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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Stormsfury said:
Normally, I'm totally in agreement with the wedging, even in-situ winning. However, the GFS 850mb winds depicted screaming from the SSW in spits over 65kts, will wreck a wedge faster than a dog discovering a steak the first time. Provided the GFS verbatim is correct.

Today, it was no problem getting strong southerly flow to warm it in the Lowcountry of SC due to the SFC low being well NW of us.

My gut is mixed on our next system if the wedge breaks this far south (probably still warm enough to not be an ice issue down here), but what kind of in-situ lays out and IF some sort of s/w sfc mesohigh pops up say in VA/NC in response of evaporation cooling forces... just enough, with more solid precip trying to hold Temps at the SFC down, despite WAA ducting over the top. That's where I'm mixed with this system of if it can, or can't. I simply don't know yet.

Edit: just thought of this. I wonder if the GFS is trying to develop the Piedmont mesolow that we sometimes see in Carolina severe situations at times or even on some overperforming clippers.
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Absolutely and not saying it hasn't happened or won't happen but that track verbatim is uncommon. I'm just thinking if it really amps and CAD is that weak it's going more west than that. If it's trying to develop the mesolow this will indeed be a dynamic system with some strong storms in the warm sector, still lots to work out obviously
 
jrips27 said:
Still a lot of variability. Some bombs but also a lot of whiffs
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ForsythSnow said:
At just a few less bombs than whiffs and mostly acceptable hits, I think there's a pretty good sitting for N GA on this. P24 and 12 and 15 I'd have to wonder how that would happen
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Very much appreciate both of your contributions to to this forum for our area, I think I speak for everyone.
 
Funny how we're coming back to this topic, but at hr 93, you can see the difference between the GFS and Euro. May have been mentioned earlier, but the ridge thru Montana has rolled over to the right more on the Euro (more anticyclonic wave break). This slows the ejection of the baja wave on the Euro compared to the GFS. It also allows the central plains trough to drop in farther west on the GFS. In addition, the 50/50 low on the Euro hasn't escaped as much and is extending farther south. All of these act to lessen the amount of ridging along the east coast and allow the GFS to phase more cleanly into a stronger storm with more amplitude on its east side...so it's warmer storm, with a more expansive precip shield to the NW.

This is the type of thing I would not want to bet against the Euro on, but it's probably not 100% correct either. Maybe give it 70% Euro / 30% GFS blend

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I think the GFS storm track over central North Carolina in the latest run is highly unlikely. I think it will eventually fold and move more southeast in line with most of the other models. On the other hand it may be on to something with the rapid erosion of the CAD. What worries me with this system is that there is not a high pressure system to lock in and reinforce the CAD during the storm. Temperatures have been trending colder but they have a ways to go before I can be confident that this will be primarily a winter weather event in the RDU area.
 
weather bubba said:
I think the GFS storm track over central North Carolina in the latest run is highly unlikely. I think it will eventually fold and move more southeast in line with most of the other models. On the other hand it may be on to something with the rapid erosion of the CAD. What worries me with this system is that there is not a high pressure system to lock in and reinforce the CAD during the storm. Temperatures have been trending colder but they have a ways to go before I can be confident that this will be primarily a winter weather event in the RDU area.
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Much rather have the Euro on our side though like we have now.
 
weather bubba said:
I think the GFS storm track over central North Carolina in the latest run is highly unlikely. I think it will eventually fold and move more southeast in line with most of the other models. On the other hand it may be on to something with the rapid erosion of the CAD. What worries me with this system is that there is not a high pressure system to lock in and reinforce the CAD during the storm. Temperatures have been trending colder but they have a ways to go before I can be confident that this will be primarily a winter weather event in the RDU area.
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I think there is a good deal of merit to the point made by others upthread about the nature of this non-reinforcing, shallow CAD. An amped up system would, in fact, scour it out pretty effectively.

That said, I have seen models do what the GFS is attempting, only to correct south and east as we close in. It may be that the CAD trends a little stronger in time. That is not uncommon, even when there is no reinforcing HP. It may be that the system does really wind up.

It is possible, even likely, that such a system would run inland. That scenario is certainly not something to take off the table. However, I feel that the GFS, trying track the storm between GSO and RDU, is out to lunch. Up through the coastal plain? Yeah, ok, I'll bite on that.
 
carolinachaos said:
Can you explain what that means to the novices on the board? More warm air off the ocean?


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Confluence suppresses and/or shreds storms and can locks in high pressure. Nothing is 100% in weather except that it doesn't snow at Rain Cold's house. But confluence to our north/northeast is good for increasing wintry weather chances for us down here, unless it's overwhelming (cold and dry). That's the bottom line.
 
KyloG said:
Past 11 EPS numbers…fairly easy to see a major winter event for large portion of the SE is coming.

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I think the trends are easy to see,
The same thing happened downstream
In ArkLaTexas, Miss & Tenn.
I'd imagine those blues will be filling in further east with later modeling unless the atmosphere changes from this point.
Which is still a possibility but I think the chances are growing for a Miller A storm with a great track and some very good totals in the sweet spots for this storm on the NW side of that track.
I'm feeling really good where I'm at!
 
For those in NC/SC (and even GA), I'll say we have a long ways to go. Tempting to zero in on the details and hyperfocus on slight shifts--even favoring whatever model(s) delivers the best outcome in our MBY. But these exact details likely won't resolve until 24-48 hours before onset. (especially in CAD events)

Would also strongly caution against reading too much into freezing rain/snow amounts modeled in CAD areas for reasons others have alluded to. (snow can also include other ptypes at this stage, and frz rain almost always overdepicted)

Regardless, my current forecast for RDU is at least 2 inches of predominantly concrete. I love snow, but I'll trade it for pingers if there's a good chance it gets washed away by cold rain.
 
Rain Cold said:
Confluence suppresses and/or shreds storms and can locks in high pressure. Nothing is 100% in weather except that it doesn't snow at Rain Cold's house. But confluence to our north/northeast is good for increasing wintry weather chances for us down here, unless it's overwhelming (cold and dry). That's the bottom line.
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Hey man you can keep them snow shields in Raleigh. Don't bring that mojo to my neck of the woods 😂 Really just depends on the track for our area. I see some similarities to January 22. We were forecasted to change over to sleet during that storm but CAD saved the day and we didn't. Stayed snow throughout.
 
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