Tarheelwx
Member
Maybe for Alabama, but not necessarily for NC Cad areas. Sure a nice parent high is much more preferable, but certainly not a requirement here in NC CAD. TW
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
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LovingGulfLows
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- Joined
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Right now for my backyard and most of the ATL area, we're looking at a frontend thump of snow from the FGEN band, switch over to sleet/ice(could still be snow if you're further north), then probably a switch back to light snow on the backend. I think what we're going to want to see is the front end band overperform which actually tends to happen quite often in these types of setups.
I mocked the Graphcast model earlier, but maybe it was onto something.
I mocked the Graphcast model earlier, but maybe it was onto something.
18z GEFS with many more members further south with frozen precip
I mean the GFS is crappy with CAD.
SnowNiner
Member
For SC and GA. Still disappointingly low in NC again.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GFS will do the usual and cave to the Euro/other guidance…sad state of affairs lol
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NBAcentel
Member
12z spire looks similar to the GFS 
That mean gonna skyrocket
Stormlover
Member
Are you serious? I think he's on to something
One trend seems to be consistent today....colder, but will it be enough?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I was referring to the GFS being a subpar model, I agree with him for sure.
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Woah! GEFS big increase for I-20. Still rolling so areas further east may have more left to go
There will be mixing issues, always count on that! Jan 88 storm with temps in the 10’s in Gastonia/Charlotte area, mixed with freezing rain and sleet at the end, last few hours
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Hopefully that’s got a few more frames to go for NC
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Morehead city, (few miles above Me, More or less, in @Downeastnc AO.. )
**
Friday-Saturday...The pattern becomes unsettled towards the end of
the week as a potential low forms from along the sub-tropical jet.
There are still differences in the timing, placement, and overall
formation of this low, but the general consensus is for a low to
develop in the Gulf and track northeastward up the southeast coast.
The most recent run of the Canadian is now more in line with the GFS
and European models, which shows a strong low (potentially sub-1000
mb) moving across ENC on Saturday morning. NBM PTYPE probs for snow
or a wintry mix are ~30-40% for much of the coastal plain starting
Friday night and through Saturday morning...
before transitioning to
rain.
**
Friday-Saturday...The pattern becomes unsettled towards the end of
the week as a potential low forms from along the sub-tropical jet.
There are still differences in the timing, placement, and overall
formation of this low, but the general consensus is for a low to
develop in the Gulf and track northeastward up the southeast coast.
The most recent run of the Canadian is now more in line with the GFS
and European models, which shows a strong low (potentially sub-1000
mb) moving across ENC on Saturday morning. NBM PTYPE probs for snow
or a wintry mix are ~30-40% for much of the coastal plain starting
Friday night and through Saturday morning...
before transitioning to
rain.
This should be about it for the run
this is not name brand cad. it's great value. Not even in the 1020s
cad erodes when the turbulent interface of screaming upper level winds erode into the dome. unfortunately this dome is weak and these winds are strong:
so i could totally see something more inland here.
the good news is that i think this run takes both the worse attributes of the gfs and euro to get this solution. the vort max this run gets strung out over texas which means the shortwave coming from the midwest can't really dig further. because of that it gets negative tilt at a higher latitude and jolts everything north. the euro and others don't have that particular diving shortwave feature which is why their precip is "slidier" for lack of a better term
so warmer run but no need to burn it all down to me
I'll say this just from experience, either that lp runs the apps, miller B's or runs up the coast, it's not going up central Carolina's like that...no way no how
I feel like it can. Like Ross just said, where’s the big high over top giving legit CAD? GFS camp is def getting more isolated tho and I think we need to keep rooting against its solution
A lot of wish casting going on. Those of us that are still in play would appreciate since it's "not as bad in your back yard" you would treat it as if it were. Don't worry, there will be other storms.
I guess my point is this, if the CAD is that weak or almost non-existent, then the low is going further inland. The reason the GFS sends up that track is because there is CAD in place and we've seen a gazillion times over the years, CAD just don't erode that quicky. So if CAD it's east of that or no CAD with an amped system going west..... jmho
Bigedd09
Member
looks a lot like euro AI
SnowNiner
Member
Bro, you just killed it. Incoming Apps runners overnight, lol. We've got such a long way to go. Tomorrows just Tuesday, and it's not supposed to get here till Friday night!
