Look at the amount of gulf air.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I had seen a reduced amount this morning so it's good to see we went back to a higher chance. Good trends.
iGRXY
Member
At worst the upstate is getting ice. 2Ms have trended colder and colder.
rburrel2
Member
Just wait until the NAM/RGEM get ahold of this... They're gonna show the surface bottoming out in the low to mid 20's I bet.
Just look at the amped GFS... it's at 31/11 for GSP at 7am Friday with a thick cloud deck and snow knocking on the door. At 3pm it's at 30/27 for GSP and ripping snow.
I'm not buying that at all, (for surface temps). It's going to be much colder.
Literally everything trended better with colder air & more moisture on 12z guidance. You can see the spike in moisture on the latest EPS WITHOUT the spike in temperatures. 
Snowflowxxl
Member
How much longer until the SREF is available. Or is that even a thing anymore. I haven’t been super active since 2020
As some of the other guys around South Carolina have been saying, I too believe we’ll get that El Niño style finger of precip in early if this here is the final scenario we’re looking at. Which it isn’t. But we’re getting close
Stormsfury
Member
Two things I'm confident about.
Continued model cycle chaos.
Temps will verify a little colder than currently modeled (except the CMC). I believe that some of the WAA surges at the surface shown across lower SC will likely be overplayed, especially on the GFS driving the SFC low inland thru the Midlands of SC (could happen still, especially if the S flow like what this current system brought is that stout). However, the DPs look like with the FGEN band out ahead will enforce some evapo/diabatic cooling processes, especially if the precip is relatively light, would serve to fight back on sfc based warming. Second, if the wedging is enforced strong enough, that SFC low will have to reroute underneath and/or reform along the offshore baroclinicity between the coastline and Western Wall of the Gulf Stream,
Continued model cycle chaos.
Temps will verify a little colder than currently modeled (except the CMC). I believe that some of the WAA surges at the surface shown across lower SC will likely be overplayed, especially on the GFS driving the SFC low inland thru the Midlands of SC (could happen still, especially if the S flow like what this current system brought is that stout). However, the DPs look like with the FGEN band out ahead will enforce some evapo/diabatic cooling processes, especially if the precip is relatively light, would serve to fight back on sfc based warming. Second, if the wedging is enforced strong enough, that SFC low will have to reroute underneath and/or reform along the offshore baroclinicity between the coastline and Western Wall of the Gulf Stream,
chapelhillwx
Member
IIRC it's on odd hours so 3Z, 9Z, 15Z, 21Z.
They are talking about the Deep South snow potential on TWC right now. I’m eating my lunch and watching the weather channel like the good ol days
rburrel2
Member
I know some are going to laugh... But we are heading to a consensus snow footprint/5h map/thermal profile/qpf forecast that the EURO AI has been more/less showing consistently for 4 days now.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Are these the plume viewer things? I remember them largely being hogwash...but if they've gotten better, might be worth a gander.
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
Yikes.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
The Canadian is sooo bad at this. The lows and ice maps it spits out are ridiculous. You would think they would do some upgrades.
Well the EURO AI did outstanding with yesterday and today’s storm.
chapelhillwx
Member
If the world ended today, without a doubt, the Euro AI would be the model winner for the storm (and other AI ideas / runs). Most consistent with the current model consensus over the course of time
TWC just showed an 8-12” snow graphic for basically all of east Texas. I know those weenies are going crazy right now
albertwilsonjr
Member
Anybody have the euro ai snow totals
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rburrel2
Member
12z JMA is a qpf bomb... Absolute hammer job for Northern AL/GA/NW SC and Western/Central NC... A little too amped/warm for Charlotte to Raleigh though. Lots of Ice for those areas though.
tractor girl
Member
actual crimes against humanity right here
With this look on the euro, it’s going to be hard not to get a pretty good winter storm to the east. Something is going to give here soon I think
Stormlover
Member
it needs to get closer to be useable
Snowflowxxl
Member
That what I asked, how much closer? 48 hours?
rburrel2
Member
The 12z JMA is basically in the Ukmet camp, but a stronger version of it with a little more warm nose issues in Eastern NC. But it's absolutely the perfect 5h evolution for Northern AL/GA/Upstate SC to get a major snow storm.
Bigedd09
Member
This is how radars looked back in the day prior to a major winter storm in the Carolina's
If you showed me this graphic with no other details I’d say there was about to be a broad swath of 6-12” due east from there. Unfortunately, there’s a lot more to it.
Sure does look like one doesn’t it?
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Mogreps-G says areas further south might still be able to see accumulations. 
tractor girl
Member
Canandian says check the oil and gas in your generators. Eastern NC amped to heck.
rusrius
Member
Don't they always? At least for the Midlands. 2 inches since 2014 will verify that unfortunately.
It has not budged off the southern extent of that frozen line for what seems like 3 days now
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Hoping for a little better track than that. Beyond the OBX
Batman36
Member
FINAL snow map? Soon? 4+ days before the potential storm? With all of the inconsistencies of the models?
Good luck with that!
Stormlover
Member
Anyone know where to get a JMA map showing snowfall?
This wedge is wedging. At one point during the 12z GFS run 2m temps were still below freezing about 40 miles northwest of the sfc low. Sheesh
rburrel2
Member
Euro AI buries the Upstate and North GA... more qpf than last run. Colder at the surface, lawd.