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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Illustrative of how deeply this cold air is entrenched just hours ahead of the storm, surface temps are sub-freezing or close to freezing along all of the SE coasts from the Florida panhandle to the Carolinas. Dew points in the teens and twenties extend to the coast too.
 
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Temperature went up from a couple hrs ago to 32 here in NW Atlanta. DP is up to 13 and my Wetbulb temperature is 26.

Edit: forgot to mention some clouds have started to stream in from the west.

Edit #2: I used this wetbulb temperature calculator
 
jimmy said:
FINAL CALL SNOWFALL MAP (PLEASE READ)

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This is my final snowfall map for the Southeast. As shown, areas in Georgia and Alabama, particularly within the red circle, are not expected to see significant snowfall. While there may be some initial snowfall, early accumulations will likely be washed away by rain, leaving little to no lasting snow. This may upset those hoping for snow in these areas, but the storm’s main determining factor will be who can avoid rain long enough to see substantial accumulations.

Outside of the red circle, particularly in areas such as eastern Tennessee (6–8") and northern Alabama (bordering the 2–3" and 3–4" zones), the colder conditions and timing are more favorable for snow to stick and accumulate. The dividing line between rain and snow will ultimately determine how much snow each area sees.
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Lots of people were against my snowfall map, but the pattern has changed significantly. Snowfall totals are now looking to be half of what even the bullish short-range models were showing (what was modeled as 10:1 ratios should be closer to 6:10). Combined with mixing and above-freezing temperatures in areas where CAD isn’t well established, it’s clear this storm is playing out much differently than expected. However, the setup looks stronger for Tennessee, parts of North Carolina, and Virginia, where colder air will support more significant accumulations. As with any storm, there are always winners and losers, and now it’s becoming more clear who will fall into each category.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Temperature went up from a couple hrs ago to 32 here in NW Atlanta. DP is up to 13 and my Wetbulb temperature is 26.

Edit: forgot to mention some clouds have started to stream in from the west.
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The cloud deck is thickening quickly. It looks like we'll have some virga overhead in Ga in a couple of hours.
 
jimmy said:
Lots of people were against my snowfall map, but the pattern has changed significantly. Snowfall totals are now looking to be half of what even the bullish short-range models were showing (what was modeled as 10:1 ratios should be closer to 6:10). Combined with mixing and above-freezing temperatures in areas where CAD isn’t well established, it’s clear this storm is playing out much differently than expected. However, the setup looks stronger for Tennessee, parts of North Carolina, and Virginia, where colder air will support more significant accumulations. As with any storm, there are always winners and losers, and now it’s becoming more clear who will fall into each category.
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You have flip flopped with the models the last 3 days…don’t pat yourself on the back too hard 🤣
 
Where mby sits, we have been on the snow side this entire ride leading up to the event, minus gfs and nam. But its been by skin of our teeth, 25 miles max. Latest 0z guidance has had just enough ticks, unnoticeable to many probably, to say we no doubt sleet here some tommorow. Had those ticks smothed out the other way 25 miles, we might could have pulled off a 90% to 10% snow verse sleet scenerio. Id say we looking at a 60/40 right now, unless a wiggle pops up at 6z. This doesnt account any american physics model guidance, just watching foreign, minus the euro an ukmet.

Edit, actually verbatim, Can op,rdps and icon, say we stay all snow still, by about 10 miles.
 
RoddyPiper said:
You have flip flopped with the models the last 3 days…don’t pat yourself on the back too hard 🤣
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RoddyPiper said:
You have flip flopped with the models the last 3 days…don’t pat yourself on the back too hard 🤣
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I understand where you’re coming from, but I’d like to clarify. From the start, I predicted that the models weren’t fully grasping the extent of the cold air, and I said there would be snow further south—when most models like the Euro and GFS were still leaning toward a mostly rain event. I also mentioned that models would trend closer to the Euro AI, which they eventually did. The only thing I’ve really adjusted is the snowfall accumulations for Georgia and Alabama. I still think they’ll see heavy bands of snow, but I’ve scaled back totals slightly. It’s been a tricky storm, but I feel confident in how things are shaping up!
 
beanskip said:
I know it's about nowcasting time, but pretty interesting shift southeast on the 0z GFS with the surface low -- now on a TLH to Lumberton line -- a decent-sized shift this late in the ballgame.

EDIT: Last run was Dothan to Aiken S.C.

EDIT: I see 1300m thinks that's funny -- shouldn't you be cleaning up the wreckage of your hubris-laden but, as it turned out, complete trainwreck of a forecast?
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You wanted to laugh earlier about me posting GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings but then turn around and post about the GFS surface low position 24 hours out before a storm. It's unfortunate that some of the lower IQ, actually it's probably just you, don't understand the difference between discussing very real potential and making a forecast. But such is the way when you're dealing with the lay person. Anything that can be interpreted as non-weenie, anti-greatest storm of all-time material you take personal don't you? In the words of @Kylo pound sand tool bag.

P.S. Here's my forecast, where's yours Mr. Bigshot?

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1300m said:
You wanted to laugh earlier about me posting GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings but then turn around and post about the GFS surface low position 24 hours out before a storm. It's unfortunate that some of the lower IQ, actually it's probably just you, don't understand the difference between discussing very real potential and making a forecast. But such is the way when you're dealing with the lay person. Anything that has any non-weenie anti greatest storm of all-time post you take personal don't you? In the words of @Kylo pound sand tool bag.

P.S. Here's my forecast, where's yours Mr. Bigshot?

View attachment 162161
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Looks good.
 
albertwilsonjr said:
Chris Justus just came on air and said the models are not realizing the cold weather in place

He showed live radar and snow line is way further south

Get ready for overperformance


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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That is good and hopeful, but also take it with a grain of salt because some of the stuff on the radar wasn’t verifying on the ground as snow. It was sleet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Natedogg25 said:
Hamilton, AL now reporting sleet per WBRC Birmingham.
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I’m in east central AL on the GA line. Hoping to see some snowflakes soon! I’ve been in here reading for over a week but this is the first comment I’ve made here in years! lol Hoping everyone gets to see some snow 🫶
 

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