To my untrained eye this looks like more amped and over-running for NC?
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
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Snowgirl67
Member
Thank you so much for that. It can get pretty confusing for those of us who can’t read the models with all the maps posted and “this run is great” and “it’s over” posts. lol. I appreciate the clarification. Trying my best to learn! Appreciate everyone here!
These lows will never plow into a CAD, they will do whatever they need to bend around/transfer in the worst case scenario. It worries me for a line from Newberry and North/Northwest around these parts, who could easily have the track just close enough to cause mid level temperature problems but CAD locked in, even insinuated at lower levels in the 30F range. Worried for larger areas like Charlotte too.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
GEFS mean still is higher than past 2 runs at 12Z
rburrel2
Member
12z GEFS is a thing of beauty for the upstate. A front end thump with a little sleet and ice on the back end seems like where we're heading(Upstate), and the front end thump could hit hard.... Honestly looks like it could play out a lot like January 16, 2022.
beanskip
Member
Man, DPs are crazy low in front of the storm -- I imagine wet bulbs are going to be a bit lower than people anticipate. The in-situ will be strong with this one once precip moistens up the column. CMC may be overdone, but I wouldn't assume the GFS isn't UNDERdone either.
Keep an eye on the NAM when we get closer -- one of its rare (only?) strengths is CAD temp profiles.
Keep an eye on the NAM when we get closer -- one of its rare (only?) strengths is CAD temp profiles.
Twister
Member
I know this sounds like a wish cast. But I'm sticking to 2-3" of snow .25" ice NW upstate
2mt at the height of the events on all modeling. CMC is likely to cold here but this is a strong wedge being shown in all seriousness. I mean all modeling gets GSP/CLT down into the 20s, other then the main euro
SnowNiner
Member
I doubt it would be what the CMC shows, it has a known cold bias. But not only that I'm not sure we have the high pressure we need to keep a classic CAD in place. I think what has gotten us this far is the very cold and dry air that will be in place, and the evaporative cooling will keep an in-situ wedge in place for the storm. If we had a true cold feed like that I wouldn't worry about amping at all.
But again, as @griteater mentioned above, it's not trending amped. Overnight runs were just weak and strung out. It's only Monday so I'm hoping in the next couple of days we'll trend to a bit more phasing, more neutral tilt to get a wetter system.
12z GEFS looks a little better for everybody. Just a little bit colder (at 850) for central/eastern NC but a little more colder for Ga and upstate folks.
Another note to new members:
Ever notice how your forecast will be for sunny and temperatures in the lower 60s, yet it will be cloudy, drizzling and 42F all day instead?
This usually happens when a wedge (CAD) will lock in and be very slow to get out versus what the modeling says. The modeling struggles with how strong and how long the wedge will hold on virtually every time, being way too fast to erode it.
This is why seeing these temperature maps with the lower 30s and 20s is worrying. Usually, we are a bit colder at the surface, at least, and it holds longer than the models show.
Ever notice how your forecast will be for sunny and temperatures in the lower 60s, yet it will be cloudy, drizzling and 42F all day instead?
This usually happens when a wedge (CAD) will lock in and be very slow to get out versus what the modeling says. The modeling struggles with how strong and how long the wedge will hold on virtually every time, being way too fast to erode it.
This is why seeing these temperature maps with the lower 30s and 20s is worrying. Usually, we are a bit colder at the surface, at least, and it holds longer than the models show.
bud006
Member
Noticed that for our corner of the world - little more that 2” per my squinting at Pivotal. Feels like there are quite a few areas to resolve, but I have told my people here north of Atlanta to pay attention.
—30—
This feels like a NAM RGEM special where we are watching like a hawk come wed-thur to get an idea of what we are looking at
Hour 138 and probably little more
Will nice increase. From 6z and 12z GEFS.
iGRXY
Member
Very solid uptick
Plenty of higher end members, but also lots of whiffs.
Edit: member 20 would be the closest to a board wide hit.
Edit: member 20 would be the closest to a board wide hit.
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Showmeyourtds
Member
Piggybacking off of this....."Never bet against the wedge" ($1 to Chris aka @deltadog03). If you think its gonna scour out too quickly, it won't...and if it doesn't appear that its going to grind far enough to the West, it will.
Tsappfrog20
Member
WXinCanton
Member
12z UKMeT
WXinCanton
Member
SnowwxAtl
Member
And for the record...that low will not plow into the CAD either.
We definitely want these odds higher but this is an increase from 6z:
12z GEFS:
6z:
12z GEFS:
6z:
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
SimeonNC
Member
The recent modeling shows a very weak high around the MA, this, plus the snowpack and the preceding cold air will probably make the CAD stronger than thought(not as extensive as the CMC shows ofc).
I think I caused a misunderstanding with my post as I meant to specifically say the CMC might come closest to verifying when it comes to 2m temps, not precip output. All I'm saying is that verbatim and if things go in the way the 12z suite so far shows, I won't be surprised to see the CAD areas between 26-29F during the storm instead of the 29-32F models show.
WXinCanton
Member
Rest of the SE UKMET
I know this has been asked and answered before, but UKMET is a solid model yes? Good verification?
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Is that all snow or is it including ice?Rest of the SE UKMET
How does the surface low track look with this?Rest of the SE UKMET
ColdCoreLow
Member
Ukie + ECMWF =
The UKMET is a good all around model. Like all the others, sometimes it wins and loses, but overall we prefer it to be in our camp versus many others, IE. Canadian.
It used to be, the UKMET would be a precursor to the ECMWF run since they both come from across the pond with similar data assimilation.
hashslingingslasher256
Member
M
howdy neighbor from south Gadsden by the 759 exit!!
NCWeatherhound
Member
Might make it tough to get to Littlejohn for the FSU game Saturday...
WXinCanton
Member
PCB to Jacksonville roughly
rburrel2
Member
The ukmet is easily all snow in the upstate and we would actually be getting decent ratio powder. 850's -4 or -5C during the event. Surface temps are 32 on the ukmet but that's to be expected with it... always way too warm at the surface this far out.
There has been minimal changes in the last couple of days from the UKMET, for North AL and GA. So for the snow weenies, this is the one to watch.
Storm5
Member
Today's 12z ukmet was very similar to yesterday's 12z . Much flatter . Seems to be trending away from the early amped idea. Maybe it bombs off the coast but I think the gfs is way too amped early on. Let's see what the 12z euro has
For now we hug the ukmet
For now we hug the ukmet
UKMET is so different with the northern stream evolution. It loads it up full of steam. Nothing really that close to it, maybe the graphcast and the icon but it even they look different and are more + tilt
Anybody got GEFS LP centers plot? 850 temp mean was colder than I expected it to be and interested to see where the mean low track is
