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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Snowflowxxl said:
The LR NAM is over hated at this point. It’s not that bad and I’ve seen it sniff things out many times over the last decade.
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i agree with this take and do think it can be a precursor to trends that the globals shows later. not always, but i keep it in the back of my mind
 
WNC_Fort said:
I hear you. It's better in the mountains/foothills for sure but until earlier this week, my last snow was March of 2022.
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We get shafted due to Lee's side effects. While those north and east of us get snow because it has a chance to redevelop. Yesterday is a prime example. It's tough living in the lee. Everyone thinks that we always get snow and we don't we get shafted more times than not. And for those of you who say oh you can just drive right up the road and see snow. Drive up 181 it's the steepest curviest stretch of roads you'll ever drive.
 
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CltNative90 said:
I'll be spending the second half of the week and weekend at about 3,500 feet in Little Switzerland (plans arranged long before this storm was on the radar). I've been pulling for the mountains/ foothills with this event, as well as back home to break the streak. Unfortunately, as is almost always the case, when the mountains score there will be at the very least mixing issues in the southern and eastern areas. I think the best scenario to get everyone involved is the weaker flatter solution. It may mean sacrificing a big time snowstorm where I'm going to be, but I feel somewhat confident the precip shield will expand further north and west than modeled as is typically the case.
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You're sitting pretty I promise! You won't have to worry about mixing issues if the track is just off the coast.
 
Model summary for the northern Upstate:

00z and 06z GEFS snow mean looks the exact same for the upstate. 2 inch mean for Oconee/Pickens/northern Greenville counties.

00z CMCE snow mean is 2 inches for those same area's

06z EPS mean is 1-1.2 inch, which was a slight uptick from 00z.

06z EPS also ticked colder at 850mb Friday afternoon.

The operationals aren't showing quite as much, mainly b/c of lack of significant precip on Friday.

The Euro AI and GFS graphcast are showing 2-4 inches. and both ticked colder at 850mb with their last runs.
 
rburrel2 said:
GFS and regular Euro keep the upstate all snow on Friday too... the issues here is how much qpf actually falls. GFS and Euro say 1 maybe 2/10th's if we're lucky. (Euro verbatim says surface is 34 friday afternoon b/c we don't get heavy enough precip to wetbulb), Euro AI says more like 4/10ths. The precip just hits a wall and dies on the GFS/Euro, awful.

That's something that can trend the other way quick though...
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Yeah it is tough to get good accumulation during the day time, especially with light returns. A night event would be much better for our area.
 
ILMRoss said:
i agree with this take and do think it can be a precursor to trends that the globals shows later. not always, but i keep it in the back of my mind
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Agree fully. While I never put stock in the long range NAM, I never ever discount it. February 2015 burned me bad enough I won’t ever forget it.
 
rburrel2 said:
Model summary for the northern Upstate:

00z and 06z GEFS snow mean looks the exact same for the upstate. 2 inch mean for Oconee/Pickens/northern Greenville counties.

00z CMCE snow mean is 2 inches for those same area's

06z EPS mean is 1-1.2 inch, which was a slight uptick from 00z.

06z EPS also ticked colder at 850mb Friday afternoon.

The operationals aren't showing quite as much, mainly b/c of lack of significant precip on Friday.

The Euro AI and GFS graphcast are showing 2-4 inches. and both ticked colder at 850mb with their last runs.
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What are the odds the precipitation on the Lee side increases? What needs to happen in order for that to happen


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No real cold air feed today either, but I'm still here with 32 degrees, a heavy dusting of snow, a nice crust on top, and none of this was forecast. Instead of all rain, we've been all frozen/freezing so far here in Colfax. I'd definitely like to have a cold parent high over the great lakes, but it isn't necessarily a requirement. TW
 
rburrel2 said:
Model summary for the northern Upstate:

00z and 06z GEFS snow mean looks the exact same for the upstate. 2 inch mean for Oconee/Pickens/northern Greenville counties.

00z CMCE snow mean is 2 inches for those same area's

06z EPS mean is 1-1.2 inch, which was a slight uptick from 00z.

06z EPS also ticked colder at 850mb Friday afternoon.

The operationals aren't showing quite as much, mainly b/c of lack of significant precip on Friday.

The Euro AI and GFS graphcast are showing 2-4 inches. and both ticked colder at 850mb with their last runs.
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I could very well see this being a front 1-2" snow Switching to Sleet/ZR with .20" of ice. That's will probably about sum up what the upstate is looking at. Just don't see this being an all snow Event
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Yeah it is tough to get good accumulation during the day time, especially with light returns. A night event would be much better for our area.
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yea, we'll see. On the positive side of things... the sun angle is pretty low and the cloud deck should be really thick on Friday. Also if we get enough precip for accumulating snow it should drop the surface temps in to the upper 20's.

Another factor is it looks like we could be in some solid snow as early as 5-6am Friday morning if it doesn't fall apart. That's what the Euro AI shows anyways.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Yeah it is tough to get good accumulation during the day time, especially with light returns. A night event would be much better for our area.
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I honestly wouldn’t be too worried about snow being able to accumulate during the day with this potential, even if it’s light. Lows will be well down into the 20s every night this week and only in the 40-45 degree range during the day so the ground is plenty cold enough. Also we still have fairly low sun angles.
 
rburrel2 said:
Model summary for the northern Upstate:

00z and 06z GEFS snow mean looks the exact same for the upstate. 2 inch mean for Oconee/Pickens/northern Greenville counties.

00z CMCE snow mean is 2 inches for those same area's

06z EPS mean is 1-1.2 inch, which was a slight uptick from 00z.

06z EPS also ticked colder at 850mb Friday afternoon.

The operationals aren't showing quite as much, mainly b/c of lack of significant precip on Friday.

The Euro AI and GFS graphcast are showing 2-4 inches. and both ticked colder at 850mb with their last runs.
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Thanks! Surprised there’s no really amped runs that I can see. From the discussion yesterday it seemed like it’s inevitable. Still certainly can and I hope it amps up a bit more. Storm right now looks like weak sauce.
 
Tarheelwx said:
No real cold air feed today either, but I'm still here with 32 degrees, a heavy dusting of snow, a nice crust on top, and none of this was forecast. Instead of all rain, we've been all frozen/freezing so far here in Colfax. I'd definitely like to have a cold parent high over the great lakes, but it isn't necessarily a requirement. TW
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It absolutely is a requirement when you have a gulf low pumping WAA
 
interested in if, and where, models shows this specific signature today

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this is the loaded gun "oh she's about to bomb out" look. GFS has had it, CMC had it to some extent.

basically when a jet streak rounds the base of that sharp trough, negative tilt is reached very easily and things go boom. this is why the mid atlantic got lit up for a few runs and why the storm bombs off the coast.

want a moonshot that gets more of the board involved? get this feature a little further south or a little further east. with the precarity of the 500 mb evolution, i dont think it's out of the question (but to be clear this is a "top quintile" solution and it's more likely this features favors folks like myself)
 
ITUSETOSNOW said:
January 8, 1973, ATL had the "Mother" of all ice storms.
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I was a child in Athens at the time.. our power was off for days if not a week or more. It was brutal. We weren't really allowed to play in it since there wasn't much of actual snow. My parents cooked food on a little Coleman camp stove. It was so cold!!
 
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