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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

That was an amped system on the NAM which bodes well for the Middle and Deep South but not so well for folks in the eastern portion of the Southeast unless the low pressure track stays far enough east when it makes its run up the Atlantic coast to prevent warm air advection. I'd love to see a storm where everyone gets in on the action but they are very hard to come by.
 
weather bubba said:
That was an amped system on the NAM which bodes well for the Middle and Deep South but not so well for folks in the eastern portion of the Southeast unless the low pressure track stays far enough east when it makes its run up the Atlantic coast to prevent warm air advection. I'd love to see a storm where everyone gets in on the action but they are very hard to come by.
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Should at least be sn to ip to zr in many of those locations, does it obliterate the CAD like the GFS did... who knows, we're trying to extrapolate the NAM which is dangerous lol. But that high is in a decent spot and the antecedent airmass is cold and very dry, which bodes well for areas east.
 
**Note to our new members**

Take those snow maps being posted, especially those from Tropical Tidbits, with a huge grain of salt. They show all frozen precip as snow, meaning that even in location where it's sleet and/or freezing rain, those maps are calculating it as snow. Important to pay attention to precip types, etc take in numerous post/comments to get a better idea then a colorful snow map.
 
I’m so used to just looking for a good winter pattern 15 days down the road that it’s weird seeing an actual winter storm on the NAM. It startles me a bit

But in simple terms, if the height lines are running from Wyoming to Arizona into the Baja low - Good ✅ NAM is in the good camp

If the lines are running from Wyoming to New Mexico - Bad ❌ (GFS like)

You can reference my post from 7pm or so as to why this is

95374874-E6D1-43E6-AD4D-25C6D8B55DD6.png
 
SnowwxAtl said:
Nit- picking...I don't like ATL dew point at 20...I need teens please 🤣🤣🤣
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That 20 degree DP should be sufficient enough since the 2m temp is 31 during that timeframe so we’ll likely wetbulb into the mid-upper 20s regardless as that northern fringe of precipitation moves in.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
That 20 degree DP should be sufficient enough since the 2m temp is 31 during that timeframe so we’ll likely wetbulb into the mid-upper 20s regardless as that northern fringe of precipitation moves in.
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I know I was joking around...just saw dew points lower around ATL. Probably heat island effect.
 
I think dews that are too low is another bias of the long range NAM, maybe the NAM in general. Sometimes it gets it right but I think it often is too low; sometimes way too low. Still, add a few degrees to this map and many would still be in a good place; I mean single digits from CAE to AHN!

1736218675365.png


Maybe a met could chime in, but this really looks like the NAM is in the process of trying to ramp this thing up big time; if it went a few more frames. The convection near the gulf and the orientation of the transition line looks like a process of amplification; much like a bow echo radar in summer thunderstorms. If that is the case, we would not want that East of there.

1736218974198.png
 
albertwilsonjr said:
Can you explain what this would do


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One of the worries I've had for this system is the lack of a fresh source of cold air from the NE. That surface set up with a gulf low in that position and a decent meso high sliding into the Mid-Atlantic would keep the surface cold enough on a stiff NE and ENE CAD wind for Atlanta and the north and east burbs at a minimum. It should hold the snow change over to ZR longer after a nice initial thump.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I think dews that are too low is another bias of the long range NAM, maybe the NAM in general. Sometimes it gets it right but I think it often is too low; sometimes way too low. Still, add a few degrees to this map and many would still be in a good place; I mean single digits from CAE to AHN!

View attachment 160581


Maybe a met could chime in, but this really looks like the NAM is in the process of trying to ramp this thing up big time; if it went a few more frames. The convection near the gulf and the orientation of the transition line looks like a process of amplification; much like a bow echo radar in summer thunderstorms. If that is the case, we would not want that East of there.

View attachment 160582
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If you look at the 500mb chart, the press from the northern stream out ahead of the low would be enough to keep the track flatter along the Gulf Coast
 
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