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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

27.2 degrees, dewpoint has been hovering between 10 and 11 for my location, which is weird since the airport in a much more paved area reported a dew point of only 6 earlier.
 
Heres off 12z nam run. Notice the 1006 lp in east TN

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Same time stamp notice the 1008 main low in south GA/AL line. You can still see 1006low in red up in east TN this pic as well


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jimmy said:
Regarding Georgia and Alabama?
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Regarding totals, and AL + N GA. The thermals don't say there will be 0 accumulation south of the mountains on any model unless you're full in on the NAM or HRRR. Even those models say the thermals are at worst case in central AL 34 mid-event. ZR can take some snow totals down but I think the high rates may outcompete the warm nose in some cases too. If any rain happens, it won't be enough to do that except south of I-20 I'd think.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Regarding totals, and AL + N GA. The thermals don't say there will be 0 accumulation south of the mountains on any model unless you're full in on the NAM or HRRR. Even those models say the thermals are at worst case in central AL 34 mid-event. ZR can take some snow totals down but I think the high rates may outcompete the warm nose in some cases too. If any rain happens, it won't be enough to do that except south of I-20 I'd think.
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Thanks for the detailed breakdown! I see what you’re saying about the thermals and how the high rates could outcompete the warm nose in some areas. For Alabama and northern Georgia, especially south of the mountains and near I-20, I’ve been leaning toward minimal lasting accumulations due to potential rain or ZR impacts. I’m not arguing that there won’t be any accumulation, but I just don’t see it lasting very long at all. I’ll definitely take another look at the trends, especially with the NAM and HRRR showing some variance.
 
I just want to say to everyone—it’s been a wild ride! Trust me, I hope everyone gets their 6 inches of snow, but honestly, this has been one of the craziest storms I’ve ever tracked. Definitely a tough one to predict! But thats the fun with weather.
 
NCSNOW said:
There it is. Came from east TN. Riding across central NC like its gonna transfer, miller B. Glad someone else is seeing this
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I'm not sure that we would drop pressure like that in the heart of the overall cold dome but thats getting deep into meteorology at this point
 
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This is 6 hours from now… I get they aren’t crashing right now, but seems like they are suppose to
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njbarrineau said:
Can confirm the tiniest flurries IMBY in Travelers Rest ATM! They are so small but they are there! I’ve been on my back porch for the past ten minutes watching them.


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Wow thats early. Maybe its upslope enhancement, but from south wind instead of NW like they get in east TN
 
njbarrineau said:
Can confirm the tiniest flurries IMBY in Travelers Rest ATM! They are so small but they are there! I’ve been on my back porch for the past ten minutes watching them.


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Seriously? I don’t even see any clouds on satellite?
 
NCSNOW said:
Wow thats early. Maybe its upslope enhancement, but from south wind instead of NW like they get in east TN
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Very well could be, and I agree. I was walking around my yard making sure it didn’t smell like smoke or fires nearby, and there aren’t chimney’s on houses near me. I thought I was seeing things so I tried to rule out all other possibilities.


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ChattaVOL said:
This is 6 hours from now… I get they aren’t crashing right now, but seems like they are suppose to
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Got to watch precipitation. You will need heavy precip to get both enough evaporative cooling and combat the increasing LLJ. Right now this is modeled to happen, but if precip ends up lighter than modeled, we all end up in the great “we suck” pot together.
 
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