Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[Snowgirl67]

For new members, these high ice accumulation maps rarely, if ever, happen. Especially from the cold bias Canadian model.
Not saying it's impossible, but it's unlikely.

Thank you so much for that. It can get pretty confusing for those of us who can’t read the models with all the maps posted and “this run is great” and “it’s over” posts. lol. I appreciate the clarification. Trying my best to learn! Appreciate everyone here!

 

[weather nerd]

I agree and I think the CAD is going to get colder each model run. And the low will be push further southwest.

These lows will never plow into a CAD, they will do whatever they need to bend around/transfer in the worst case scenario. It worries me for a line from Newberry and North/Northwest around these parts, who could easily have the track just close enough to cause mid level temperature problems but CAD locked in, even insinuated at lower levels in the 30F range. Worried for larger areas like Charlotte too.

 

[ForsythSnow]

GEFS mean still is higher than past 2 runs at 12Z

 

[rburrel2]

12z GEFS is a thing of beauty for the upstate. A front end thump with a little sleet and ice on the back end seems like where we're heading(Upstate), and the front end thump could hit hard.... Honestly looks like it could play out a lot like January 16, 2022.

 

[beanskip]

Man, DPs are crazy low in front of the storm -- I imagine wet bulbs are going to be a bit lower than people anticipate. The in-situ will be strong with this one once precip moistens up the column. CMC may be overdone, but I wouldn't assume the GFS isn't UNDERdone either.

Keep an eye on the NAM when we get closer -- one of its rare (only?) strengths is CAD temp profiles.

 

[Twister]

12z GEFS is a thing of beauty for the upstate. A front end thump with a little sleet and ice on the back end seems like where we're heading(Upstate), and the front end thump could hit hard.... Honestly looks like it could play out a lot like January 16, 2022.

I know this sounds like a wish cast. But I'm sticking to 2-3" of snow .25" ice NW upstate

 

[NBAcentel]

2mt at the height of the events on all modeling. CMC is likely to cold here but this is a strong wedge being shown in all seriousness. I mean all modeling gets GSP/CLT down into the 20s, other then the main euro

 

[SnowNiner]

I feel like the 2m temp profiles on the CMC will probably come closest to verifying, the AIFS and Euro have been trending colder and colder.

@Myfrotho704_ this is looking like a classic SE CAD storm for us and other W. Piedmont folk

I doubt it would be what the CMC shows, it has a known cold bias. But not only that I'm not sure we have the high pressure we need to keep a classic CAD in place. I think what has gotten us this far is the very cold and dry air that will be in place, and the evaporative cooling will keep an in-situ wedge in place for the storm. If we had a true cold feed like that I wouldn't worry about amping at all.

But again, as @griteater mentioned above, it's not trending amped. Overnight runs were just weak and strung out. It's only Monday so I'm hoping in the next couple of days we'll trend to a bit more phasing, more neutral tilt to get a wetter system.

 

[FallsLake]

12z GEFS looks a little better for everybody. Just a little bit colder (at 850) for central/eastern NC but a little more colder for Ga and upstate folks.

 

[weather nerd]

Another note to new members:

Ever notice how your forecast will be for sunny and temperatures in the lower 60s, yet it will be cloudy, drizzling and 42F all day instead?

This usually happens when a wedge (CAD) will lock in and be very slow to get out versus what the modeling says. The modeling struggles with how strong and how long the wedge will hold on virtually every time, being way too fast to erode it.

This is why seeing these temperature maps with the lower 30s and 20s is worrying. Usually, we are a bit colder at the surface, at least, and it holds longer than the models show.

 

[bud006]

GEFS mean still is higher than past 2 runs at 12Z

Noticed that for our corner of the world - little more that 2” per my squinting at Pivotal. Feels like there are quite a few areas to resolve, but I have told my people here north of Atlanta to pay attention.

—30—

 

[DopplerWx]

This feels like a NAM RGEM special where we are watching like a hawk come wed-thur to get an idea of what we are looking at

 

[TheBatman]

Hour 138 and probably little more

Will nice increase. From 6z and 12z GEFS.

 

[iGRXY]

Very solid uptick

 

[cyclogent]

Plenty of higher end members, but also lots of whiffs.
Edit: member 20 would be the closest to a board wide hit.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Another note to new members:

Ever notice how your forecast will be for sunny and temperatures in the lower 60s, yet it will be cloudy, drizzling and 42F all day instead?

This usually happens when a wedge (CAD) will lock in and be very slow to get out versus what the modeling says. The modeling struggles with how strong and how long the wedge will hold on virtually every time, being way too fast to erode it.

Piggybacking off of this....."Never bet against the wedge" ($1 to Chris aka @deltadog03). If you think its gonna scour out too quickly, it won't...and if it doesn't appear that its going to grind far enough to the West, it will.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

12z GEFS looks a little better for everybody. Just a little bit colder (at 850) for central/eastern NC but a little more colder for Ga and upstate folks.

