Cad Wedge NC
Member
Give us your thoughts on today's trends. This stronger northern stream interaction has everybody's attention. However, the GFS gives us pause.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
For ex, this icon run
This big graphcast run from Friday
Big AI run from Friday as well
Xlhunter3
Member
You aren’t joking - definitely wouldn’t have to worry about anything not being frozen haha
WFFaithful
Member
Look at that 1032 in WV!
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
RGEM would be a little too strong and north for a good portion of the board. Let’s remember to not jump too quick to a solution we like.
Still expecting this thing to wind up tighter? LP at 995 over the marine base on my map is a bit close for what happens in Wake county
Reminder that it is Monday night and there is still such a long way to go in this one
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
For anyone new to the board, Canadian models are always too cold at the surface.
Avalanche
Member
that 850 stays at or below zero!!! We have a chance here in the western Triangle!!!!
That's got to be a misprint. The QA was pretty shoddy on this run.
NCSNOW
Member
Thats where everyone upstate- east should focus now. Key to whats gonna happen p type.That trackView attachment 160615
We need it to trend south from here until 12 hours before the event.
I would still like to see another run of the Pangu because it was hitting home runs too. The model verification scores for the last 3 winters were GFS Graphcast & Euro AI, then down a level to Pangu & Euro, then down a level to UKMet
No doubt about it - something was definitely off
When you are on the line at RDU 4 days out, I think we all know how it ends.
I think we are looking at a True Miller A.
We are going to start to see 8-12 swaths across a broad area from Southern Tenn to the Northern parts of Miss, Bama, & GA,
Then turn the corner and stretch up the 85 corridor in the Carolinas.
Also with that meso H setting up somewhere in the Virginias and with the path of the storm the apps may help with a lee side enhancement instead of dry slotting us!
So those totals may get higher in the Carolinas East of the apps if that low doesn't transfer!
We deserve this ladies & gentlemen East of the apps we have paid our dues.
NCSNOW
Member
Hopefully at the mouth of the Delmarva as it pivots.
Razor thin as always on these seaboard storms
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Icon looked great here but that sharp drop off 40 miles south makes me want to vomit.
You'd think so, and I'm sure it's way too cold. But, the CMC has been 5-10 degrees colder than other models for several runs now too.
1018 HP on top of metwannabe’s house might do it
Temps are crazy, but the pattern (ICON, GEFS, EURO AI) isn’t and models are starting to agree. IMO
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Don’t see a whole lot of changes with the GFS through hour 36
NCSNOW
Member
Except 36 hrs ago.
iGRXY
Member
GFS is also slower with the S/W thru 30
Guys lets stay on topic..
The benchmark is Friday at 15z. Want to see the height lines running from Wyoming to Arizona, not Wyoming to New Mexico. Different model sites have different number of contours. It's not the number of contours, just the angle of the lines.
Here the Icon is in the bad camp with the lines running from WY to NM - which is to 1300's point, that we are playing with fire with that look because the northern stream trough in Iowa is allowed to drop in way west. The fact that the ICON still produced a good, cold storm for some is a good sign.....but the GFS and ICON have been the most amplified / the most dangerous with temperatures aloft
weather bubba
Member
At 48 hours it looks like the GFS is holding serve. The storm is sitting almost in the same spot it was during the previous run.
I’ll just say this, when I start getting 7 contours of snow depth color on top of my county with a 4 day lead time I get triggered
NCSNOW
Member
Gfs aint gone budge with inland track once again. ME THINKS. Flunked the Griteater Test.
I feel like we’d all be a bit surprised if this one came south much more. Triad’s in a good spot
weather bubba
Member
At 60 hours the low pressure is a little further east and weaker than the previous run.
RollTide18
Member
Best case scenario is that we get a wintry mix on the front end, rain during the day Friday and some snow showers on the back end.
beanskip
Member
Pretty significant changes at 60 hours (good ones, I think). The Baja low is farther west (as both the NAM and ICON just depicted). Heights lower downstream vs. prior runs. Northern stream ahead of the bowling ball.
Edit: Tilt not as good through 72, though -- seems like surface reflection weaker -- hopefully it perks up later in run.
Edit: Tilt not as good through 72, though -- seems like surface reflection weaker -- hopefully it perks up later in run.
I’m right there with you. Let’s drop that drop off about 60 miles further south between now and Thursday evening before the you know what trend. After February 2015, January 2017, and December 2018 and the snowless last 3 years, us Union County folks deserve this one.
NCSNOW
Member
Its to fast with the HP over wva scooting east ahead of storm. Icon worked in tandem
Gorgeous
