Yup kinda what I am thinking. Hwy 278 and north storm.
Really gets kicking north of the Tennessee river.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Really gets kicking north of the Tennessee river.
iGRXY
Member
GFS went full miller B lol
So this is the option that the north Georgia / upstate SC folks want. That low running up through central SC kill folks there up into central / east NC.
jaymackd3
Member
Wow WWA for us
Twister
Member
This will likely be a Miller B Storm
iGRXY
Member
I can smell an over performing FGEN front end thump from a mile away if this is the route the ends up being accurate.
Storm5
Member
Yeah that was an improvement for north alabama
1300m been all over this...this feels like a rainy special for us. I wouldn't want to be east of 85 in NC.
Looked like it transferred across SC. Small jump put I guess that would make it a B.
Much improved for north Georgia. Front end thump is alive 
3 hour precip-type
Yeah, sucks for us, but we have to acknowledge this is a possibility.
iGRXY
Member
CMC will likely be more amped as well.iGRXY
Member
YepI do think there will be a nice event for a lot of the people on here though...interior SE. So thats nice.
rburrel2
Member
CMC has the front end thump too for NGA/Upstate... let's go!
Edit: It actually has a 700-750mb warm nose and would be all sleet... still a solid hit though.
Edit: It actually has a 700-750mb warm nose and would be all sleet... still a solid hit though.
Stormlover
Member
Good gosh (not going to happen):
CMC takes down every tree and power line along I20/I85 lmao
A near perfect SLP track for Raleigh and it still can't snow. We can't even get digital snow now.
No, no, we get nearly an inch of ice with a little powder on top:A near perfect SLP track for Raleigh and it still can't snow. We can't even get digital snow now.
rburrel2
Member
Here's a 12z model summary for Clemson, SC.
| Model | Run Cycle | Total Qpf | All snow? | all frozen? | Surface temps at best point of qpf | time of best qpf | notes | Snow/sleet guess | precip start | ||||||||||||||||||
| icon | 12z jan6 | 0.19 | Maybe | yes | 30 | 1am Sat | sleet mixes in at height | 1.5 | 4pm friday | ||||||||||||||||||
| gfs | 12z jan6 | 0.7 | NO | yes | 29 | 4pm Friday | 3inchsnow, 1inch ice | 3.5 | 9am friday | ||||||||||||||||||
| CMC | 12z jan6 | 1 | NO | yes | 27 | 8pm Friday | mostly sleet, some frzrain | 2.5 | 5pm friday |
I think a storm is coming
I mean I don't think it's smart to rule out any model guidance at this range.
I'm all for living and dying on every model run - that's part of the deal in here. But we gotta keep it 
too. The overall trends with recent models runs have been flatter, not more amped - save this run of the GFS. The Euro, EPS, the AI suite, the ICON all have trended flatter overnight. The CMC run was basically the same at 500mb from its previous run. Of course this could end up way amped and west at go time, but we can't say we are seeing that in the overnight trends. Here is the trend on the last 3 runs of the Euro
too. The overall trends with recent models runs have been flatter, not more amped - save this run of the GFS. The Euro, EPS, the AI suite, the ICON all have trended flatter overnight. The CMC run was basically the same at 500mb from its previous run. Of course this could end up way amped and west at go time, but we can't say we are seeing that in the overnight trends. Here is the trend on the last 3 runs of the Eurorburrel2
Member
just my guess off the crummy maps... but 12z ukmet has a strong northern trough dropping down, but it keeps it positive tilted... probably a great run for upstate and also Eastern sections of NC.... stronger front end, but no amplication on the backend should keep the warm nose at bay I think. Hopefully it is generous with precip.
Canadian model only running 10-15 degrees colder out in front of this system. Yeah, sure thing...
we still have some washed out system movements too so a wind-up is not guaranteed either, let alone overall track
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Nope.... never seen freezing rain in all those areas at the same time.... Impossible. Not gonna happen. There will be transition zones. The wedge will not extend that far south without there being some very cold temps aloft and at the surface in NC. If there is freezing rain in Wilmington and Myrtle Beech, then Charlotte will get frozen. Gfs is smoking crack...
SimeonNC
Member
I feel like the 2m temp profiles on the CMC will probably come closest to verifying, the AIFS and Euro have been trending colder and colder.
@Myfrotho704_ this is looking like a classic SE CAD storm for us and other W. Piedmont folk
@Myfrotho704_ this is looking like a classic SE CAD storm for us and other W. Piedmont folk
SimeonNC
Member
That was the CMC, GFS had rain for those far eastern areas
CMC is likely to cold with the fringe CAD areas esp. but GSP/CLT and NE GA does have agreement on dropping in the upper 20s during the event on other modeling. It’s not the “warmest” setup like I been seeing. Maybe at 850mb
SnowwxAtl
Member
I agree and I think the CAD is going to get colder each model run. And the low will be push further southwest.
I think we are getting the idea, finally. Precipitation types and lines will still be a nightmare to figure out, but we are going to end up with a mess, and a couple +SN surprises in locations just far away from the WAA.
When these systems get going, someone always scores where the 0 to 0.5 850mb temps are right on their doorstep.
Ron Burgundy
Member
FFC has me at a low of 25 Thurs night so 37 seems a tad…offf