It’s possible. I don’t want to be a downer and I am still hopeful but my concern is that this is no longer a “special” type of cold airmass we’re dealing with. These run of the mill/anomolous cold shots work for areas North and west of I-85 and they probably always will in our lifetime but for the rest of us it just doesn’t get the job done. No matter how many times we all wish it did. I hope I am wrong here. Let’s go get it at 00z
I think the precip is mostly over for us at this point. We stay snow until almost the very end,(I think).lol
Recipe for ice ice baby and significant in areas if that continues
Probably the later option. Could see a lot of sleet out of this when all is said and done - TBH, a lot of everything depends on just how amplified the phasing results in the H5 trough getting. If it goes neg. tilt earlier, it will pull the surface low inland and a lot of folks will get predominantly rain, with perhaps a brief front end wintry hit. Those details are impossible to pin down, but I am leaning towards the more amplified direction, personally.
I don't think that's a factor for us unless the 5h low winds up closing off and passing to our south; which, the way things are going... might be a possiblity?
Definitely. Give me that track and the wedge that’s showing and there’s going to be a major storm. I don’t care if it climbs the coast afterwards. However, if the regions east want to get in on the deformation band, they will want the low to keep moving east/northeast I to the Atlantic. Right @Metwannabe?
I definitely want snow but I would certainly take another February '87. Inches of sleet on the ground at my house that was around for days and days. About the only benefit of sleet versus snow.
I'm east but I'm more north so I can score when Rah does not, with that said all depends on exactly how close to the coast this thing bombs out (if it does). Right along the coast and yeah I need it to move more e/ne to drag a dying deform band through here, but it it's off the coast 100 miles or so I'm fine it it climbs up the coast.
Thanks
Yeah seems like 85 is the new 95.
also think this- leaning more amplified. Don't necessarily know if this is a bad thing- seems like we have multiple "trough digs" to worry about and given the uncertainty i could still see a more amplified pattern benefitting more of the board by spurring rapid cyclogenesis at a better location. there's a little more agreement today, the silhouette has more definition, but my confidence is totally substandard for what it usually is like 5 days out lol
What an awesome storm!!!
That’s definitely one of those things that the globals will have no clue of right now. I still remember that snow and sleet had been taken completely out of the point forecast for my area the afternoon before, but then GSP was scrambling with the late evening update to make changes.
This is such a weird setup that features multiple digging troughs.... i think 1300m is referencing the solutions that go full negative tilt and bomb off the coast giving the mid atlantic a treat. this would likely take a lot of our southern members out of the picture unless you transpose that shortwave rounding the base of the trough by about 100 miles southeast (which, not impossible, but dont hold your breath)
TBF I'm putting very little stock in the ensembles in regard to the phasing - the overall pattern yes, the actual phasing and resultant storm (and snow mean, low track, etc however, no). Some if it is also just past precedent of once you get to this point, which is we're on the precipice of the full phase, we've seen so many times the northern stream come in stronger, dig harder, and systems amplify (this is the genesis of the fabled northwest trend usually). The northern stream is the only thing that prevents the full phase in basically every run the past 24 hours that haven't.
It’s certainly possible, especially if the low trends stronger but at that general location
Hes just watching the motion picture of all the models past few days. Im in his camp, been watching these model movies for years and you can just smell this thing getting ready to bomb and ride the seaboard,OTS. Seeing the physics models starting to catch a whiff of it today.
We went from a classic miller A pattern matching the miller A composite to a ice/hybrid miller B pattern lol
It's sickening. We went from rooting for the Great Dane to praying for the Yorkie lol.
So basically our standard winter storm pattern the last decade and a half lol
blame the baja low man. it's never easy
Love those low tracks.
Whew that is ugly. Really warm 2 m temps for the western half of the SE.
Long range NAM has the S/W further east, more confluence and lowered heights holding, also a strong N/S dropping down.
Was just about to post this. More stream interaction and that N/S sure is MUCH stronger.
While this is true . Yorkies for some areas would be Great Danes for others. Regardless I for one have appreciated your analysis that always seems to be emotionless and to the point
