How do we know these trends wouldn't have take place if that storm was still ongoing?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Imo, that’s a mixed bag to rain for my fellow RDU folks just based of the position of the low off the coast. We would need a trend SE of that if we stand a chance. Still lots of time. This is just based of the latest Ai run.
As much as I love my ATL family, it’s been my experience that if Atl north see snow, it’s a struggle for RDU. That’s why it’s so hard for everyone to get in on one storm. Little changes in the track have major impacts for different parts of the SE. Trust me, I wish I could go through one of those storms where everyone got in on the action. 17 years on the weather boards and still waiting. Lol!
As much as I love my ATL family, it’s been my experience that if Atl north see snow, it’s a struggle for RDU. That’s why it’s so hard for everyone to get in on one storm. Little changes in the track have major impacts for different parts of the SE. Trust me, I wish I could go through one of those storms where everyone got in on the action. 17 years on the weather boards and still waiting. Lol!
Can I put in a dinner order for the latest Pangu?
We don’t know, but maybe it’s just coincidence. Let’s see if it keeps up.
RollTide18
Member
NWS Mobile has a 50% chance of a wintry mix in my forecast for Thursday Night, then a chance of freezing rain Friday Morning
ForsythSnow
Moderator
6 inches for all of ATL makes me skeptical as does a foot in northern Louisiana, but I'm not complaining if it happens. That or we see something amazing.
NBAcentel
Member
That front end thump trend is magical 
Chattownsnow
Member
A foot in northern Louisiana? I don’t know lol
Shinrin
Member
I've been lurking here for the past week or so checking to see how this pans out, I'm loving the trends here and hope they pan out. I'd rather get snow than Ice or a Cold rain.
To be fair, AIFS with proper snow ratios does this for Georgia --
beanskip
Member
Pretty significant trend southwest from prior two runs with the Baja low from the 0z NAM at just 30 hours out. Yes, it's the NAM ...
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Looks like the bottom text has all the things. 18z big models. 12z graphcast.
Mahomeless
Member
SL….are you right at the state line?
Stormlover
Member
15 miles from Tennessee
iGRXY
Member
N/S is faster and stronger this run.
accu35
Member
I’m only little over an hour from you west
Snowlover34
Member
I’m liking the trends here in Hazel Green near the tennessee state line
PARSONBROWN
Member
agree. think strong cutoff as normal from huntsville to cullman
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Northern stream wave. This needs to stay ahead of the Baja low to keep the storm track flatter
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
albertwilsonjr
Member
accu35
Member
Nam!! come get me!!
I think anyone north of the Tennessee River in Bama are sitting pretty. Anyone north of I20 will do ok but messy. South of I20 cross your fingers, toes, and anything else you can think of and pray the south trend continues. Just my 2 cents probable worth less
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Good response from Jimmy but thought I'd chime in. You're probably in a pretty good spot actually, just looking at the map. But we all need a stronger northern jet stream press (not too strong, don't want too much supression) while keeping the low tracking in the gulf, not over land. We want the low to track more east than NE and stay relatively weak. It would really help if there were a better H pressure to our north to provide a better cold feed; we need ongoing cold air advection feeding in throughout the storm to help cancel out the affects of warm air advection, but we usually see a lot of weakening and retreating highs in these setups. Mixing is hard to avoid but is possible if the cold feed can outlast the WAA. You may actually do a bit better being West of the Apps, those mountains are beautiful but tend to complcate weather.
iGRXY
Member
NAM looks less positively tilted this runiGRXY
Member
Oh yeah we were going to get NAM'd if this kept goingiGRXY
Member
Depends on your location tbh. Means a more amped LP.
NBAcentel
Member
A winter storm is coming boys
SnowwxAtl
Member
In Atlanta...probably not...more ice than snow but the NAM can't be trust that far out.
End of the NAM. Not too shabby!
Stormlover
Member
nam at 6am 
iGRXY
Member
Yeah fro I was just about to post them DPs, that's a stout CAD look on the NAM
RU kidding me? A frigid 1030 high sliding in tandem to a CAD position. SLP off shore of Morgan City. Precip overspreading the SE.
Pinch me.
Pinch me.
CAD there will be a moisture issue closer you get to Mount Airy.
Snowlover34
Member
I wonder what it would take for this to be a slow moving system?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
For what it's worth, FV3 high-res
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Man that looks juiced! Normally I would take that look every time. However, I think the NAM tends to over juice and over amp, in its long range. I'd like to see that ice line another 50 miles south, but it's hard not to like that for many of us.