I'm still going with AIFS and EPS on the low track. Classic Miller A. Now that you're here with us on the high side of 77 you shouldn't mind if it amps a bit and hugs the coast...lol
If the 18z GFS solution verified, I 100% believe the surface low could track inland and had mentioned that already. As others have mentioned, there's no strong CAD surface high to the north, and you've got very strong top down erosion of the in-situ CAD wedge with 30kts of wind just off the deck. That wedge would be history in no time on the eastern flank in the Carolinas and GA in that environment. The center may not track over or near RDU, but somewhere along I-95 or between there and the coast? Definitely could happen if the H5 trough goes neg. tilt.
Icestorm336
Member
Can someone explain why it’s so much ice if this is not a Miller B? I thought low pressure going up the coast would be either Rain/snow a true Miller A.
Thanks for pointing that out. Many North Carolina members are on the ledge this evening.
NEGaweather
Member
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TWC has named the Winter Storm Cora.
Still a lot of variability. Some bombs but also a lot of whiffs
Stormsfury
Member
Normally, I'm totally in agreement with the wedging, even in-situ winning. However, the GFS 850mb winds depicted screaming from the SSW in spits over 65kts, will wreck a wedge faster than a dog discovering a steak the first time. Provided the GFS verbatim is correct.
Today, it was no problem getting strong southerly flow to warm it in the Lowcountry of SC due to the SFC low being well NW of us.
My gut is mixed on our next system if the wedge breaks this far south (probably still warm enough to not be an ice issue down here), but what kind of in-situ lays out and IF some sort of s/w sfc mesohigh pops up say in VA/NC in response of evaporation cooling forces... just enough, with more solid precip trying to hold Temps at the SFC down, despite WAA ducting over the top. That's where I'm mixed with this system of if it can, or can't. I simply don't know yet.
Edit: just thought of this. I wonder if the GFS is trying to develop the Piedmont mesolow that we sometimes see in Carolina severe situations at times or even on some overperforming clippers.
i really wouldn't be on the ledge, i think a lot of solutions are still in play. This is just typical southern snow forecasting. DC always gets a treat or two. Unfortunately I don't think any suite is going to be particularly revelatory, instead we're just going to narrow the range of outcomes by like 8%. just be patient
Stormlover
Member
Chief Meteorologist Brad Travis is gearing up
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Where's a good place to buy a snow shovel? Asking for a friend
Brad Travis WAFF 48 Meteorologist
Where's a good place to buy a snow shovel? Asking for a friend
SnowwxAtl
Member
Could the wedge get stronger with future model runs
The window for nothing in central NC is definitely not closed. Odds have decreased I’d say, but you just can’t count out these inland solutions on the GFS and its ensembles. Would love to see -some- kind of step away from what it’s been fairly consistent on the last several runs
As far as the upstate, this is looking more and more like it can be an all frozen event for 85->north. Some have already compared this one to 1/16/22. I’d say totals like that are unlikely and mixed types are more likely than they were with that one atp.
As far as the upstate, this is looking more and more like it can be an all frozen event for 85->north. Some have already compared this one to 1/16/22. I’d say totals like that are unlikely and mixed types are more likely than they were with that one atp.
beanskip
Member
It’s been so long since I tracked a storm I forgot how good at this you are.
Stormsfury
Member
Absolutely... these airmasses can be stubborn as hell to shove out, especially with what I laid out as possible. But it's also quite possible, the modeled upper wind fields by the GFS could be correct, and pretty much rain/dampen the parade. We're still going to need some more time to be a lot more confident
ForsythSnow
Moderator
At just a few less bombs than whiffs and mostly acceptable hits, I think there's a pretty good sitting for N GA on this. P24 and 12 and 15 I'd have to wonder how that would happen
Absolutely and not saying it hasn't happened or won't happen but that track verbatim is uncommon. I'm just thinking if it really amps and CAD is that weak it's going more west than that. If it's trying to develop the mesolow this will indeed be a dynamic system with some strong storms in the warm sector, still lots to work out obviously