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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

I think I'm ready to rule out the suppressed/dry look.

North TX, southern AR, northern MS, northern AL up into TN I have pretty high confidence of moderate snows.

South of there, it gets dicey. Probably going to be ice to rain.

North GA to the upstate of SC to much of Central and western NC are in line for a winter storm. Precip type is tricky here. Probably mixy for a lot of the area.

Big question mark for the eastern half of NC down into Central SC. It's hard to say how much amping is likely. I do not think it's going to go Carolina Crusher and go up the coast and give the MA 2'+.

My best thinking right now.
 
Today was like cornhole, both teams have bags on the board, net sum zero. Haven't really learned anything today other than everything is on the table and it's leaning toward a weak system attm.

I want to see more phasing and bit more amp. I think our true -NAO is doing work and will keep MBY cold enough. Go big or go home. The AI models seem to show it but not sure I can trust them.

Folks I was with today started talking about this, so my guess we'll trend to a total whiff overnight, lol.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think I'm ready to rule out the suppressed/dry look.

North TX, southern AR, northern MS, northern AL up into TN I have pretty high confidence of moderate snows.

South of there, it gets dicey. Probably going to be ice to rain.

North GA to the upstate of SC to much of Central and western NC are in line for a winter storm. Precip type is tricky here. Probably mixy for a lot of the area.

Big question mark for the eastern half of NC down into Central SC. It's hard to say how much amping is likely. I do not think it's going to go Carolina Crusher and go up the coast and give the MA 2'+.

My best thinking right now.
Click to expand...
Spot on with my current thoughts.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think I'm ready to rule out the suppressed/dry look.

North TX, southern AR, northern MS, northern AL up into TN I have pretty high confidence of moderate snows.

South of there, it gets dicey. Probably going to be ice to rain.

North GA to the upstate of SC to much of Central and western NC are in line for a winter storm. Precip type is tricky here. Probably mixy for a lot of the area.

Big question mark for the eastern half of NC down into Central SC. It's hard to say how much amping is likely. I do not think it's going to go Carolina Crusher and go up the coast and give the MA 2'+.

My best thinking right now.
Click to expand...
100%!
 
Storm5 said:
I'll be in Marshall County Thursday through Sunday at the inlaws. 1300 feet . Every foot counts when it comes to southern snow storms . Looking at trends it looks like snow to an icy mess up there right now. Hopefully we can trend just a tad colder
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Chuck- I’m going to be in Helen Ga. Up in the mountains. Otherwise I think my girls are going to smith lake to see if they can score.


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Storm5 said:
I'll be in Marshall County Thursday through Sunday at the inlaws. 1300 feet . Every foot counts when it comes to southern snow storms . Looking at trends it looks like snow to an icy mess up there right now. Hopefully we can trend just a tad colder
Click to expand...

I’ve got no flipping idea what’s going to happen. I think I’d be a little less bullish if we hadn’t have had all of this record breaking cold talk 2 weeks ago. Thought there’d be no missing here but now we gotta fight the WAA. Give me some hope


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Rain Cold said:
I think I'm ready to rule out the suppressed/dry look.

North TX, southern AR, northern MS, northern AL up into TN I have pretty high confidence of moderate snows.

South of there, it gets dicey. Probably going to be ice to rain.

North GA to the upstate of SC to much of Central and western NC are in line for a winter storm. Precip type is tricky here. Probably mixy for a lot of the area.

Big question mark for the eastern half of NC down into Central SC. It's hard to say how much amping is likely. I do not think it's going to go Carolina Crusher and go up the coast and give the MA 2'+.

My best thinking right now.
Click to expand...
Great post. Right now I’m just not sure. I honestly wonder if we might end up with a Miller A/B hybrid type storm where we see a weak surface low near the Gulf Coast that transfers to a coastal off SAV/CHS. With the confluence trending better, I do think there should be a good deep CAD in place and this should set up a good sold FGEN forced snow band for the SC upstate over to the NC Piedmont. I do think that somewhere is gonna end up with a significant ice storm out of this.
 
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