That’s a really stout wedge on the AIFS 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Best I can make out (tough to do with no county lines) a line from roughly RDU west would see a decent hit. But the problem is, inch by inch all NWP is going towards the bigger phase, EC AI included. You've got to look at where we're headed moreso than where we are. Too much model interpretation here, not enough pattern recognition. Northern stream often trends stronger and that is slowly starting to happen. Couple of hiccups, but the overall trend has been clear. Hard to stop that ball rolling once it starts (more phasing, more amplification).
SnowmasterATL
Member
My TWC forecaster for winter weather for three days str8 Friday to Sunday morning in ATL. this thing is really drunk. its like it took the GFS and CMC from earlier and combine them.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,654
- Reaction score
- 10,791
They may be looking at the wrap around that comes at the end of the low. Which keeps snow showers around. Gefs has been showing this solution
The Bammer
Member
I'm on Smith Lake. Beautiful when it snows. Terrible with anything else frozen. As of now, it's looking more like the latter.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Could this be headed toward a coastal bomb scenario like the GEFS was showing?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click on the data you want and then click “Select Dimensions” and change from Europe to North America.
My own personal thought is that while this is admittedly a very complex and difficult forecast, we have been heading toward a nor'easter M.E.C.S for the past 24-36 hours. FWIW - I have started evaluating travel plans and actually had considered chasing to VA tonight and passed on it because of this potential. We've now seen the bomb scenario on multiple GFS and Euro op runs now and just now the EC AI went there. That kind of WAA will be a tough one for most locales on here to absorb and not end up with a mess - I think frozen precipitation for some on this board is almost a given, but more ice and less snow is my thought for most.
We are
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Been a few years since I get a chance to chat winter weather with people on here. Good to be back. Agree that it's getting pretty hard to avoid winter precip for western half of NC, but questions still remain for the precip type.
Avalanche
Member
Can we shift east a tad???
I’d like to see the dang baja low not kick out so fast. Told y’all that thang needed to marinate in the SW a little bit lol lol
packfan98
Moderator
Pretty textbook pass for an I-85 and west winter storm.
They are probably assuming there will be a deformation band to wrap things up.
Avalanche
Member
Hard to ignore the WAA for my area, especially given the orientation of the lp
Mixed ptypes or snow either way thats a significant winter storm, freezing line down to cae
SnowNiner
Member
Looks to me it doesn’t bomb
until it gets into the Atlantic. But I would be fine with a couple inches of snow with ice on top. It’s been 3 years, would be manna from heaven lol.
this caught my eye earlier. GFS had the low over Augusta GA and look at that wedge.
Avalanche
Member
That is impressive!!!
Seems like overall track of the storm plus some initial cold air left over from the 50/50 low extension and very weak HP is creating a strong wedge setup from the strong NE winds at the SFC as the low moves NE
SimeonNC
Member
The fact that longer range models such as the GFS/AIFS are picking up on a stout wedge already is insane but understandable given the preceding cold airmass, the high placement and the snowpack.
Imagine what our CAD could look like on the short range models
It’s interesting that with even the wedging and ice threat shown that pretty much all the model runs have been Miller A’s. Sometimes Miller A’s with damming do still produce a non-thin swath of ice
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yep, and it wouldn’t kick out for nothing a few days ago
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I mean we’re approaching what grandma and grandpa experienced type wedge status here. Funny because the mid levels are warming ever so slightly each run but the surface just keeps trending colder. mid-upper 20s is impressive 
Avalanche
Member
That is my area’s only hope
Yeah but I could see some areas further east getting in on a stout deform band on the backside. Playing with fire here though, not much if any wiggle room for around these parts
SnowmasterATL
Member
I can see this pushing south in a couple of future model runs
Thought you did a great job earlier with the graphics showing how the colder surface temperatures linked to the colder modeled temperatures to the north in fresh snow cover
I'm not expecting you to be spot on but just general idea what you see this developing into say for Far NE GA & the Western Carolinas NW of 85?
Looking at a pretty icy scenario?
More Frz, Sleet,or snow?
Probably starting as snow and changing to sleet then frz?
That’s definitely possible with a low bombing out just off the coast
pivotal has 925mb and that’s a absolute sleet fest from CLT-RAH, inches of sleet lol 
SnowmasterATL
Member
And I still think it is underestimating the wedge. ATL could be in for an icy surprise. (I don't want it though)
rburrel2
Member
The mid levels are warming on the back end, but they are getting colder for the front half of the storm since it's moving in quicker I think. Could be a mostly all snow situation with a little sleet and freezing as the back edge pushes through. (That's what January 2011 did here)
Would you expect that if the low starts bombing out just east of say CHS that it would pull in colder 850s and switch things back to snow?