Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[bouncycorn]

Jeez.. if this verified, it'd be a pretty serious disaster. Highly unlikely tho.

 

[accu35]

 

[John1122]

The Canadian gives me 6+ inches of snow there and would have been more but for a sleet period. Yet checking my sounding I'm 23f at the surface, not even close to being above 32 anywhere from 700mb to the surface and the sounding still says sleet. I'm not sure how it sleet with no melting level. So maybe in areas further south it's not correct on it's depiction of ice.

 

[NCSNOW]

Took all weekend. But writing is on the wall, getting Seaboard runner. Right now looks to be just inland , so we all get to dabble between sleet an frzng rn mostly. With a white half inch on top as she departs, if your lucky.

 

[vtrap90]

View attachment 160202

If we take this at face value, and even cut the ice in half. Northern Louisiana and West Central Mississippi are toast.

 

[winterwx]

The Canadian gives me 6+ inches of snow there and would have been more but for a sleet period. Yet checking my sounding I'm 23f at the surface, not even close to being above 32 anywhere from 700mb to the surface and the sounding still says sleet. I'm not sure how it sleet with no melting level. So maybe in areas further south it's not correct on it's depiction of ice.

Was just coming here to say this. All of the layers are below freezing and the map depicts zr.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

I believe that algorithm must be wrong. No way you have a corridor of ice that wide. I just can't happen. Check soundings....

 

[bouncycorn]

Some interesting GEFS members here..

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Was just coming here to say this. All of the layers are below freezing and the map depicts zr.

Where is the 850 line?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Cut CMC totals by 85%

 

[NoSnowATL]

Cut CMC totals by 85%

95%

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If anyone was curious about the “Appalachian wedge” or “CAD” it’s basically the green area. Imo there’s not a ton of benefit outside of that boundary in a marginal winter storm setup

 

[winterwx]

Where is the 850 line?

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

O ICE FOR ME PLEASE!

 

[BullCityWx]

I think this might be an even bigger GEFS run than 18z but it’s still loading

 

[NCSNOW]

Lol at ukmet

 

[SnowmasterATL]

Cut CMC totals by 85%

100% for Atlanta lol

 

[Pup12]

View attachment 160202

Is this to mean heavy snow above it? Or nothing?

 

[vtrap90]

Is this to mean heavy snow above it? Or nothing?

There is a 95% chance this will not happen. The CMC is very aggressive with ice and do not take this seriously.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Starting to notice that gefs members are doing what the icon did and have 2 rounds of overrunning precip. Lot more mixed precip though

 

[griteater]

UKMet is the much less phased option in the end. Flat west to east slider

 

[buckinbronco]

UKMET. Not great for NC, but acceptable for areas further west.

 

[vtrap90]

 

[tennessee storm]

UKMet is the much less phased option in the end. Flat west to east slider

Yeah but it’s more amped than the 12 run. Trends pointing to a amped up system for sure tonight

 

[iGRXY]

You’re still getting your fair share of amped and flat operationals. I still think a blend is the most reasonable outcome (which oddly enough would lean more to the AI models). At least for my area everything from a crippling ice storm to 4-7” of snow is still on the table

 

[DixieBlizzard]

@winterwx it just seems we are in a pretty good spot on most solutions. I am starting to think we will actually see something. If that continues tomorrow, I may actually start to get a little excited. Even if this is a light event, we are strangely due.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If the UK isn’t following the Don’nado mega phase trend I wouldn’t expect the Euro to do so either. Ukie bought us some time there. Prob a good way to end the night

 

[RDUHeatIsland]

Like 18z never even happened lol

 

[bouncycorn]

About ready to throw in the towel for my back yard. Seems like I'll be sitting right on the rain side of the r/s line as I have been for the last several systems.

 

[Ross]

Like 18z never even happened lol
View attachment 160215

honestly don't know how much of a value add this model is right now. it doesn't have a grip on the situation

 

[vtrap90]

The snowpack being dropped literally right now to the north of this system is going to cause some congestion in and confusion for the models for sure. The models will go back and forth like they always do until we are 48 hours out for systems like this. Not sure how the AI models handle this since they haven't been around long enough to see a scenario like this other than being fed historical data.

 

[tennessee storm]

If the UK isn’t following the Don’nado mega phase trend I wouldn’t expect the Euro to do so either. Ukie bought us some time there. Prob a good way to end the night

Going say euro go amped up tonight. We soon see. We starting get some better sampling now

 

[BullCityWx]

Like 18z never even happened lol
View attachment 160215

just less QPF overall

 

[Snowflowxxl]

About ready to throw in the towel for my back yard. Seems like I'll be sitting right on the rain side of the r/s line as I have been for the last several systems.

This was always a mountains event in GA unfortunately

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Current obs are observing the base of the subtropical ridge in the pacific slightly stronger then modeled, esp vs the GFS

 

[Ethan80963]

When are the waves getting sampled? When should we be looking for that data input?

 

[Arcc]

Poor Tuscaloosa. I hope they didn’t get their hopes up earlier.

 

[RDUHeatIsland]

When are the waves getting sampled? When should we be looking for that data input?

It's starting to come ashore now so we should have data Monday night

 

[KatrinaRuns]

Poor Tuscaloosa. I hope they didn’t get their hopes up earlier.

I’ve given up. I’ve been burned too many times.

 

[albertwilsonjr]

I just want a little slice of the snow mother nature is giving out. Is that too much to ask for


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