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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Myfrotho704_ said:
I mean we’re approaching what grandma and grandpa experienced type wedge status here. Funny because the mid levels are warming ever so slightly each run but the surface just keeps trending colder. mid-upper 20s is impressive View attachment 160120View attachment 160121
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Quite a bit of ice probably. Assuming when the low goes by while strengthening, any ice would change to snow as colder air pours in behind the storm?


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Billypg70 said:
I'm not expecting you to be spot on but just general idea what you see this developing into say for Far NE GA & the Western Carolinas NW of 85?
Looking at a pretty icy scenario?
More Frz, Sleet,or snow?
Probably starting as snow and changing to sleet then frz?
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Probably the later option. Could see a lot of sleet out of this when all is said and done - TBH, a lot of everything depends on just how amplified the phasing results in the H5 trough getting. If it goes neg. tilt earlier, it will pull the surface low inland and a lot of folks will get predominantly rain, with perhaps a brief front end wintry hit. Those details are impossible to pin down, but I am leaning towards the more amplified direction, personally.
 
Chazwin said:
Would you expect that if the low starts bombing out just east of say CHS that it would pull in colder 850s and switch things back to snow?
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I don't think that's a factor for us unless the 5h low winds up closing off and passing to our south; which, the way things are going... might be a possiblity?
 
griteater said:
It’s interesting that with even the wedging and ice threat shown that pretty much all the model runs have been Miller A’s. Sometimes Miller A’s with damming do still produce a non-thin swath of ice
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Definitely. Give me that track and the wedge that’s showing and there’s going to be a major storm. I don’t care if it climbs the coast afterwards. However, if the regions east want to get in on the deformation band, they will want the low to keep moving east/northeast I to the Atlantic. Right @Metwannabe?
 
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packfan98 said:
Definitely. Give me that track and the wedge that’s showing and there’s going to be a major storm. I don’t care if it climbs the coast afterwards. However, if the regions east want to get in on the deformation band, they will want the low to keep moving east/northeast I to the Atlantic. Right @Metwannabe?
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I'm east but I'm more north so I can score when Rah does not, with that said all depends on exactly how close to the coast this thing bombs out (if it does). Right along the coast and yeah I need it to move more e/ne to drag a dying deform band through here, but it it's off the coast 100 miles or so I'm fine it it climbs up the coast.
 
1300m said:
Probably the later option. Could see a lot of sleet out of this when all is said and done - TBH, a lot of everything depends on just how amplified the phasing results in the H5 trough getting. If it goes neg. tilt earlier, it will pull the surface low inland and a lot of folks will get predominantly rain, with perhaps a brief front end wintry hit. Those details are impossible to pin down, but I am leaning towards the more amplified direction, personally.
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What part of the pattern is making you think it’s going to be so amped? Today ensembles trended away from a full phase, and to a weaker system I thought. Why do you feel it’s going to phase and amp so much?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s possible. I don’t want to be a downer and I am still hopeful but my concern is that this is no longer a “special” type of cold airmass we’re dealing with. These run of the mill/anomolous cold shots work for areas North and west of I-85 and they probably always will in our lifetime but for the rest of us it just doesn’t get the job done. No matter how many times we all wish it did. I hope I am wrong here. Let’s go get it at 00z

We listen and we don’t judge
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Yeah seems like 85 is the new 95.
 
I’ll still stand that for the Western Carolinas and NE Georgia, this is going to be Jan 2022 all over again. Hell going into that one we had pretty much gave up on snow 3 or 4 days out besides maybe a quick inch or 2 on the front end. Then the HRRR quickly showed the FGEN front end thump was going to be more significant and lasting longer than anticipated and we got 7-10” in northern Spartanburg and Greenville counties. Wide spread 3-6” everywhere else east of 77 and even down into Laurens and Anderson counties. I could very easily see the same happen here before we switch to sleet or ZR. Idk about those amounts but definitely an over performing front end thump.
 
