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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

ChattaVOL said:
This is 6 hours from now… I get they aren’t crashing right now, but seems like they are suppose to
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Got to watch precipitation. You will need heavy precip to get both enough evaporative cooling and combat the increasing LLJ. Right now this is modeled to happen, but if precip ends up lighter than modeled, we all end up in the great “we suck” pot together.
 
I just scanned through the mesoscale models available in TT to see how well older(18z-19z) runs verified against current radar returns. HRRR was the closest in terms of representing the expanse and intensity of precip. The NAM was off in both expanse and intensity. The squall lines and intense cells that is shows are not verifying so far. None of the models seem to accurately show precip types, at least when I compared to current mPing results. The frozen stuff is being reported further south than represented on models. This is Radar as of 9pm EST and 9pm EST forecast hour for both HRRR and NAM. Side Note, the 18z GFS(image not included) did pretty well with precip types for this this time frame but was a bit aggressive with intensity of precip. Moral of story? Don't trust what the NAM is telling you. 😝 radar.pnghrrr_ref_frzn_us_fh7_trend (1).gifnam3km_ref_frzn_us_fh8-8.gif
 
This storm has a strong chance of impacting the N GA area, particularly the Atlanta N and E suburbs in a very disruptive manner.

It's not hard to reasonably envision a worst-case scenario of A burst of heavy wet snow of 1-3 inches in the morning falling onto a near-frozen ground, followed by a short transition to sleet before changing to ZR by early afternoon and accumulating efficiently onto already snow-laden trees and secondary roads and continuing into the night.

Again, this a worst-case scenario, but I'm putting this on the table to friends and family calling me as they always do when bad weather threatens.

Check your generators peeps.
 
I'm down to 25 in Chapin with still clear skies. I hope nothing but the best for all of you tomorrow. Get some rest, tomorrow is gonna be a busy day.
 
coldspringsfarm said:
I just scanned through the mesoscale models available in TT to see how well older(18z-19z) runs verified against current radar returns. HRRR was the closest in terms of representing the expanse and intensity of precip. The NAM was off in both expanse and intensity. The squall lines and intense cells that is shows are not verifying so far. None of the models seem to accurately show precip types, at least when I compared to current mPing results. The frozen stuff is being reported further south than represented on models. This is Radar as of 9pm EST and 9pm EST forecast hour for both HRRR and NAM. Side Note, the 18z GFS(image not included) did pretty well with precip types for this this time frame but was a bit aggressive with intensity of precip. Moral of story? Don't trust what the NAM is telling you. 😝 View attachment 162110View attachment 162111View attachment 162113
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Based off of radar presentation and timing alone, 00z FV3 doesn’t look too far off. The radar might auto update after I post this tho I’m not sure.
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Normally when I've seen the NAM this far north and warm from, say, the Euro and other models that are south of it, a lot of times that I recall, the other models will just adjust to the NAM, and we're in here like, oh, the NAM did it again to us. This time, the other models aren't budging....they're staying south. It's a staredown at the ok corral
 
Storm seems to be overperforming in eastern Oklahoma.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

Moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues across much of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening. Mixed
wintry precipitation earlier across far southeast Oklahoma has
transitioned to snow and will likely remain so through the
remainder of the event.

Forecast snowfall totals have modestly increased across southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with snow amounts in the 7 to 9
inch range with locally higher totals possible in the higher terrain.
Still a fairly tight gradient is expected along/just south of the
I-44 corridor where 3 to 6 inches is expected. Updated forecast
has been sent with no other changes at this time.
 
Interesting note from the 9PM AFD FFC.

249
FXUS62 KFFC 100200
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
900 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

No major changes to the forecast at this time. Continuing to
watch 00z model runs as they come in for further updates on
freezing rain potential across the area. The greatest uncertainty
at this time looks to be wetbulb potential. Dewpoints this
afternoon outperformed expectations and may take longer to recover
than models are indicating. Will need to watch these closely over
the coming hours to hone in further on Ptype. Also, onset of E
winds will be important in determining CAD strength tomorrow.
 
griteater said:
Normally when I've seen the NAM this far north and warm from, say, the Euro and other models that are south of it, a lot of times that I recall, the other models will just adjust to the NAM, and we're in here like, oh, the NAM did it again to us. This time, the other models aren't budging....they're staying south. It's a staredown at the ok corral
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I always give plenty of respect to the NAM when it shows warming aloft. This time, it seems really out of bounds. Like, it's being offensively bad. We'll see soon enough, I guess.
 
I know it's about nowcasting time, but pretty interesting shift southeast on the 0z GFS with the surface low -- now on a TLH to Lumberton line -- a decent-sized shift this late in the ballgame.

EDIT: Last run was Dothan to Aiken S.C.

EDIT: I see 1300m thinks that's funny -- shouldn't you be cleaning up the wreckage of your hubris-laden but, as it turned out, complete trainwreck of a forecast?
 
Rain Cold said:
I always give plenty of respect to the NAM when it shows warming aloft. This time, it seems really out of bounds. Like, it's being offensively bad. We'll see soon enough, I guess.
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I remember the NAM being too amplified with the late Feb 2015 storm…and it corrected south. But in the end, that storm gave a lot of us trouble because it climbed north late. It’s like the old saying, “there’s a little bit of truth in a lie”. The NAM may be too far north, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see the globals edge north over the next 18 hours
 
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