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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

The Canadian gives me 6+ inches of snow there and would have been more but for a sleet period. Yet checking my sounding I'm 23f at the surface, not even close to being above 32 anywhere from 700mb to the surface and the sounding still says sleet. I'm not sure how it sleet with no melting level. So maybe in areas further south it's not correct on it's depiction of ice.
 
John1122 said:
The Canadian gives me 6+ inches of snow there and would have been more but for a sleet period. Yet checking my sounding I'm 23f at the surface, not even close to being above 32 anywhere from 700mb to the surface and the sounding still says sleet. I'm not sure how it sleet with no melting level. So maybe in areas further south it's not correct on it's depiction of ice.
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Was just coming here to say this. All of the layers are below freezing and the map depicts zr.
 
If anyone was curious about the “Appalachian wedge” or “CAD” it’s basically the green area. Imo there’s not a ton of benefit outside of that boundary in a marginal winter storm setupIMG_0894.jpeg
 
UKMet is the much less phased option in the end. Flat west to east slider

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You’re still getting your fair share of amped and flat operationals. I still think a blend is the most reasonable outcome (which oddly enough would lean more to the AI models). At least for my area everything from a crippling ice storm to 4-7” of snow is still on the table
 
@winterwx it just seems we are in a pretty good spot on most solutions. I am starting to think we will actually see something. If that continues tomorrow, I may actually start to get a little excited. Even if this is a light event, we are strangely due.
 
The snowpack being dropped literally right now to the north of this system is going to cause some congestion in and confusion for the models for sure. The models will go back and forth like they always do until we are 48 hours out for systems like this. Not sure how the AI models handle this since they haven't been around long enough to see a scenario like this other than being fed historical data.
 
Totally disregard these thoughts as uneducated but I feel like everywhere in the south north of I-20 and west of I-74 for the NC folks are more likely than not gonna see winter weather.

Tennessee, Arkansas, N. Alabama and M. Mississippi are more likely to see more of a snow event, while Georgia/SC/NC are most likely looking at a snow-to-ice event, with the amount of snow seen before the changeover TBD. Also, both the 18z and 00z GFS likes the idea of backside snow for the NC folks.
 
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