1300m said:
Probably the later option. Could see a lot of sleet out of this when all is said and done - TBH, a lot of everything depends on just how amplified the phasing results in the H5 trough getting. If it goes neg. tilt earlier, it will pull the surface low inland and a lot of folks will get predominantly rain, with perhaps a brief front end wintry hit. Those details are impossible to pin down, but I am leaning towards the more amplified direction, personally.
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also think this- leaning more amplified. Don't necessarily know if this is a bad thing- seems like we have multiple "trough digs" to worry about and given the uncertainty i could still see a more amplified pattern benefitting more of the board by spurring rapid cyclogenesis at a better location. there's a little more agreement today, the silhouette has more definition, but my confidence is totally substandard for what it usually is like 5 days out lol

it may be wishful thinking though- if i hate to rate my tone during this event i would call it "too optimistic"
 
iGRXY said:
I’ll still stand that for the Western Carolinas and NE Georgia, this is going to be Jan 2022 all over again. Hell going into that one we had pretty much gave up on snow 3 or 4 days out besides maybe a quick inch or 2 on the front end. Then the HRRR quickly showed the FGEN front end thump was going to be more significant and lasting longer than anticipated and we got 7-10” in northern Spartanburg and Greenville counties. Wide spread 3-6” everywhere else east of 77 and even down into Laurens and Anderson counties. I could very easily see the same happen here before we switch to sleet or ZR. Idk about those amounts but definitely an over performing front end thump.
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That’s definitely one of those things that the globals will have no clue of right now. I still remember that snow and sleet had been taken completely out of the point forecast for my area the afternoon before, but then GSP was scrambling with the late evening update to make changes.
 
SnowNiner said:
What part of the pattern is making you think it’s going to be so amped? Today ensembles trended away from a full phase, and to a weaker system I thought. Why do you feel it’s going to phase and amp so much?
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This is such a weird setup that features multiple digging troughs.... i think 1300m is referencing the solutions that go full negative tilt and bomb off the coast giving the mid atlantic a treat. this would likely take a lot of our southern members out of the picture unless you transpose that shortwave rounding the base of the trough by about 100 miles southeast (which, not impossible, but dont hold your breath)
 
SnowNiner said:
What part of the pattern is making you think it’s going to be so amped? Today ensembles trended away from a full phase, and to a weaker system I thought. Why do you feel it’s going to phase and amp so much?
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TBF I'm putting very little stock in the ensembles in regard to the phasing - the overall pattern yes, the actual phasing and resultant storm (and snow mean, low track, etc however, no). Some if it is also just past precedent of once you get to this point, which is we're on the precipice of the full phase, we've seen so many times the northern stream come in stronger, dig harder, and systems amplify (this is the genesis of the fabled northwest trend usually). The northern stream is the only thing that prevents the full phase in basically every run the past 24 hours that haven't.

It's also the fact that multiple op runs have already shown the signal. I'm certainly not guaranteeing it, but it's a myriad of factors that all point in this direction. We lost the pattern for us several days ago as the western ridge began to fold and I think we've been slow-walking towards this evolution ever since.
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One thing I think some are forgetting is while yes this is trending more amplified which tends to lead to more inland tracks, that LP is only going to go so far. It's not going to go into a CAD. It's not natural for it to do it. We've seen this for years here. It always pivots around the cold dome. It's just a matter of how far inland.
 
SnowNiner said:
What part of the pattern is making you think it’s going to be so amped? Today ensembles trended away from a full phase, and to a weaker system I thought. Why do you feel it’s going to phase and amp so much?
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Hes just watching the motion picture of all the models past few days. Im in his camp, been watching these model movies for years and you can just smell this thing getting ready to bomb and ride the seaboard,OTS. Seeing the physics models starting to catch a whiff of it today.
Praying it takes a jan 96 track and not a march 93. Track references, not output, for reference , wishcasting
 
1300m said:
TBF I'm putting very little stock in the ensembles in regard to the phasing - the overall pattern yes, the actual phasing and resultant storm (and snow mean, low track, etc however, no). Some if it is also just past precedence of once you get to this point, which is we're on the precipice of the full phase, we've seen so many times the northern stream come in stronger, dig harder, and systems amplify (this is the genesis of the fabled northwest trend usually). The northern stream is the only thing that prevents the full phase in basically every run the past 24 hours that haven't.

It's also the fact that multiple op runs have already shown the signal. I'm certainly not guaranteeing it, but it's a myriad of factors that all point in this direction. We lost the pattern for us several days ago as the western ridge began to fold and I think we've been slow-walking towards this evolution ever since.
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We went from a classic miller A pattern matching the miller A composite to a ice/hybrid miller B pattern lol
 
Tonight’s WPC 500mb forecast (days 3-5 on top row). Looks like a middle of the road “current” ensemble mean forecast. Not the super amped route

Agree with 1300 that a big key to forecasting is not just interpreting what the models are doing, but correctly forecasting where they are going / where they will end up at go time. I too am hedging a bit to the more amplified side, but it’s still early and not comfortable settling on that yet

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