Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[NorthGaWinter4]

about time to get a little bit more from the nam

 

[KyloG]

It is nice to see GSO still improving on the EPS snow mean...several runs in a row ticking higher.

 

[CaryWx]

It is nice to see GSO still improving on the EPS snow mean...several runs in a row ticking higher.

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Wish that would be RDU

 

[albertwilsonjr]

It is nice to see GSO still improving on the EPS snow mean...several runs in a row ticking higher.

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Can you do Laurens sc


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[rburrel2]

the latest Hrrr looks nothing like any of the other models at 48hrs... northern vort is way out in front of the cut off out west and missing it. Believable?

 

[tractor girl]

Can you do Laurens sc


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There's a separate thread for this now https://southernwx.com/community/threads/1-9-12-imby-requests-comments.1361/

 

[albertwilsonjr]

There's a separate thread for this now https://southernwx.com/community/threads/1-9-12-imby-requests-comments.1361/

My apologies thank you


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[rburrel2]

Yall that Hrrr run has me spooked. Someone talk me off the ledge. At least it's going to be cold I guess with that strong northern trough dropping in.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Yall that Hrrr run has me spooked. Someone talk me off the ledge. At least it's going to be cold I guess with that strong northern trough dropping in.

It’s the 48 hours HRRR, the hrrrr isn’t even accurate at 4 hours

 

[Mahomeless]

Yall that Hrrr run has me spooked. Someone talk me off the ledge. At least it's going to be cold I guess with that strong northern trough dropping in.

Its like looking at the GFS 384h.....not its wheelhouse

 

[rburrel2]

Here is the euro for comparison to the 18z hrrr.

 

[Makeitsnow]

I'm baffled why surface temps aren't being modeled colder for this storm. yesterday globals were showing anywhere from 27 to 33 during the height of the storm for me... They've actually warmed a bit today and the range is 29-32.. if you take out the cmc they are all showing 31-32.

I just find that hard to buy when looking at the temps as the fronto band arrives... I feel like we should be dropping to 27-28 at least. Curious to see if the NAM does that this afternoon since it'll finally be in range.

Totally agree. It would be one thing if the cold llv airmass was very shallow and marginal but it's not. In fact it's quite deep and cold. For example, gfs has 950mb temps cooling to -3c by 18z friday over north ga and sc.....with the canadian as low as -4c. So im certain the models are wrong showing so little cooling. More than likely temps should settle to between 26 to 29..which would mean areas north of i 20 should stay subfreezing through the storm. Any depiction showing plain rain by the end over northern ga/sc is wrong imho

 

[jimmy]

All eyes on the nam here

 

[rburrel2]

Its like looking at the GFS 384h.....not its wheelhouse

Maybe so, or maybe some new data was ingested for the 18z runs.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Yall that Hrrr run has me spooked. Someone talk me off the ledge. At least it's going to be cold I guess with that strong northern trough dropping in.

the Northern being faster is better, i thought. We want it faster to merge further East. The big totals out west were with it merging further west and being slower....again im prolly off on that

 

[jackendrickwx]

Maybe so, or maybe some new data was ingested for the 18z runs.

If the NAM and GFS do it too, maybe start to worry. But as it stands there’s more well-founded concerns

 

[rburrel2]

the Northern being faster is better, i thought. We want it faster to merge further East. The big totals out west were with it merging further west and being slower....again im prolly off on that

It may have been a great run for Eastern NC... but might be too much of a good thing... There may be no storm at all with that hrrr look if it kept going out.

 

[JLL1973]

Winter storm watch just issued for my area

 

[iGRXY]

N/S is further south and stronger at 30 on the NAM

 

[thanksgivingbrown]

NWS Memphis issues winter storm watches for north Mississippi and west Tennessee

 

[iGRXY]

Couple of notes on the NAM thru 36:
The confluence is stronger and keeps inching further west. The N/S energy is stronger and further south

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

the latest Hrrr looks nothing like any of the other models at 48hrs... northern vort is way out in front of the cut off out west and missing it. Believable?

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Not likely ... it would be extremely impressive if it was right.

 

[rburrel2]

Alright, NAM is nothing like that weird Hrrr map. Crisis averted. Carry on. lol

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Great video from Allan Huffman if y’all are interested.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/119516438?utm_campaign=postshare_fan

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[packfan98]

Looks like the real EURO is rain until you get into central VA

This is a trolling post and obviously not true. More like this will get you banned from posting.

 

[Oconeexman]

Were gonna see some different solutions for sure with new data and sampling. Hopefully better agreement by this time tomorrow and a better solution for all

 

[jrips27]

Judging where we’re at at 48- my hunch is the NAM is gonna be slightly more amped. Northern stream seems slower/weaker so there’s higher heights across the mid-south/Ohio valley

 

[Oconeexman]

That HP is a touch stronger and a little further west this run of the Nam. Not sure the implications if any that will have on the 850's

 

[iGRXY]

NAM is colder so far at 850

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[TheBatman]

Guys let’s stay on topic here. It is ridiculous the amount of post that has been deleted.

 

[iGRXY]

NAM will be more amped with the N/S phasing further west.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[jackendrickwx]

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Looking pretty 12z gfs-y there

 

[ForsythSnow]

NAM is making 12Z look like a blip so far. Seems colder than 6Z and better overall.

 

[1300m]

Few on here want to see this trend continue.

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[Mitch West]

View attachment 160933
Few on here want to see this trend continue.

Only way anyone would want that trend to continue is if we fix our cold air source in the Atlantic. The more amped this is in Texas, the worse it is for us. That's why no one should be worrying about moisture issues in my opinion.

 

[SnowNiner]

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Looks like there's nothing there. Does it miss the phase?

 

[Ross]

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Few on here want to see this trend continue.

whew this could be a nuke