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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

DopplerWx said:
Latest Graf is locked in. This model has been seriously impressive
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Continues to show all snow up this way while the NAM is nasty ice storm then rain, 2 short range hi res models could not be more different.
 
Here's a good loop showing the variance of the HRRR over the last several model runs. Keep your hat on guys.

d9352cd7-7d43-404e-9077-dde9ef9822bf.gif
 
jackendrickwx said:
This is still absolutely a possibility! More than any of us want to admit!

I still think it’s out to lunch on never snowing for many of us
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I dont even have to look, cause ive seen it for like 5 straight runs. You have to look close. But it has a like a little meso low that pops up in east TN out of nowhere, while the main surface low is in se GA,Sw AL. I could still see it on a frame someone posted above. Thats why its so different and an ice machine for NC, while all other guidance has alot of snow, snow/sleet mix. Wrecks the thermals up above us. It then proceeds to disappear out of thin air as the main low is off SC coast. Maybe its seeing something an hybird miller b transfers. But thats the culprit.
 
I totally get the last-minute anxiety about the weather models. We’ve been burned so many times, so we’re all on edge. But we all know this is going to come down to mesoscale models and real-time observations. That’s been the case lately here. So, let’s relax, have a drink, and hope for the best. Someone on this board is definitely going to end up very happy, and some not so much.
 
FINAL CALL SNOWFALL MAP (PLEASE READ)


This is my final snowfall map for the Southeast. As shown, areas in Georgia and Alabama, particularly within the red circle, are not expected to see significant snowfall. While there may be some initial snowfall, early accumulations will likely be washed away by rain, leaving little to no lasting snow. This may upset those hoping for snow in these areas, but the storm’s main determining factor will be who can avoid rain long enough to see substantial accumulations.

Outside of the red circle, particularly in areas such as eastern Tennessee (6–8") and northern Alabama (bordering the 2–3" and 3–4" zones), the colder conditions and timing are more favorable for snow to stick and accumulate. The dividing line between rain and snow will ultimately determine how much snow each area sees.
 

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mrdaddyman said:
Rain from Charlotte to Raleigh if this verifies. Models have been showing freezing temps at 2M all the way to the coast for days.

View attachment 162087
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Here’s what I’ve noticed about the NAM over the years. It’ll spit out all different kinds of solutions leading up to an event. Sometimes, one of them ends up being pretty accurate and we all remember that solution and not the fact that it was all over the place. I’m sure someone will get screwed tomorrow and in that spot the NAM will have captured it in some run. Does that mean it does a good job?
 
jimmy said:
FINAL CALL SNOWFALL MAP (PLEASE READ)

View attachment 162089
This is my final snowfall map for the Southeast. As shown, areas in Georgia and Alabama, particularly within the red circle, are not expected to see significant snowfall. While there may be some initial snowfall, early accumulations will likely be washed away by rain, leaving little to no lasting snow. This may upset those hoping for snow in these areas, but the storm’s main determining factor will be who can avoid rain long enough to see substantial accumulations.

Outside of the red circle, particularly in areas such as eastern Tennessee (6–8") and northern Alabama (bordering the 2–3" and 3–4" zones), the colder conditions and timing are more favorable for snow to stick and accumulate. The dividing line between rain and snow will ultimately determine how much snow each area sees.
Click to expand...
I mean look...Screenshot 2025-01-09 at 9.31.09 PM.pngIts going to all get washed away
 
jimmy said:
FINAL CALL SNOWFALL MAP (PLEASE READ)

View attachment 162089
This is my final snowfall map for the Southeast. As shown, areas in Georgia and Alabama, particularly within the red circle, are not expected to see significant snowfall. While there may be some initial snowfall, early accumulations will likely be washed away by rain, leaving little to no lasting snow. This may upset those hoping for snow in these areas, but the storm’s main determining factor will be who can avoid rain long enough to see substantial accumulations.

Outside of the red circle, particularly in areas such as eastern Tennessee (6–8") and northern Alabama (bordering the 2–3" and 3–4" zones), the colder conditions and timing are more favorable for snow to stick and accumulate. The dividing line between rain and snow will ultimately determine how much snow each area sees.
Click to expand...
When I say colder and snowier, we’re really focusing on Tennessee, North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina. These areas are shaping up to see the best conditions for significant snowfall and accumulation.
 
jimmy said:
FINAL CALL SNOWFALL MAP (PLEASE READ)

View attachment 162089
This is my final snowfall map for the Southeast. As shown, areas in Georgia and Alabama, particularly within the red circle, are not expected to see significant snowfall. While there may be some initial snowfall, early accumulations will likely be washed away by rain, leaving little to no lasting snow. This may upset those hoping for snow in these areas, but the storm’s main determining factor will be who can avoid rain long enough to see substantial accumulations.

Outside of the red circle, particularly in areas such as eastern Tennessee (6–8") and northern Alabama (bordering the 2–3" and 3–4" zones), the colder conditions and timing are more favorable for snow to stick and accumulate. The dividing line between rain and snow will ultimately determine how much snow each area sees.
Click to expand...
I seriously hope you're checking soundings and trends in upper level air, because I don't see much support for that at all.
 
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