Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Just got this text message. Something is cooking

 

[Jessy89]

Gfs is the fastest with the start of the precip to. Of all the models.


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[tractor girl]

 

[jackendrickwx]

No way around this with these more neutral/neg tilt solutions

 

[tractor girl]

 

[tractor girl]

 

[Makeitsnow]

The UKMET is a good all around model. Like all the others, sometimes it wins and loses, but overall we prefer it to be in our camp versus many others, IE. Canadian.

It used to be, the UKMET would be a precursor to the ECMWF run since they both come from across the pond with similar data assimilation.

One thing to note is like the euro it has a warm bias at the surface on evaporational cooling situations. It also breaks down cad too fast.

 

[iGRXY]

N/S really diving out ahead

 

[jackendrickwx]

So we need it to go toward neutral ish tilt enough to actually get decent QPF and track the low further south/offshore to try and fight back on the WAA.

 

[ChattaVOL]

View attachment 160349

Do we really think it gets warm enough for the back side to be rain in the Tennessee valley?

 

[Mitch West]

So we need it to go toward neutral ish tilt enough to actually get decent QPF and track the low further south/offshore to try and fight back on the WAA.

Sounds very easy. We got this.

 

[iGRXY]

These changes at day 3 lololol

 

[John1122]

Do we really think it gets warm enough for the back side to be rain in the Tennessee valley?

I believe that's basically drizzle due to a lack of moisture in the DGZ.

 

[albertwilsonjr]

View attachment 160353These changes at day 3 lololol

Can you interpret if this is good or bad for snow in sc


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[NWMSGuy]

Anyone know what this winter system will be named?

 

[Jessy89]

Can you interpret if this is good or bad for snow in sc


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I’d still be weary south of 85. But the trend for at least front end snow good N of 85.


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 160353These changes at day 3 lololol

N/S ahead of S/S…


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[weather bubba]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro agrees with the UKMET during its next run coming up shortly if I am not mistaken. The GFS and it's strung out mess of a system tracking through South Carolina would make the snow lovers in the Deep South happy and snow lovers along the Atlantic in the Southeast miserable. We'll see if the Euro aligns with the UKMET presenting two different trains of thought about this weekends winter potential.

 

[iGRXY]

Euro is going to be flat and hold true

 

[ChattaVOL]

Well it’s snowing in Chattanooga right now.. it’s a miracle that could bode well for this storm.


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[ColdCoreLow]

Anyone know what this winter system will be named?

Superstorm Yorkie

 

[NBAcentel]

Euro looks better for areas west, but areas east still lacks QPF, but better than the last 2 runs for sure. Sfc temps are colder this run

 

[EasternNC]

Busy at work. How are things looking for eastern NC ?

 

[NBAcentel]

The more juiced up 12z run

 

[FallsLake]

Euro looks better for areas west, but areas east still lacks QPF, but better than the last 2 runs for sure. Sfc temps are colder this run

How about the track. Miller A or B?

Edit: Miller A

 

[jrips27]

Anyone know what this winter system will be named?

Yorkie but I hear dachshund is also in the running

 

[jackendrickwx]

The more juiced up 12z run View attachment 160356

idk about y'all but for central nc i take this 8 days of the week over the gfs. i assume it tilted just a bit more neutrally?

 

[J.C.]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

How about the track. Miller A or B?

Edit: Miller A

By the looks of what Fro just posted I guess you could call it a hybrid? The way I look at it it’s close to a Miller A track with a B style transfer

 

[NCSNOW]

The UKMet does what you want to see in order to get more snow south. It sends the base of the northern stream wave into Oklahoma and flattens the eastern ridging over time, and it sends the remnants of the baja wave to the Tacoria bar in Acapulco. It's the antithesis of the GFS

Youve been telling us for days what we needed to maximize opportunity/ base of the ns into Okie etc. Love to see this ukie run verify. Im busy at work an cant keep up today. But that track the GFS12z has is awful coming up through GA and SC coastal plain. Hoping the 12z Euro op track I just saw, preferably the 12z Ukie is where we head and end up.

 

[Mitch West]

Euro was more juiced and colder.

All model guidance went colder and the Euro has trended towards more moisture.

 

[weather bubba]

This ECMF run looks like mostly winter precipitation for folks in the northern half of North Carolina. It is not as gloomy as the GFS model showed but we still need colder air during this storm for the southern and eastern sections to get in on the action.

 

[ITUSETOSNOW]

Anyone know what this winter system will be named?

D i c k.

 

[Stormlover]

 

[NCSNOW]

idk about y'all but for central nc i take this 8 days of the week over the gfs. i assume it tilted just a bit more neutrally?

The last thing we want is the track the 12z GFS op took. Angle an all from south GA into an through SC.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Anyone have the snow map for the 12z Euro?


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[Avalanche]

D i c k.

take this down before Psalms sees it

 

[crecre9]

Euro was more juiced and colder.

All model guidance went colder and the Euro has trended towards more moisture.
View attachment 160358View attachment 160359View attachment 160360

All of that guidance is warmer for N AL.

 

[CaryWx]

Anyone know what this winter system will be named?

We're about to name the third one below--Cora or maybe "Crapora"

• Anya.
• Blair.
• Cora.
• Demi.
• Enzo.
• Freya.
• Garnett.
• Harlow.

 

[NCSNOW]

Anyone have the snow map for the 12z Euro?


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Same footprint as EPS this morning


Heres Candian an GFS and ukie ops at 12z ;




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