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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

albertwilsonjr said:
Chris Justus just came on air and said the models are not realizing the cold weather in place

He showed live radar and snow line is way further south

Get ready for overperformance


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I’ve seen Chris bust before but it’s been about 8 years ago and to his defense he busted south of 85 during a marginal event when every model was pointing towards 6+. We got a backend dusting. The guy is good though and he knows the area. He is biased towards the weenie side but I like that. He is -------------’s kryptonite
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’ve seen Chris bust before but it’s been about 8 years ago and to his defense he busted south of 85 during a marginal event when every model was pointing towards 6+. We got a backend dusting. The guy is good though and he knows the area. He is biased towards the weenie side but I like that. He is -------------’s kryptonite
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I remember him posting a FB Video prior to Feb 14…. I still watched even though he’s outta my area, dude was like a child, giddy. It was cool actually


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Final call. Snow map includes IP. Went conservative but imo anywhere along the I-40 corridor could see a surprise 4”+ here or there, especially between hickory-gso. 1-3” for RDU/CLT/GSP with sleet mixing in. For CAIE, could be some front end snow, but mostly should be sleet>ZR> ending as RN. Midlands imo have the highest chance of more significant icing and near ATL IMG_3631.pngIMG_3632.png
 
RoddyPiper said:
Stop trolling. Add something of substance or 🤫
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I’ve added substance. I told everyone to not discount the NAM when it started its march North last night. You’re the one making baseless calls about the 850’s crashing when there isn’t any data to support that. Stop give people false hope
 
Shadypines33 said:
Well, they're tiny and they're sparse, but I'm seeing some flakes falling here in Madison, AL I'm just happy to see something making it to the ground, because it's so dry.
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That's encouraging. Your area hasn't been under returns for very long, and things should be picking up shortly.
 
Benholio said:
What does this mean? From FFC’s resent discussion:

“The greatest uncertainty
at this time looks to be wetbulb potential. Dewpoints this afternoon outperformed expectations and may take longer to recover
than models are indicating.”

Outperformed?
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DP's were lower than projections today.
 
Surface temps starting to rise in Walker County. From 34 to 36 over the last HR. WAA is winning out
 
Benholio said:
What does this mean? From FFC’s resent discussion:

“The greatest uncertainty at this time looks to be wetbulb potential. Dewpoints this afternoon outperformed expectations and may take longer to recover than models are indicating.”

Outperformed?
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I could see them meaning either it’s gonna enhance ice or eat up QPF
 
I
Benholio said:
What does this mean? From FFC’s resent discussion:

“The greatest uncertainty at this time looks to be wetbulb potential. Dewpoints this afternoon outperformed expectations and may take longer to recover than models are indicating.”

Outperformed?
Click to expand...
I presume dewpoints were lower today than most modeling. Lower teens were common across the area when that was written. Shave a degree or two off temps from earlier thinking.
 
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