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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Mitch West said:
Idk how the Low would plow that far inland. Ain’t no way.
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That's hilarious, I just said the same thing on X. The eastern edge of the CAD would have to erode very quickly. Anything is possible, but my guess is that the GFS is being a bit too hasty in doing so. If we can maintain the general trends of the day through the night, I'll feel much better about a widespread major winter storm.

This is fun again.
 
Right now for my backyard and most of the ATL area, we're looking at a frontend thump of snow from the FGEN band, switch over to sleet/ice(could still be snow if you're further north), then probably a switch back to light snow on the backend. I think what we're going to want to see is the front end band overperform which actually tends to happen quite often in these types of setups.

I mocked the Graphcast model earlier, but maybe it was onto something.
 
Rain Cold said:
That's hilarious, I just said the same thing on X. The eastern edge of the CAD would have to erode very quickly. Anything is possible, but my guess is that the GFS is being a bit too hasty in doing so. If we can maintain the general trends of the day through the night, I'll feel much better about a widespread major winter storm.

This is fun again.
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I mean the GFS is crappy with CAD.
 
Morehead city, (few miles above Me, More or less, in @Downeastnc AO.. )

**
Friday-Saturday...The pattern becomes unsettled towards the end of
the week as a potential low forms from along the sub-tropical jet.
There are still differences in the timing, placement, and overall
formation of this low, but the general consensus is for a low to
develop in the Gulf and track northeastward up the southeast coast.
The most recent run of the Canadian is now more in line with the GFS
and European models, which shows a strong low (potentially sub-1000
mb) moving across ENC on Saturday morning. NBM PTYPE probs for snow
or a wintry mix are ~30-40% for much of the coastal plain starting
Friday night and through Saturday morning...
before transitioning to
rain.
 
Mitch West said:
Idk how the Low would plow that far inland. Ain’t no way.
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this is not name brand cad. it's great value. Not even in the 1020s
1736202895936.png

cad erodes when the turbulent interface of screaming upper level winds erode into the dome. unfortunately this dome is weak and these winds are strong:

1736203035770.png
so i could totally see something more inland here.

the good news is that i think this run takes both the worse attributes of the gfs and euro to get this solution. the vort max this run gets strung out over texas which means the shortwave coming from the midwest can't really dig further. because of that it gets negative tilt at a higher latitude and jolts everything north. the euro and others don't have that particular diving shortwave feature which is why their precip is "slidier" for lack of a better term
1736203181968.png
so warmer run but no need to burn it all down to me
 
Metwannabe said:
I'll say this just from experience, either that lp runs the apps, miller B's or runs up the coast, it's not going up central Carolina's like that...no way no how
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I feel like it can. Like Ross just said, where’s the big high over top giving legit CAD? GFS camp is def getting more isolated tho and I think we need to keep rooting against its solution
 
jackendrickwx said:
I feel like it can. Like Ross just said, where’s the big high over top giving legit CAD? GFS camp is def getting more isolated tho and I think we need to keep rooting against its solution
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I guess my point is this, if the CAD is that weak or almost non-existent, then the low is going further inland. The reason the GFS sends up that track is because there is CAD in place and we've seen a gazillion times over the years, CAD just don't erode that quicky. So if CAD it's east of that or no CAD with an amped system going west..... jmho
 
Rain Cold said:
That's hilarious, I just said the same thing on X. The eastern edge of the CAD would have to erode very quickly. Anything is possible, but my guess is that the GFS is being a bit too hasty in doing so. If we can maintain the general trends of the day through the night, I'll feel much better about a widespread major winter storm.

This is fun again.
Click to expand...

Bro, you just killed it. Incoming Apps runners overnight, lol. We've got such a long way to go. Tomorrows just Tuesday, and it's not supposed to get here till Friday night! 😵‍💫

I'm still going with AIFS and EPS on the low track. Classic Miller A. Now that you're here with us on the high side of 77 you shouldn't mind if it amps a bit and hugs the coast...lol
 
If the 18z GFS solution verified, I 100% believe the surface low could track inland and had mentioned that already. As others have mentioned, there's no strong CAD surface high to the north, and you've got very strong top down erosion of the in-situ CAD wedge with 30kts of wind just off the deck. That wedge would be history in no time on the eastern flank in the Carolinas and GA in that environment. The center may not track over or near RDU, but somewhere along I-95 or between there and the coast? Definitely could happen if the H5 trough goes neg. tilt.
gfs_2025010618_fh108_sounding_35.89N_78.75W.png
 
Can someone explain why it’s so much ice if this is not a Miller B? I thought low pressure going up the coast would be either Rain/snow a true Miller A.
 
