CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yeah we need a flatter/more suppressed solution like Webb mentioned
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
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Yeah we need a flatter/more suppressed solution like Webb mentioned
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Me too brother. But that’s normally an Eastern NC special in those set ups. Like @Rain Cold said, for whatever reason the cold is taking a 45° angle in recent Winters from West to East. This shouldn’t be this hard WHEN places like Dallas are getting crushed. I’m mainly speaking for like the upstate into the Piedmont. It’s always hard for the Midlands.
albertwilsonjr
Member
Is there still a chance the storm suppresses more to where the upstate gets snow
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My thing on that GFS run is that at the height of the storm it had 2m temps below freezing down into northern SC while the 850s were near the VA/NC border. The low was only 1007mb. That’s a heck of a warm nose for such a weak low
SnowwxAtl
Member
We have to wait and see. The models are still all over place man. But the less amp trend has started. Lets see what 12z brings...hopefully some clarity our way this thing though.
SnowwxAtl
Member
I was thinking the same thing. The snowpack up north, GFS is not good with low level cold either. Time for correction I think will start at 12z.
Downeastnc
Member
Honestly that track is fine and further south won't help....the problem is the cold air supply.
njbarrineau
Member
Yes. I see you are from Laurens. I’m originally from there and live in Greenville now. Anything is still possible at this point, and I recall numerous situations in past storms where models drop storms in this time frame and come back closer to go time.
As of recent storms, Climatology favors areas above 85 for snow storms and we have to keep that in mind for this and every snow storm. Nothing is off the table yet so just breathe lol
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SnowwxAtl
Member
Yep, which I think is being underestimated...could be and probably wrong...a colder trend could be possible if the low on GFS is correct or further south. Anyway, we should wait for the season guys to analyze the new data later this morning. Going back to sleep.
packfan98
Moderator
6z GEFS was definitely more amped. Favors less snow for the SE and more for the mid Atlantic
SnowwxAtl
Member
It seems flatter to me though.
Downeastnc
Member
The cold just isnt there on the GFS this is horrible source cold for us, above freezing all the way to NE, we need a 1025 or better high parked over NY with alot colder air than this to get a pay off down here.
Forevertothee
Member
If you had drawn that up and told me this would occur in the first week of January, I'd think Upstate SC would have a solid hit here.
Snow for TN, ice/mixed precip for NE GA, upstate SC and northern NC. Looks like this is a more suppressed run than the 00z. AIFS had a similar idea.
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albertwilsonjr
Member
Wulfer
Member
19 here Wednesday night! No, way these models have ingested the new model data snow pack to the north above Tn and Ky yet!
njbarrineau
Member
Not to mention IMBY we haven’t been reaching projected highs the past few days. Obviously a lot can change towards Friday, but it feels promising even so.
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This is from James Spann this morning. 06z GEFS looked colder then 00z. The 00z eps was definitely warmer and a tick north. We need a miracle down here but let’s see what the day holds
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
With how the system has busted here this morning, there’s nothing guaranteed 5 days out. Everything froze over here this morning.
NCSNOW
Member
Yea it wasnt a 5 mile off the mark bust. Above freez I ng has made up past house. Ice still accumulating here in GBoro. The models where off by a solid 60 miles.minimum , 24 hours out.
Sam Sparks
Member
I been following this forum for almost 20 years (talkweather days included) I'm only here for snow and hurricanes and rarely chime in. Every snow system I've followed here that I can recall, the storm completely disappears 5 days out, comes back the next day too far southeast, and then makes a last minute NW shift about a day out. I will probably be wrong this time because I'm here mentioning it, but I've not thrown the towel in yet on this storm because of this. 
If anyone is wondering why the CMC has so much more wintry precip versus all other modeling this AM, look no further than its thermals the day before the system arrives in the SE. The model is 5-10 and in some locations, 15 degrees colder across all of the SE than other modeling. The next coldest is the ICON.
I'd love to hug the CMC, but she's just a tease.
I'd love to hug the CMC, but she's just a tease.
