Looking at the GFS/Euro/ICON/UKMET/CMC there is quite a spread. As crazy as it sounds, the ICON is right in the middle.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
SnowNiner
Member
Funny how we're coming back to this topic, but at hr 93, you can see the difference between the GFS and Euro. May have been mentioned earlier, but the ridge thru Montana has rolled over to the right more on the Euro (more anticyclonic wave break). This slows the ejection of the baja wave on the Euro compared to the GFS. It also allows the central plains trough to drop in farther west on the GFS. In addition, the 50/50 low on the Euro hasn't escaped as much and is extending farther south. All of these act to lessen the amount of ridging along the east coast and allow the GFS to phase more cleanly into a stronger storm with more amplitude on its east side...so it's warmer storm, with a more expansive precip shield to the NW.
This is the type of thing I would not want to bet against the Euro on, but it's probably not 100% correct either. Maybe give it 70% Euro / 30% GFS blend
Grit does that mean you lean more toward a less amped phase and weaker system now?
Also--GSP and RAH know their stuff on these events. They aren't always spot on, but they've been through this song and dance before. Posting this before there any gripes about them being too conservative despite model depictions. (which I expect will start anywhere between tonight and Fri afternoon) 
As I’ve been saying over the past few days, I still believe the models are underestimating the potential for winter weather. With snowpack, colder ground temperatures, and increasing model agreement, it’s just my opinion, but I feel this setup is only going to trend colder and snowier with each successive model run.
EastMSweatherguy
Member
Who’s getting NAM’D tonight!? Somebody in Mississippi is gonna love the 0Z tonight!
Triplephase93
Member
Do you still think the QPF will be higher than modeled and which areas do you see this benefiting?
Agreed. Plus we are in prime climo for these to hit. Which has killed us in mid to late Feb in years past
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Fun times folks. I'm off to bed. Hope the night crew keeps the good vibes going. I hope to open up Southernwx to 25 new pages. Night fam.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
What do we need to see happen to keep this thing from changing back to rain?
packfan98
Moderator
Rough eyeballing the 18z Euro AI precip maps looks good to me! Someone else can chime in with more detailed analysis.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Sleep tight buddy, I’m debating on whether to buy more popcorn or not…hopefully it’s a stack of pizzas
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Love the vid, just started watching!
Cold air is key here. As long as the Gulf air remains suppressed and doesn’t disrupt the CAD, the potential for winter weather continues to look promising. For those of you in Alabama, especially given your location, a more suppressed storm track is exactly what you need—and the good news is that models are trending in that direction.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Not hardly
Cad Wedge NC
Member
What are you seeing? That's not suppressed.
I think he means in the context compared to the GFS
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Both of those runs have the surface low track from the central Gulf coast to off the Carolina coast, in my book that’s a more flatter wave than going straight up the coast.
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yes, good point there too…not an inland runner
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yes, I would put good money on that too. As I said earlier today, the GFS is on crack and will fall in line with other guidance .... probably tonight or tomorrow morning.
18z AIFS is colder and wetter..
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The EC AIFs consistency has been flat out remarkable
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It's the best model we have right now. State of the art.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS Graphcast is juiced up
06Z
12Z
06Z
12Z
I’ve said this multiple times already but I am fascinated to see how it does. Feels like it’s first big public test (ik it’s not but it’s the first one for southernwx lol)
Stormsfury
Member
The wetter upticks are also enhancing the colder solutions...a little more fight back courtesy of your stubborn in-situ airmass.
Just noticed…that’s 6-10” for Huntsville to BMX
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Maybe we truly did need to get that system out of the way yesterday and today. These trends are absolute magical for the I-20 crowd. Absolutely crazy to see these trends. We’ve got a cold cold week ahead and it won’t take long to get things accumulating. Let’s keep it rolling!
Got QPF?
Less phase than the GFS, yes. I like the forecast of light to moderate system strength, but we’ll have to see how things trend going forward. In this setup, if you go big, you go warmer, especially aloft. I don’t see a path for both big and cold. That’s different from central Texas - they have big moisture potential there with some areas having the cold too.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Does that count ice as snow?
I’m sure it does. I think it includes sleet.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Very nice trend indeed
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