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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

LP decides to go boom in the NC sounds? Let's see how long that solution continues
 
TBH, the model flips aren't that odd to me at all. This is super complex wave interaction. Even without that, this is 4-5 days away. Won't come into close consensus until 2 days or so (Wednesday). May not be for the better, but there will be plenty more changes
 
ChattaVOL said:
37c94ab259607097465d6eaad14cb1ae.png



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Lmao at the ATL snow hole
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I wouldn’t say substantially worse, but the worst we’ve seen from the GFS so far. Whatever that big boner ridge poking down from the lakes is, it needs to stop and reverse soon. Im
Sure this has everything to do with the amplified trend and warm air getting pulled in from the south View attachment 160192
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It’s sucks but at the same time its what’s resulting in cold air damming influencing in this setup more, but it really only helps for ZR/IP, GFS has a 1034 prior to the system around WV
 
griteater said:
TBH, the model flips aren't that odd to me at all. This is super complex wave interaction. Even without that, this is 4-5 days away. Won't come into close consensus until 2 days or so (Wednesday). May not be for the better, but there will be plenty more changes
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This LP tack is lining up more precisely each set of runs if you ask me. Looks slightly inland and going to bomb more and more northward. MA special I think
 
That 7 inches on the clown is suposedly 80% sleet per gfs. I expect sleet man to show up here fri night at some point. Just dont know if its gonna be for 1 hour or 12hrs.
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 160197
This is probably the most realistic outcome
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Something like this is where I think we'll end up. It just doesn't seem physically possible to get a southeast snowstorm anymore. It just doesn't seem to be able to happen.
 
How many major ice storms has the Canadian shown us over the years, not saying it won't happen but tempering expectations a little. Ice certainly will be an issue to some degree as the CAD seem to be getting colder each model run but not usually as catastrophic as the CMC depicts
 
Interesting. Checking out some 2m temps there on that last GFS run. It looks like that wedge digs south of I-85 after 6pm on Friday and doesn’t break above freezing until after 6am Saturday.
 
Metwannabe said:
How many major ice storms has the Canadian shown us over the years, not saying it won't happen but tempering expectations a little. Ice certainly will be an issue to some degree as the CAD seem to be getting colder each model run but not usually as catastrophic as the CMC depicts
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Only thing I will say with this is normally the thermals are very very marginal. Pretty much most of the guidance has BL temps in the 20's. The majority of what falls is going to stick whether it's sleet or ZR.
 
jrips27 said:
There’s just no way anything close to this happens imo. Maybe in the CAD regions but this seems really excessive

View attachment 160199
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It is. CMC is the worst offender of all NWP when it comes to crazy ZR numbers. Feel like most models oversell it but the cmc is always too much
 
Can and GFS track are very agreeable. Hate I 95 tracks through GA/SC.
The ICe Will be pronounced as advertised. Easily.50-1.0 qpf with these 2 ops in piedmont regions.
 
jackendrickwx said:
It is. CMC is the worst offender of all NWP when it comes to crazy ZR numbers. Feel like most models oversell it but the cmc is always too much
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It's like NAM wind forecast, if that and the CMC ice forecast over the years verified we'd be a barren land because all trees would have been obliterated by now
 
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