06z EPS run this morning is colder and flatter
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
iGRXY
Member
So we went from amped and a miller B 2 days ago, to a sheared and flatter wave not even 12 hours later, then back to an over amped mess, and back to the flatter look. If you guys haven’t figured out these models don’t have a clue even just 4 days out idk what to tell you at this point
Seems like we are dropping energy behind the Baja low now, which instead causes the main low to eject and sort of shear out against the shortwave ridge, now the main hope is the northern peice picks that sheared mess back up and gives another reprieve at H5 for forcing further east. AIFS does it, EPS looks fine
Oconeexman
Member
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Gotta hope the globals are struggling with strength and depth of Cad. This look on the EPS (0Z) just screams winter storm in the favored areas east of the mountains
iGRXY
Member
I still stand that this is going to end up being somewhere in the middle. Personally I think you want a flatter wave until 36 hours out.
DCK
Member
I been following this forum for almost 20 years (talkweather days included) I'm only here for snow and hurricanes and rarely chime in. Every snow system I've followed here that I can recall, the storm completely disappears 5 days out, comes back the next day too far southeast, and then makes a last minute NW shift about a day out. I will probably be wrong this time because I'm here mentioning it, but I've not thrown the towel in yet on this storm because of this.
Exactly right. As usual, it is going to take the perfect setup for us to score. I know that our last snow in 2022 was somewhat similar and most were very concerned with a major ice storm in the Upstate. Short range models started to pick up on some changes and next thing you know we stayed Snow for the majority of the storm finishing with sleet and had very little if any freezing rain.
Obviously each storm is different, and there are some concerns with this setup and storm track but there is still time to trend better or worse. I know we have a lot of new members on the board and I would encourage you all not to live and die by each model run. Anytime we get frozen precipitation in the south it basically has to be a perfect setup. We may or may not get there, but I know we are all starved for something frozen after the past few years. To all of you new members, welcome and you can learn a lot from some of the regular posters on this board. Fingers crossed we have some better runs today.
41 out of 50 members show something at 06z here vs 36 at 00z, lighter hits but more hits on the EPS
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Majority of the CMC ensemble showing the flatter look as well: central gulf to off SE coast low track
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Why is our storm dying before the Carolinas on the latest models? As with everything in meteorology it all comes back to the upper levels. The positive tilt of our trough is leading to a jet streak over the southern tier. This places the right exit region right over our storm. This is an area of upper level convergence that is basically pressing down on our storm and killing it off. Eventually the models tilt the trough, and cyclogenisis is once again favored as the storm pulls up the coast. Models are going to bounce around until our storms data is sampled over the coming days.
Jessy89
Member
Flatter less amped should mean less warm nose. If that trend holds I think you trend more towards snow/sleet N of 85 north Georgia through upstate. We’ve seen these what looks like a light event overachieve before what looks light turn into a 2-4 inch thump. Hrrr range should be interesting
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ghost1
Member
Do you live on Smith Lake? My inlaws have a place there and we come down quite a bit. Beautiful lakeI been following this forum for almost 20 years (talkweather days included) I'm only here for snow and hurricanes and rarely chime in. Every snow system I've followed here that I can recall, the storm completely disappears 5 days out, comes back the next day too far southeast, and then makes a last minute NW shift about a day out. I will probably be wrong this time because I'm here mentioning it, but I've not thrown the towel in yet on this storm because of this.
Wulfer
Member
Warm weather above 32 degrees appears to work through this upper level convergence just fine. I just got dumped on in rain last night. The South loves to be a card game for snow! The cards have to lay out just right or we fold. Sometimes I think we'd have better luck in Vegas than snow storms here.
06z AI is slightly colder and just a bit less amped
Showmeyourtds
Member
Love James- but even that estimate looks to be in the upper percentiles of what normally happens…even for the times when the TN Valley would get 2-4 & I’d be left in Birmingham with nothing.
I don't envy Metreologists trying to make general calls around winter weather in the south. This thing has went from Suppressed runs, big dog runs, nothing, to overrunning, to overamped in like 5 days time.
I'm pulling for the weaker/flatter option, which I think gets more folks (farther south) in the game to get something. That something might be ice, but if you're a fan of winter precip (even ice), that's how this ends up a win. Me personally, I'm hoping for a late bomb off the coast. But we'll see.
6z ICON with the weaker/flatter option.
6z ICON with the weaker/flatter option.