Me too brother. But that’s normally an Eastern NC special in those set ups. Like @Rain Cold said, for whatever reason the cold is taking a 45° angle in recent Winters from West to East. This shouldn’t be this hard WHEN places like Dallas are getting crushed. I’m mainly speaking for like the upstate into the Piedmont. It’s always hard for the Midlands.
My thing on that GFS run is that at the height of the storm it had 2m temps below freezing down into northern SC while the 850s were near the VA/NC border. The low was only 1007mb. That’s a heck of a warm nose for such a weak low
We have to wait and see. The models are still all over place man. But the less amp trend has started. Lets see what 12z brings...hopefully some clarity our way this thing though.
I was thinking the same thing. The snowpack up north, GFS is not good with low level cold either. Time for correction I think will start at 12z.
Honestly that track is fine and further south won't help....the problem is the cold air supply.
Yep, which I think is being underestimated...could be and probably wrong...a colder trend could be possible if the low on GFS is correct or further south. Anyway, we should wait for the season guys to analyze the new data later this morning. Going back to sleep.
It seems flatter to me though.
If you had drawn that up and told me this would occur in the first week of January, I'd think Upstate SC would have a solid hit here.
Snow for TN, ice/mixed precip for NE GA, upstate SC and northern NC. Looks like this is a more suppressed run than the 00z. AIFS had a similar idea.
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Yea it wasnt a 5 mile off the mark bust. Above freez I ng has made up past house. Ice still accumulating here in GBoro. The models where off by a solid 60 miles.minimum , 24 hours out.
I still stand that this is going to end up being somewhere in the middle. Personally I think you want a flatter wave until 36 hours out.
I been following this forum for almost 20 years (talkweather days included) I'm only here for snow and hurricanes and rarely chime in. Every snow system I've followed here that I can recall, the storm completely disappears 5 days out, comes back the next day too far southeast, and then makes a last minute NW shift about a day out. I will probably be wrong this time because I'm here mentioning it, but I've not thrown the towel in yet on this storm because of this.
Do you live on Smith Lake? My inlaws have a place there and we come down quite a bit. Beautiful lakeI been following this forum for almost 20 years (talkweather days included) I'm only here for snow and hurricanes and rarely chime in. Every snow system I've followed here that I can recall, the storm completely disappears 5 days out, comes back the next day too far southeast, and then makes a last minute NW shift about a day out. I will probably be wrong this time because I'm here mentioning it, but I've not thrown the towel in yet on this storm because of this.
Warm weather above 32 degrees appears to work through this upper level convergence just fine. I just got dumped on in rain last night. The South loves to be a card game for snow! The cards have to lay out just right or we fold. Sometimes I think we'd have better luck in Vegas than snow storms here.
06z AI is slightly colder and just a bit less amped
Love James- but even that estimate looks to be in the upper percentiles of what normally happens…even for the times when the TN Valley would get 2-4 & I’d be left in Birmingham with nothing.
