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