Can you share a picture please


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[WXinCanton]

12z UKMeT

 

[weather nerd]

Do we have ensemble member maps for IP/ZR too, instead of just snow ones? I'm willing to bet there is a mess on those maps, if they exist.

 

[WXinCanton]

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Piggybacking off of this....."Never bet against the wedge" ($1 to Chris aka @deltadog03). If you think its gonna scour out too quickly, it won't...and if it doesn't appear that its going to grind far enough to the West, it will.

And for the record...that low will not plow into the CAD either.

 

[FallsLake]

We definitely want these odds higher but this is an increase from 6z:

12z GEFS:

6z:

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SimeonNC]

I doubt it would be what the CMC shows, it has a known cold bias. But not only that I'm not sure we have the high pressure we need to keep a classic CAD in place. I think what has gotten us this far is the very cold and dry air that will be in place, and the evaporative cooling will keep an in-situ wedge in place for the storm. If we had a true cold feed like that I wouldn't worry about amping at all.

But again, as @griteater mentioned above, it's not trending amped. Overnight runs were just weak and strung out. It's only Monday so I'm hoping in the next couple of days we'll trend to a bit more phasing, more neutral tilt to get a wetter system.

The recent modeling shows a very weak high around the MA, this, plus the snowpack and the preceding cold air will probably make the CAD stronger than thought(not as extensive as the CMC shows ofc).

I think I caused a misunderstanding with my post as I meant to specifically say the CMC might come closest to verifying when it comes to 2m temps, not precip output. All I'm saying is that verbatim and if things go in the way the 12z suite so far shows, I won't be surprised to see the CAD areas between 26-29F during the storm instead of the 29-32F models show.

 

[WXinCanton]

Rest of the SE UKMET

 

[CobraMedic]

I know this has been asked and answered before, but UKMET is a solid model yes? Good verification?

 

[Deleted member 609]

Rest of the SE UKMET

Is that all snow or is it including ice?

 

[CaryWx]

Rest of the SE UKMET

How does the surface low track look with this?

 

[ColdCoreLow]

I know this has been asked and answered before, but UKMET is a solid model yes? Good verification?

Ukie + ECMWF =

 

[weather nerd]

I know this has been asked and answered before, but UKMET is a solid model yes? Good verification?

The UKMET is a good all around model. Like all the others, sometimes it wins and loses, but overall we prefer it to be in our camp versus many others, IE. Canadian.

It used to be, the UKMET would be a precursor to the ECMWF run since they both come from across the pond with similar data assimilation.

 

[hashslingingslasher256]

M

I know this has been asked and answered before, but UKMET is a solid model yes? Good verification?

howdy neighbor from south Gadsden by the 759 exit!!

 

[NCWeatherhound]

Here's a 12z model summary for Clemson, SC.

Model

Run Cycle

Total Qpf

All snow?

all frozen?

Surface temps at best point of qpf

time of best qpf

notes

Snow/sleet guess

precip start

icon

12z jan6

0.19

Maybe

yes

30

1am Sat

sleet mixes in at height

1.5

4pm friday

gfs

12z jan6

0.7

NO

yes

29

4pm Friday

3inchsnow, 1inch ice

3.5

9am friday

CMC

12z jan6

1

NO

yes

27

8pm Friday

mostly sleet, some frzrain

2.5

5pm friday

Might make it tough to get to Littlejohn for the FSU game Saturday...

 

[WXinCanton]

How does the surface low track look with this?

PCB to Jacksonville roughly

 

[rburrel2]

The ukmet is easily all snow in the upstate and we would actually be getting decent ratio powder. 850's -4 or -5C during the event. Surface temps are 32 on the ukmet but that's to be expected with it... always way too warm at the surface this far out.

 

[CobraMedic]

There has been minimal changes in the last couple of days from the UKMET, for North AL and GA. So for the snow weenies, this is the one to watch.

The UKMET is a good all around model. Like all the others, sometimes it wins and loses, but overall we prefer it to be in our camp versus many others, IE. Canadian.

It used to be, the UKMET would be a precursor to the ECMWF run since they both come from across the pond.

 

[Storm5]

Today's 12z ukmet was very similar to yesterday's 12z . Much flatter . Seems to be trending away from the early amped idea. Maybe it bombs off the coast but I think the gfs is way too amped early on. Let's see what the 12z euro has

For now we hug the ukmet

 

[NBAcentel]

UKMET is so different with the northern stream evolution. It loads it up full of steam. Nothing really that close to it, maybe the graphcast and the icon but it even they look different and are more + tilt

 

[jackendrickwx]

Anybody got GEFS LP centers plot? 850 temp mean was colder than I expected it to be and interested to see where the mean low track is

 

[NBAcentel]

Anybody got GEFS LP centers plot? 850 temp mean was colder than I expected it to be and interested to see where the mean low track is

 

[griteater]

The UKMet does what you want to see in order to get more snow south. It sends the base of the northern stream wave into Oklahoma and flattens the eastern ridging over time, and it sends the remnants of the baja wave to the Tacoria bar in Acapulco. It's the antithesis of the GFS