ILMRoss said:
this is not name brand cad. it's great value. Not even in the 1020s
View attachment 160498

cad erodes when the turbulent interface of screaming upper level winds erode into the dome. unfortunately this dome is weak and these winds are strong:

View attachment 160500
so i could totally see something more inland here.

the good news is that i think this run takes both the worse attributes of the gfs and euro to get this solution. the vort max this run gets strung out over texas which means the shortwave coming from the midwest can't really dig further. because of that it gets negative tilt at a higher latitude and jolts everything north. the euro and others don't have that particular diving shortwave feature which is why their precip is "slidier" for lack of a better term
View attachment 160502
so warmer run but no need to burn it all down to me
Click to expand...

Thanks for pointing that out. Many North Carolina members are on the ledge this evening.
 
f4b8e34aa2f45cbe583a797158c0a73a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Metwannabe said:
I guess my point is this, if the CAD is that weak or almost non-existent, then the low is going further inland. The reason the GFS sends up that track is because there is CAD in place and we've seen a gazillion times over the years, CAD just don't erode that quicky. So if CAD it's east of that or no CAD with an amped system going west..... jmho
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Normally, I'm totally in agreement with the wedging, even in-situ winning. However, the GFS 850mb winds depicted screaming from the SSW in spits over 65kts, will wreck a wedge faster than a dog discovering a steak the first time. Provided the GFS verbatim is correct.

Today, it was no problem getting strong southerly flow to warm it in the Lowcountry of SC due to the SFC low being well NW of us.

My gut is mixed on our next system if the wedge breaks this far south (probably still warm enough to not be an ice issue down here), but what kind of in-situ lays out and IF some sort of s/w sfc mesohigh pops up say in VA/NC in response of evaporation cooling forces... just enough, with more solid precip trying to hold Temps at the SFC down, despite WAA ducting over the top. That's where I'm mixed with this system of if it can, or can't. I simply don't know yet.

Edit: just thought of this. I wonder if the GFS is trying to develop the Piedmont mesolow that we sometimes see in Carolina severe situations at times or even on some overperforming clippers.
 
wxdaniel said:
Thanks for pointing that out. Many North Carolina members are on the ledge this evening.
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i really wouldn't be on the ledge, i think a lot of solutions are still in play. This is just typical southern snow forecasting. DC always gets a treat or two. Unfortunately I don't think any suite is going to be particularly revelatory, instead we're just going to narrow the range of outcomes by like 8%. just be patient
 
Stormsfury said:
Normally, I'm totally in agreement with the wedging, even in-situ winning. However, the GFS 850mb winds depicted screaming from the SSW in spits over 65kts, will wreck a wedge faster than a dog discovering a steak the first time. Provided the GFS verbatim is correct.

Today, it was no problem getting strong southerly flow to warm it in the Lowcountry of SC due to the SFC low being well NW of us.

My gut is mixed on our next system if the wedge breaks this far south (probably still warm enough to not be an ice issue down here), but what kind of in-situ lays out and IF some sort of s/w sfc mesohigh pops up say in VA/NC in response of evaporation cooling forces... just enough, with more solid precip trying to hold Temps at the SFC down, despite WAA ducting over the top. That's where I'm mixed with this system of if it can, or can't. I simply don't know yet.

Edit: just thought of this. I wonder if the GFS is trying to develop the Piedmont mesolow that we sometimes see in Carolina severe situations at times or even on some overperforming clippers.
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Could the wedge get stronger with future model runs
 
The window for nothing in central NC is definitely not closed. Odds have decreased I’d say, but you just can’t count out these inland solutions on the GFS and its ensembles. Would love to see -some- kind of step away from what it’s been fairly consistent on the last several runs

As far as the upstate, this is looking more and more like it can be an all frozen event for 85->north. Some have already compared this one to 1/16/22. I’d say totals like that are unlikely and mixed types are more likely than they were with that one atp.
 
Stormsfury said:
Normally, I'm totally in agreement with the wedging, even in-situ winning. However, the GFS 850mb winds depicted screaming from the SSW in spits over 65kts, will wreck a wedge faster than a dog discovering a steak the first time. Provided the GFS verbatim is correct.

Today, it was no problem getting strong southerly flow to warm it in the Lowcountry of SC due to the SFC low being well NW of us.

My gut is mixed on our next system if the wedge breaks this far south (probably still warm enough to not be an ice issue down here), but what kind of in-situ lays out and IF some sort of s/w sfc mesohigh pops up say in VA/NC in response of evaporation cooling forces... just enough, with more solid precip trying to hold Temps at the SFC down, despite WAA ducting over the top. That's where I'm mixed with this system of if it can, or can't. I simply don't know yet.

Edit: just thought of this. I wonder if the GFS is trying to develop the Piedmont mesolow that we sometimes see in Carolina severe situations at times or even on some overperforming clippers.
Click to expand...
It’s been so long since I tracked a storm I forgot how good at this you are.
 
SnowwxAtl said:
Could the wedge get stronger with future model runs
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Absolutely... these airmasses can be stubborn as hell to shove out, especially with what I laid out as possible. But it's also quite possible, the modeled upper wind fields by the GFS could be correct, and pretty much rain/dampen the parade. We're still going to need some more time to be a lot more confident
 
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